psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: The only consistent feature this winter has been the ++AO/+NAO. When psu made his dire predictions, there was a monster central PAC ridge. That ridge actually faded two weeks later and didn't last as long as feared. We've actually had several different 'patterns' this winter, but none of them were good aside from November...which was too early in the season. We’ve had variations yes. But all have featured 2 constants. +NAM and ridging centered unfavorably in the PAC leading to a -pna. The pac pattern has gone through fluctuations but the mean ridge has continued to be too far west. Furthermore those 2 aren’t totally a bad luck combo. That pac pattern is unfavorable for high latitude disruption. One is feeding into the other. You aren’t going to get a +5 stdv ridge all the time for months but the pac forcing has plain sucked straight through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: I enjoy life whether it snows or not. Though I would prefer snow to be part of the equation. You're fortunate to have lived long enough to learn that. See this crap ruins my entire day, week, and month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Sounds like you need a chase. I wish I could...never chased before, so I'm not sure whether it'll ease my depression over this winter, but...I'd consider giving it a shot if I could! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Well...looks like this thread may become pointless until spring barring a fluke...but yes, yes I know...LR is still LR--even if it turns into multiple cutters, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’ve had variations yes. But all have featured 2 constants. +NAM and ridging centered unfavorably in the PAC leading to a -pna. I was under the impression that the late December fail was a different beast: the AK vortex Pac Puke. AO was actually negative from roughly Dec 15th - 25th or so, but was trumped by the mild Pacific air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Well...looks like this thread may become pointless until spring barring a fluke...but yes, yes I know...LR is still LR--even if it turns into multiple cutters, lolI'd suggest taking a break from this board and posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well...looks like this thread may become pointless until spring barring a fluke...but yes, yes I know...LR is still LR--even if it turns into multiple cutters, lol I'd suggest taking a break from this board and posting. I probably should....although I ain't got nowhere else to put this but in the panic room or something (leave me alone, reap). Beyond frustrated and depressed...But enough. Won't clog up this thread, anymore (not like there's anything going on atm, but I'll respect the rules) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: I was under the impression that the late December fail was a different beast: the AK vortex Pac Puke. AO was actually negative from roughly Dec 15th - 25th or so, but was trumped by the mild Pacific air. Dec was different. Dec also can be a fake out before the jet settles into its winter longwave base stats. We were cooked in late December when the strong PV coupled with the troposphere. History suggests when the combination of a very strong central pac ridge and very strong +AO sets in during January it persists the rest of winter most of the time. That doesn’t mean there is a super pac ridge the whole time but a really anomalous ridge there is indicative a bad pac forcing. It’s a tell that we are fighting a hostile base state. Add in a +AO and we’re toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Dec was different. Dec also can be a fake out before the jet settles into its winter longwave base stats. We were cooked in late December when the strong PV coupled with the troposphere. History suggests when the combination of a very strong central pac ridge and very strong +AO sets in during January it persists the rest of winter most of the time. That doesn’t mean there is a super pac ridge the whole time but a really anomalous ridge there is indicative a bad pac forcing. It’s a tell that we are fighting a hostile base state. Add in a +AO and we’re toast. Whatever the case...I hope we don't have to see this again for a long time. Absolute worst pattern to be in (didn't think anything was worse than ninas...but clearly this setup is. At least we can get a couple inches here and there with a nina, smh). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 0z GEFS doesn't dump as much energy into the AK trough, then weakens and retros it in the LR. End result is a trough near the Aleutians and a very nicety placed PNA ridge and potentially active southern stream. There are -850 temp anomalies in eastern Canada and along the US east coast with no SE ridge. Not super cold but no torch either. This has been your daily glimmer of hope in this winter of doom. I am sure this is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 EPS is still pretty much a train wreck, although it looks slightly better towards D15. If there is a way out of this crap pattern, it wont come in the next 10 days (broken record). Maybe the last few days of February can be salvaged, otherwise March will have to be the savior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: If ya can't get a fluke in February...in a pattern like this...why in the world would it work in March? It can work if this pattern breaks down and evolves to something more favorable- either the +AO relaxes or the Pac improves, or both. Otherwise March will be just like this, but even warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It can work if this pattern breaks down and evolves to something more favorable- either the +AO relaxes or the Pac improves, or both. Otherwise March will be just like this, but even warmer. Seasonal wave length changes for the win. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 We can't see snow but can see a rocket launch from Wallops Island Virginia at 5:39 pm this evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, Solution Man said: We can't see snow but can see a rocket launch from Wallops Island Virginia at 5:39 pm this evening. Thanks for the info, I'll be looking for it if it's clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: It can work if this pattern breaks down and evolves to something more favorable- either the +AO relaxes or the Pac improves, or both. Otherwise March will be just like this, but even warmer. At this point - I don't really care about snow anymore. Seasonal affective disorder is getting to me and I just want it to be warm now. I don't want a repeat of the last two Marches. Just lots of sunshine. I'm sure a few people agree with me on that sentiment as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Only bone I have to throw this am is that PNA is moving in the right direction toward the end of the month in 0z EPS ensembles. Looks like we punt the rest of February. Maybe we will start to see improvement in our final few weeks of winter and end with a snow storm. But I would not bet the ranch on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Only bone I have to throw this am is that PNA is moving in the right direction toward the end of the month in 0z EPS ensembles. Looks like we punt the rest of February. Maybe we will start to see improvement in our final few weeks of winter and end with a snow storm. But I would not bet the ranch on it. What about a bunny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Only bone I have to throw this am is that PNA is moving in the right direction toward the end of the month. Looks like we punt the rest of February. Maybe we will start to see improvement in our final few weeks of winter and end with a snow storm. But I would not bet the ranch on it Yeah I mentioned that in my post above. It's the GEFS though. Not so much the EPS. Either way, we have seen this "attempt" many times over the past several weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: It can work if this pattern breaks down and evolves to something more favorable- either the +AO relaxes or the Pac improves, or both. Otherwise March will be just like this, but even warmer. Well I'd rather there not be a tease...not even looking ahead (as much as I wish there were something hopeful) This is the worst winter we've ever had outside of 1972-73. The WORST...And who knows if the next winter or the one after will be much better. Had something working against us the last 4 years (but at least we still got ambiance snow...can't even buy that). 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Only bone I have to throw this am is that PNA is moving in the right direction toward the end of the month in 0z EPS ensembles. Looks like we punt the rest of February. Maybe we will start to see improvement in our final few weeks of winter and end with a snow storm. But I would not bet the ranch on it. Tired of hearing "end of the month"...mercy. To punt Feb on the tenth? That is a depressing month....we deserve a late save, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well I'd rather there not be a tease...not even looking ahead (as much as I wish there were something hopeful) This is the worst winter we've ever had outside of 1972-73. The WORST...And who knows if the next winter or the one after will be much better. Had something working against us the last 4 years (but at least we still got ambiance snow...can't even buy that). Tired of hearing "end of the month"...mercy. To punt Feb on the tenth? That is a depressing month....we deserve a late save, though... Hope springs eternal Hope is not a strategy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Two weeks out (2/23-24) looks different and promising. Yeah, I know. Has ridging out west and a vort pass under us. (Gotta have some hope, right)? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 From Cosgrove, it would seem this late February early March look might be the light at the very last end of the tunnel. I mean this doesn’t look bad right? I just have a hard time throwing in the towel. If we have to continue to wait, so be it. Life goes on... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: From Cosgrove, it would seem this late February early March look might be the light at the very last end of the tunnel. I mean this doesn’t look bad right? I just have a hard time throwing in the towel. If we have to continue to wait, so be it. Life goes on... The GEFS has been showing signs of 'positive' change the last several runs. GEPS and EPS not as much. Sadly I think what is most likely to transpire is another failed attempt, with the PAC ridge ending up parked right where it has taken up residence for the last 2+ months. But we will have to wait and see. We truly cannot know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Why would anyone want a cold March? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Why would anyone want a cold March? I want a cold spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 56 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: At this point - I don't really care about snow anymore. Seasonal affective disorder is getting to me and I just want it to be warm now. I don't want a repeat of the last two Marches. Just lots of sunshine. I'm sure a few people agree with me on that sentiment as well. I hear you. Pretty depressing ‘winter’. I’m done with winter weather in March and cold dreary Aprils. Enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: At this point - I don't really care about snow anymore. Seasonal affective disorder is getting to me and I just want it to be warm now. I don't want a repeat of the last two Marches. Just lots of sunshine. I'm sure a few people agree with me on that sentiment as well. Same...come March 1, I’m ready to start tracking sustained 60s and sun. I’m over the cold, dreary March weather where its 42 and drizzling. Yay spring -NAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Why would anyone want a cold March? Because it is 'normal'?? The average for March is 55/28 here, and 90% of the 'warmth' happens the last 5/6 days of the month if you look at the overall averages for the month. The 1st 3 weeks run 50/25 to 55/30 and last week is in the 60/62 over 32 range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 18 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Why would anyone want a cold March? Delayed onset of mosquito season tops my list. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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