Ji Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 My view today...still lame for nemacolin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Last year's Jan storm was great. Nothing can make up for the horrendous year we've had so far, but that storm was pretty great. Long duration cold smoke. Made the mistake of staying up for that late night meso which turned out to be the lowest rates of the 30 hour storm haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Last year's Jan storm was great. Nothing can make up for the horrendous year we've had so far, but that storm was pretty great. Long duration cold smoke. Made the mistake of staying up for that late night meso which turned out to be the lowest rates of the 30 hour storm haha Whoa! Good to hear from you. Been busy this winter!? Said nobody ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 43 minutes ago, Ji said: My view today...still lame for nemacolin Where is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Keweenaw County in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, that little jut of land surrounded by Lake Superior. Other than the West that's where the snow is. Calumet (Tamarack loc.) Day: 1.9 Season: 231.8 On Ground: 47 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Scraff said: Whoa! Good to hear from you. Been busy this winter!? Said nobody ever. Heya! I've been good. Busy with school, but I guess it's good that I'm not being distracted by winter weather threats? I've been checking in every once in a while though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Heya! I've been good. Busy with school, but I guess it's good that I'm not being distracted by winter weather threats? I've been checking in every once in a while though Yes--you have been all the better for being too busy to check in here regularly! (But undoubtedly you've felt the crapiness of the pattern, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Congrats Norfolk for the win this dumpster fire winter. 1000% it wont happenSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Congrats Norfolk for the win this dumpster fire winter. 1000% it wont happen Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk I’ll take that. Seeing snow to our South is a nice development. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Congrats Norfolk for the win this dumpster fire winter. 1000% it wont happen Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk There is a thread for posting random op run digital snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 There is a thread for posting random op run digital snow maps. Yea I know but we can start with a legit threat on this since its 10 day away. What else could go wrong, a cutter or OTS.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 9 hours ago, psuhoffman said: 6.6” isn’t significant? If you want to use that storm as the basis to justify the last 4 years as being "normal". No. It isn't. Besides, that wasn't the point. The jackpot was so small that even though it happened north of DC, BWI (which is south of Baltimore) only managed 6.6. That is a very small compact area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 GEFS has been incrementally trying to get to a more favorable pattern in the LR. This is a pretty decent look and would be workable. Still too much blue up top. Not super cold, but at least chilly. EPS persists with too much AK trough and mild air in our source region. GEPS looks kinda decent, but not as good as the GEFS- sort of in between the other 2. So as usual, we wait. At least there are some signs of possible changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 mid-long range discussion thread? can't find it. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 GEFS has been incrementally trying to get to a more favorable pattern in the LR. This is a pretty decent look and would be workable. Still too much blue up top. Not super cold, but at least chilly. EPS persists with too much AK trough and mild air in our source region. GEPS looks kinda decent, but not as good as the GEFS- sort of in between the other 2. So as usual, we wait. At least there are some signs of possible changes.I noticed eps had some blue in the southeast around feb 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: GEFS has been incrementally trying to get to a more favorable pattern in the LR. This is a pretty decent look and would be workable. Still too much blue up top. Not super cold, but at least chilly. EPS persists with too much AK trough and mild air in our source region. GEPS looks kinda decent, but not as good as the GEFS- sort of in between the other 2. So as usual, we wait. At least there are some signs of possible changes. I noticed eps had some blue in the southeast around feb 20 At this point I am just monitoring the big picture LW pattern for possible favorable shifts. Too far out to get into details. We are stuck in the suck for at least the next 10 days in all likelihood. Problem with the EPS in the LR is it maintains a strong AK vortex that just pumps Pacific air into N America. No legit cold air even close to us at day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 At this point I am just monitoring the big picture LW pattern for possible favorable shifts. Too far out to get into details. We are stuck in the suck for at least the next 10 days in all likelihood. Problem with the EPS in the LR is it maintains a strong AK vortex that just pumps Pacific air into N America. No legit cold air even close to us at day 15.Yep...euro shows all blue in the same areas that we talk about the ridge bridge smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ji said: 37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: At this point I am just monitoring the big picture LW pattern for possible favorable shifts. Too far out to get into details. We are stuck in the suck for at least the next 10 days in all likelihood. Problem with the EPS in the LR is it maintains a strong AK vortex that just pumps Pacific air into N America. No legit cold air even close to us at day 15. Yep...euro shows all blue in the same areas that we talk about the ridge bridge smh Had some hopes for that Ridge Bridge to defray some of the suckage. But alas, that was just another pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VelociChicken Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 10 hours ago, benjammin said: Keweenaw County in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, that little jut of land surrounded by Lake Superior. Other than the West that's where the snow is. Calumet (Tamarack loc.) Day: 1.9 Season: 231.8 On Ground: 47 That's where I plan on retiring to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Unfortunately, the precipitation arrives during the afternoon of the following day so the CAD better be stout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 https://m.jpost.com/International/El-Niño-could-hit-at-the-end-of-2020-physicists-warn-612747 El Niño 2020-21 Let's GO! And I don't mean these stupid fake ninos of the last couple years. Bonafide MOD NINO...(but not a super one...might not do us much good, lol) And I don't care how this is 9 months too early...want long range? Here's your long range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Actually same day.. just afternoon . Gfs erodes it quickly . Sunday I'm referring to Got it - could be close for some of our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Don’t think I can remember a year with a more consistent, repetitive storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t think I can remember a year with a more consistent, repetitive storm track Don't worry. when May comes around we'll have tons of lows bombing off the coast with rain in the 50s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t think I can remember a year with a more consistent, repetitive storm track 2011-12 was warm with unrelenting west tracks. Wasn't as wet as this year though iirc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 There's one more chance the MJO swings out to where we want it, but we won't know for another couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 2011-12 was warm with unrelenting west tracks. Wasn't as wet as this year though iirc. Okay...so then what happened in the following year? (2012-13) Nina? (looks like that was crappy...but with 8.7 inches instead of 1.8, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Okay...so then what happened in the following year? Nina? (looks like that was crappy...but with 8.7 inches instead of 1.8, lol) It wasn’t too bad. There was snow around Christmas, and I had over 20” in March but don’t remember much in between. Its also the year @Bob Chill threatened to bring a flamethrower to my yard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Okay...so then what happened in the following year? (2012-13) Nina? (looks like that was crappy...but with 8.7 inches instead of 1.8, lol) 12-13 was the standard struggle for us. Tale of 2 halves near the cities. -PNA killed us early but that slowly progressed to pretty decent blocking towards the end and it did sorta pay off. Mar 2013 was just a subtle bad break at the last minute. It was a great setup for WAA precip followed by a closed ULL. The problem was the ULL deepened rapidly down in southern VA and cut off the WAA feed. Then it took a jog SE off the coast of VA beach and we were too far away from the action to get anything sustained the next day. It was a marginal temp situation (common) that could have been a really big event or even a good one as is if it was colder. It was simple reasons though and had nothing to do with the year itself being a disaster. The thing about our region is we are in the battle zone. We can get walloped so it "has the feel" of a big storm town but they simply don't come easy because of all the little things (mostly temps). Near misses and struggles are part of normal daily life here. Always has been since I've been around MD (1972) and always will be. For people that have been around a long time it's been a bit of shock and awe since Jan 2000. We've had quite a few very large events. Way more than any previous period (60s included). If anything, it's unusual and anomalous that we've had so many big storms over the last 20 years. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12-13 was the standard struggle for us. Tale of 2 halves near the cities. -PNA killed us early but that slowly progressed to pretty decent blocking towards the end and it did sorta pay off. Mar 2013 was just a subtle bad break at the last minute. It was a great setup for WAA precip followed by a closed ULL. The problem was the ULL deepened rapidly down in southern VA and cut off the WAA feed. Then it took a jog SE off the coast of VA beach and we were too far away from the action to get anything sustained the next day. It was a marginal temp situation (common) that could have been a really big event or even a good one as is if it was colder. It was simple reasons though and had nothing to do with the year itself being a disaster. The thing about our region is we are in the battle zone. We can get walloped so it "has the feel" of a big storm town but they simply don't come easy because of all the little things (mostly temps). Near misses and struggles are part of normal daily life here. Always has been since I've been around MD (1972) and always will be. For people that have been around a long time it's been a bit of shock and awe since Jan 2000. We've had quite a few very large events. Way more than any previous period (60s included). If anything, it's unusual and anomalous that we've had so many big storms over the last 20 years. True...I don't know of a another stretch where you could count on a 12" storm every 3-4 years...and a two-foot every 6-7 years. We had been able to time that with a watch...but, barring a bit of a miracle, it looks like that stretch may end this year... And I'm well aware of the battle zone...but even around here...a year like this is particularly rough (and now it's been 4 years since the last big one...and we've only had to shovel once in the last 4 years) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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