Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: True, but if we have northerly winds and boundary pressing in from the north, lpc tracking south of us, it wouldn't really matter once precip started, right? It's possible but my yard has seen its share of rain with 35-38 surface and good mids this year. This is another setup where the northern tier can pull something off while I shovel rain... again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 It’s snowing in Georgia today. So maybe there is hope for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 56 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: It’s snowing in Georgia today. So maybe there is hope for us. Parts of Georgia will have more snow than us at seasons end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 I'm only looking at TT 24hr maps but the EURO didn't make any positive trends. Maybe worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Euro with another cutter for Wed/Thurs. Wash/Rinse/Repeat this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 23 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Parts of Georgia will have more snow than us at seasons end Some spots are at 5-6” already. It’s very lucky to be them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Euro with another cutter for Wed/Thurs. Wash/Rinse/Repeat this winter. More snow for Texas and Mexico though! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I'm only looking at TT 24hr maps but the EURO didn't make any positive trends. Maybe worse? Its about the same sensible weather wise. We aren't close to sniffing frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Its about the same sensible weather wise. We aren't close to sniffing frozen.I dont buy outliers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its about the same sensible weather wise. We aren't close to sniffing frozen. I dont buy outliers... Yeah I don't buy the CMC either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Maybe we can get 5/50 EPS members to give us snow this run. Plenty of time for incremental improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Maybe we can get 5/50 EPS members to give us snow this run. Plenty of time for incremental improvement. Gefs looks horrible for next week and no improvement through d16. itsnothappening.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It's possible but my yard has seen its share of rain with 35-38 surface and good mids this year. This is another setup where the northern tier can pull something off while I shovel rain... again The northern tier hasnt been shoveling anything this year either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Euro has 29 and 35 as high for jyo Friday and Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Y’all still here chasing fantasy patterns and fake snow I'm only kidding! Anyone placing bets on March delivering SOMETHING!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro has 29 and 35 as high for jyo Friday and Saturday And dry as a bone ... my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The northern tier hasnt been shoveling anything this year either. They got a decent storm in Jan. Warning level accums in some places. I think md line folks are all close to or above 10" on the year. On topic... 12gefs made more than a little shift towards the euro op. Euro seems set on a west track. Could be wrong but it appears there's some convergence toward that solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro has 29 and 35 as high for jyo Friday and Saturday What do we say? Get the cold established first then take our chances with disturbances moving across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Y’all still here chasing fantasy patterns and fake snow I'm only kidding! Anyone placing bets on March delivering SOMETHING!?! Heck no...if we won't be able to pull if off now...hard to imagine March would be any different! (not to mention...I hate tracking in March--Daylight Savings Time makes evening model watching a pain!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 I'll consider jumping out of this threat if the rest of guidance converges on a cutter tomorrow...It's a shame. Saw the suppressed looks early and thought we'd have something a little better to work with...this is probably our only window. Probably nothing else after that (unless we get any chance the following we get any more tiny windows before the 20th). BWI would finish tied for lowest snowfall, I believe...(1.8") hope we can get something worth an inch or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Euro with another cutter for Wed/Thurs. Wash/Rinse/Repeat this winter. And last winter as well. Also, the cold / dry and then warm / wet seems to be resonating as well. I do believe it is a pattern that produces this repeating cycle for us. Looking at the AO it takes a dive from +5, but down only to around +1 and then back up again. Models last week with a weakening and then re-strengthening seem to be correct so far. Meanwhile what a slap in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, frd said: And last winter as well. Also, the cold / dry and then warm / wet seems to be resonating as well. I do believe it is a pattern that produces this repeating cycle for us. Looking at the AO it takes a dive from +5, but down only to around +1 and then back up again. Models last week with a weakening and then re-strengthening seem to be correct so far. Meanwhile what a slap in the face. Just takes everything to come together for one brief period. They have been in deep Spring down there for most of winter, but the needle was threaded today. Still a chance that happens here. Maybe in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs looks horrible for next week and no improvement through d16. itsnothappening.gif +PNA tho lol. EPS looks worse. Absolutely no signs of improvement in the LR. Shutout look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 At least DC snowfall is double PHL. Finally some good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: +PNA tho lol. EPS looks worse. Absolutely no signs of improvement in the LR. Shutout look. Only One Member brings snow late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: At least DC snowfall is double PHL. Finally some good news With nothing to back it up, if we were to have all the pieces come together, I can envision a warning level event followed by Spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: +PNA tho lol. EPS looks worse. Absolutely no signs of improvement in the LR. Shutout look. Yes +PNA by day 14!, also NAO decrease to near zero by day 16 as does EPO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: Only One Member brings snow late week. I have never been a believer in the late week deal. I am looking for signs of life down the line. There aren't many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 18 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Yes +PNA by day 14!, also NAO decrease to near zero by day 16 as does EPO! The AK vortex is going to flood Canada with Pac air. The advertised +PNA look towards the end of the GEFS would be completely impotent for our purposes if that look materializes. The 6z run this morning hinted at that trough retrograding towards the Aleutians. Not happening on the 12z run, and not on the EPS either. eta- As I said this morning, an optimist could evaluate the h5 look at the end of the GEFS run, and see the 'possibility' of the pattern becoming more favorable just beyond that period. Problem is, we have all been doing that for months, and it never happens. Maybe this time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The AK vortex is going to flood Canada with Pac air. The advertised +PNA look towards the end of the GEFS would be completely impotent for our purposes if that look materializes. The 6z run this morning hinted at that trough retrograding towards the Aleutians. Not happening on the 12z run, and not on the EPS either. Usually take 7-10 days minimum to rebuild cold in that domain....another 5-7 days to transport it south. So maybe early March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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