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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

True, but if we have northerly winds and boundary pressing in from the north, lpc tracking south of us,  it wouldn't really matter once precip started, right?  

It's possible but my yard has seen its share of rain with 35-38 surface and good mids this year. This is another setup where the northern tier can pull something off while I shovel rain... again

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24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The northern tier hasnt been shoveling anything this year either.

They got a decent storm in Jan. Warning level accums in some places. I think md line folks are all close to or above 10" on the year. 

On topic... 12gefs made more than a little shift towards the euro op. Euro seems set on a west track. Could be wrong but it appears there's some convergence toward that solution

VfyzGjF.png

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14 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Y’all still here chasing fantasy patterns and fake snow :lmao:

 

I'm only kidding! Anyone placing bets on March delivering SOMETHING!?!

Heck no...if we won't be able to pull if off now...hard to imagine March would be any different! (not to mention...I hate tracking in March--Daylight Savings Time makes evening model watching a pain!)

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I'll consider jumping out of this threat if the rest of guidance converges on a cutter tomorrow...It's a shame. Saw the suppressed looks early and thought we'd have something a little better to work with...this is probably our only window. Probably nothing else after that (unless we get any chance the following we get any more tiny windows before the 20th). BWI would finish tied for lowest snowfall, I believe...(1.8") hope we can get something worth an inch or two...

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Euro with another cutter for Wed/Thurs.  

Wash/Rinse/Repeat this winter.

And last winter as well.  Also, the cold / dry and then warm / wet seems to be resonating as well. I do believe it is a pattern that produces this repeating cycle for us.

Looking at the AO it takes a dive from +5,  but down only to around +1 and then back up again. Models last week with a weakening and then re-strengthening seem to be correct so far. 

Meanwhile what a slap in the face.  

 

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, frd said:

And last winter as well.  Also, the cold / dry and then warm / wet seems to be resonating as well. I do believe it is a pattern that produces this repeating cycle for us.

Looking at the AO it takes a dive from +5,  but down only to around +1 and then back up again. Models last week with a weakening and then re-strengthening seem to be correct so far. 

Meanwhile what a slap in the face.  

 

 

 

 

 

Just takes everything to come together for one brief period. They have been in deep Spring down there for most of winter, but the needle was threaded today. Still a chance that happens here. Maybe in March.:yikes:

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18 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Yes +PNA by day 14!, also NAO decrease to near zero by day 16 as does EPO! 

The AK vortex is going to flood Canada with Pac air. The advertised +PNA look towards the end of the GEFS would be completely impotent for our purposes if that look materializes.

The 6z run this morning hinted at that trough retrograding towards the Aleutians. Not happening on the 12z run, and not on the EPS either.

eta- As I said this morning, an optimist could evaluate the h5  look at the end of the GEFS run, and see the 'possibility' of the pattern becoming more favorable just beyond that period. Problem is, we have all been doing that for months, and it never happens. Maybe this time..

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11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The AK vortex is going to flood Canada with Pac air. The advertised +PNA look towards the end of the GEFS would be completely impotent for our purposes if that look materializes.

The 6z run this morning hinted at that trough retrograding towards the Aleutians. Not happening on the 12z run, and not on the EPS either.

Usually take 7-10 days minimum to rebuild cold in that domain....another 5-7 days to transport it south. So maybe early March?

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