MJO812 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 What a winter for the west coast and upper mid west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 History said if we didn’t see a major flip in the NAM by late January that with the pac pattern this year we were toast. Simply put that pac pattern is stable. It tends to last. It can be offset by favorable blocking but when the AO remains hostile going into February it usually remains so until March if not the whole season. When we got to the last week of January and no improvement was hinted at I kind of realized we were very very very likely looking at a total dud. A fluke can happen. March is the best bet. But this has had all the tells of a dumpster fire season since late December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: What a winter for the west coast and upper mid west. The PNW has been "OKAY" Washington State has been more in the storm track than here in Central Oregon where I live. I am below average for snow and it has certainly been above average temperatures through out the winter. December was unusually dry but January got the mountain snowpack back near normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, snownut said: The PNW has been "OKAY" Washington State has been more in the in the storm track than here in Central Oregon where I live. I am below average for snow and it has certainly been above average temperatures through out the winter. December was unusually dry but January got the mountain snowpack back near normal. My friend in Utah has over 250 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Welp...there's one to fall in line with the Euro...I think this may be the last shot, sadly. (I'll still wait until the 20th, though...just in case) I thought you were giving it until Tuesday because there were too many moving parts. You already tossed in the towel after only 18.hrs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: My friend in Utah has over 250 inches of snow. Mount Bachelor here (I can see out my window) has had 247" so far this season. My hunch it will be a 350" season?? They average 350 - 450 in a normal year so nothing special this year. In 2012-2013 season before I moved here they had over 828" in one season. The next year, when I moved here (2014-2015) season they had the least seasonal amount in their entire history! Only 182" for the season. I think I brought the Mid Atlantic jinx with me . ha ha .. here is a link to the interact totals through 2017 season / which was a nice year . https://www.snowpak.com/oregon/mount-bachelor/snow 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: History said if we didn’t see a major flip in the NAM by late January that with the pac pattern this year we were toast. Simply put that pac pattern is stable. It tends to last. It can be offset by favorable blocking but when the AO remains hostile going into February it usually remains so until March if not the whole season. When we got to the last week of January and no improvement was hinted at I kind of realized we were very very very likely looking at a total dud. A fluke can happen. March is the best bet. But this has had all the tells of a dumpster fire season since late December. Go to give you credit, you pretty much called this winter a complete dud in late December and you were spot on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Let's just be real...we're gonna have to travel. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let's just be real...we're gonna have to travel. Road trip!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let's just be real...we're gonna have to travel. Even if its a few hundred miles south. What a winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 33 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let's just be real...we're gonna have to travel. to where? the north pole? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 38 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let's just be real...we're gonna have to travel. I plan on it ... to the golf course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ji said: to where? the north pole? Burlington, dude. They've been getting clocked with every west/app runner we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Burlington, dude. They've been getting clocked with every west/app runner we've had. New England gets clocked with everything. Thinking hard about moving to New Hampshire or Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 45 minutes ago, Ji said: to where? the north pole? Nope. Just Atlanta ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: New England gets clocked with everything. Thinking hard about moving to New Hampshire or Maine. Move to the lake region or Caribou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Move to the lake region or Caribou. Lake region? Rangeley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 18z eps has 0 members showing a hit anywhere and the control is further NW than the 12z op. 12z cmc ens has almost no support for the 12z op. That pretty much does it for me. I'm out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lake region? Rangeley? Upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: to where? the north pole? 56 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Burlington, dude. They've been getting clocked with every west/app runner we've had. I’m in Burlington since Friday morning. Skied Stowe today. Friday I bar hopped and watched 12” fall between 10am and 7pm. 22 degrees and cold smoke for 8+ hours. Skied 14” at the resort today. If y’all love snow then become addicted to skiing (like me) and you’ll always have a good reason to travel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: History said if we didn’t see a major flip in the NAM by late January that with the pac pattern this year we were toast. Simply put that pac pattern is stable. It tends to last. It can be offset by favorable blocking but when the AO remains hostile going into February it usually remains so until March if not the whole season. When we got to the last week of January and no improvement was hinted at I kind of realized we were very very very likely looking at a total dud. A fluke can happen. March is the best bet. But this has had all the tells of a dumpster fire season since late December. If ya can't get a fluke in February...in a pattern like this...why in the world would it work in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: That doesn't mean anything to me. Neither does ATL getting snow. Who cares? My yard on the other hand... my muddy soggy yard with flower bulbs coming up.... that matters a lot and it sucks I see your point, but I also found some of those past winters where NYC/NE get hammered - while we always get fringed - actually way more painful than this type of winter. At least when virtually everyone gets shutout, it doesn't feel that bad. 12/30/00 and 12/26/10 were gut punches that took a while to get over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveRDU Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: I see your point, but I also found some of those past winters where NYC/NE get hammered - while we always get fringed - actually way more painful than this type of winter. At least when virtually everyone gets shutout, it doesn't feel that bad. 12/30/00 and 12/26/10 were gut punches that took a while to get over. But the mid Atlantic cashed in on 2/6/10 which was the biggest gut punch to nyc that I could remember! I just wonder if the 95 corridor will ever see a repeat of 95-96 where everyone cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 After a quick glance over the boards I am taking it the day's runs didn't go so well? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 After a quick glance over the boards I am taking it the day's runs didn't go so well? Nooo. Everything and everyone is perfectly fine since December 2nd. We all cashed in on a dumpster fire pattern. Enjoy Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Quick glance and I see the GEFS has moved to the Euro. Can't picture a winning scenario if the NS can't for the most part bypass the Southwest SW and move eastward reinforcing the suppression. Not giving up at this time (will give it a couple more days) but admittedly it does look rough at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Nooo. Everything and everyone is perfectly fine since December 2nd. We all cashed in on a dumpster fire pattern. Enjoy Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk I enjoy life whether it snows or not. Though I would prefer snow to be part of the equation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Quick glance and I see the GEFS has moved to the Euro. Can't picture a winning scenario if the NS can't for the most part bypass the Southwest SW and move eastward reinforcing the suppression. Not giving up at this time (will give it a couple more days) but admittedly it does look rough at this time. You do have quite an eloquent way of saying "the recurring pattern and themes this winter really suck and the late week system look like much of the same shiit" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 21 hours ago, psuhoffman said: History said if we didn’t see a major flip in the NAM by late January that with the pac pattern this year we were toast. Simply put that pac pattern is stable. It tends to last. It can be offset by favorable blocking but when the AO remains hostile going into February it usually remains so until March if not the whole season. When we got to the last week of January and no improvement was hinted at I kind of realized we were very very very likely looking at a total dud. A fluke can happen. March is the best bet. But this has had all the tells of a dumpster fire season since late December. And kudos to you for doing all of the research back in Dec on the pattern that was developing and historically where it would probably head. Your facts were easy to read and comprehend and while many didnt want to hear it you were transparent in suggesting that historically once those Pac looks showed up and lasted a specific amount of time there really was little hope of getting out of it. Well played sir....I thank you for your efforts and research. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 The only consistent feature this winter has been the ++AO/+NAO. When psu made his dire predictions, there was a monster central PAC ridge. That ridge actually faded two weeks later and didn't last as long as feared. We've actually had several different 'patterns' this winter, but none of them were good aside from November...which was too early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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