CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Usually take 7-10 days minimum to rebuild cold in that domain....another 5-7 days to transport it south. So maybe early March? Always possible the advertised existence/strength/position of the AK vortex is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Usually take 7-10 days minimum to rebuild cold in that domain....another 5-7 days to transport it south. So maybe early March? To all of you who couldn't find anything to like in the EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just now, dallen7908 said: To all of you who couldn't find anything to like in the EPS 1/50 @ hour 300? Hot damn! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 The Icon will save us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, Solution Man said: The Icon will save us The thing that will save us is a decent pattern- one that supports snow without requiring a hundred different elements in combination aligning perfectly in order for it to happen. Wait- never mind. That is the norm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The thing that will save us is a decent pattern- one that supports snow without requiring a hundred different elements in combination aligning perfectly in order for it to happen. When was the last time that happened? Awful Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, Solution Man said: The Icon will save us Icon went north at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Icon went north at 18z. What a shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Welp...there's one to fall in line with the Euro...I think this may be the last shot, sadly. (I'll still wait until the 20th, though...just in case) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: What a shock. Even my area has had an awful winter. I'm only at 3.3 inches. I doubt I am going to get to double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Welp...there's one to fall in line with the Euro...I think this may be the last shot, sadly. (I'll still wait until the 20th, though...just in case) Why the 20th? Kinda random. Pattern persistence would suggest it's over now(or 2 weeks ago). Otherwise, we are typically in the game through mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Was looking at the Potomac River this morning reminiscing when it use to freeze 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Why the 20th? Kinda random. Pattern persistence would suggest it's over now(or 2 weeks ago). Otherwise, we are typically in the game through mid March. Well, just for history's sake (best snows usually stop after the 20th--with very little accumulating snows between then and the end of the month)...and also ya never know if we could thread the needle/fluke into something before then. Forget March, I'd say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Gfs is caving Shitty winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is caving Shitty winter Pretty much caved at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 We got just inside of 5 days...lol And it was a bit more of a tease this time because it looked a bit different at the outset (complete with suppressed solutions, lol). Hadn't seen that all winter, but....I suppose the AO is just too strong. Man I hope we are compensated for this next year if this is really it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: We got just inside of 5 days...lol And it was a bit more of a tease this time because it looked a bit different at the outset (complete with suppressed solutions, lol). Hadn't seen that all winter, but....I suppose the AO is just too strong. Man I hope we are compensated for this next year if this is really it. Nao and AO suck right now MJO also sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Nao and AO suck right now MJO also sucks As we all know... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Pretty much caved at 12z. i mean we are going to get cold...thats still coming but we couldnt time it with the storm like Georgia did today....who knows what things will look like in 2-3 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ji said: i mean we are going to get cold...thats still coming but we couldnt time it with the storm like Georgia did today....who knows what things will look like in 2-3 days It's possible but that was a tiny little shortwave and hard to model. The fail next week is meaty. Models aren't going to flip around too much from here me thinks. Now the GFS, ICON, and Euro have a nw or overhead track. Multiple euro runs without wavering too. CMC is the outlier until 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just now, Ji said: i mean we are going to get cold...thats still coming but we couldnt time it with the storm like Georgia did today....who knows what things will look like in 2-3 days The usual day or 2 of transient cold sure, but not cold leading in. A heck of a lot would have to change. Possible, but why would we think that would happen given the pattern persistence(+AO/+NAO/awful EPAC). The fact is that this is NOT a good set up, as currently advertised, for snow in this area. Frankly, it's terrible. A freaking disaster even. Georgia lucked out with a trailing wave. Could have been ours, but we cant seem to even sniff that this winter. Zero in the luck dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 HH GFS has an impressive heavy rain band centered on I-95 late week. Cant wait! Yet another classic cutter after that. We are so locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: HH GFS has an impressive heavy rain band centered on I-95 late week. Cant wait! Yet another classic cutter after that. We are so locked in. At least we ain't alone...the entire coastal northeast is struggling under this +AO dictatorship... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: At least we ain't alone...the entire coastal northeast is struggling under this +AO dictatorship... NNE can still do okay. Otherwise, yeah. One day we(collectively) might all learn to stop hunting for snowstorms in patterns that are the antithesis of what is required for snow here. What fun would that be though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: NNE can still do okay. Otherwise, yeah. One day we(collectively) might all learn to stop hunting for snowstorms in patterns that are the antithesis of what is required for snow here. What fun would that be though? Hard not to...because flukes can still happen. Not often (that's why they're flukes) but not impossible. Next week could be/could've been one of those moments...just doesn't seem to work out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: At least we ain't alone...the entire coastal northeast is struggling under this +AO dictatorship... That doesn't mean anything to me. Neither does ATL getting snow. Who cares? My yard on the other hand... my muddy soggy yard with flower bulbs coming up.... that matters a lot and it sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: That doesn't mean anything to me. Neither does ATL getting snow. Who cares? My yard on the other hand... my muddy soggy yard with flower bulbs coming up.... that matters a lot and it sucks Oh I hear ya (but it is a little worse when we have the snowhole, lol). But yeah...this one is high on the sucks list. Ain't no winter worsened my depression more than this one...mercy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: That doesn't mean anything to me. Neither does ATL getting snow. Who cares? My yard on the other hand... my muddy soggy yard with flower bulbs coming up.... that matters a lot and it sucks I spent an hour in my muddy yard/flower beds today pulling out little weedy things- chickweed and stuff. Then I got bored and came inside for a beer. This winter is easily the worst in recent memory. Altho my memory sometimes fails me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I spent an hour in my muddy yard/flower beds today pulling out little weedy things- chickweed and stuff. Then I got bored and came inside for a beer. This winter is easily the worst in recent memory. Altho my memory sometimes fails me lol. Every reshuffle out west or above us has produced the same sensible result. Can we get a good storm still? Sure, crazy writing that off just cuz. If the eps is right with the AK vortex down the line a good storm will remain highly unlikely and elusive no matter what models show. I'm always forward looking in life. No matter what happens the next 2 months, I'm going to Myrtle during moco spring break in early April. Can't wait for that and it keeps me happy in the face of the epic disaster winter we're having. I wish late Nov/early Dec never happened. It sucked me in when I expected a dud all fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I spent an hour in my muddy yard/flower beds today pulling out little weedy things- chickweed and stuff. Then I got bored and came inside for a beer. This winter is easily the worst in recent memory. Altho my memory sometimes fails me lol. This is the worst. Absolutely locked into a miserable unrelenting pattern. We've only had the tiniest of windows to score and they have all abrublty closed. It's not easy for a pattern to lock in for 90 days or an entire season but this one appears to have managed that. An off the charts positive AO and a persistent -PNA has buried us. We've barely sniffed any favorable MJO. The best we could do was get a weak -EPO occassionally. Even if the EPO was a stronger negative we probably would've only gotten colder not necessarily snowier although it couldn't have hurt. No point in even reiterating the lack of any semblance of real blocking. Those other crappy winters were tough but as far as I'm concerned this one is the worst. Still hoping for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now