February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Solution Man]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

That's not what this is...lol if that were the case, there wouldn't be a High to the north at all! (now think about it...when have we even had that this year?)

High to the North and we get rained on?

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure what you're looking at...

[baltosquid]

It's hard to be excited about the GFS being close (but further than it was at 06z) while the ECMWF is 300 miles too far north. Still 5+ days out but with precious little ensemble support, oof.

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's not what this is...lol if that were the case, there wouldn't be a High to the north at all! (now think about it...when have we even had that this year?)

I was just talking about the rain part. Lol. I see it’s a bit different set up though.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

High to the North and we get rained on?

All the more reason not to be convinced this is the final outcome...lol

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

All the more reason not to be convinced this is the final outcome...lol

To be continued 

[LP08]

There is nothing to lock any high in place.  We are now and have been all winter at the mercy of perfect timing.   Maybe we can time up the high and low down south perfectly for a snowstorm but my money is on “imperfect” timing.

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like the GFS is doing just this lol.

That actually wasn't far off from a good event for our region. See that drop into the SW a little farther east (100-150 miles) and we might be talking a warning level event. Get that to drop 200-300 miles to the east with it actually phasing (not the sloppy swing and miss we see here) and we are probably looking at a coastal.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

High to the North and we get rained on?

This one is not for us.  It would take a major change to be in the game at this point.  The cold can’t hold.  See where we are in 15 days the buy mulch 

[Solution Man]

Just now, BristowWx said:

This one is not for us.  It would take a major change to be in the game at this point.  The cold can’t hold.  See where we are in 15 days the buy mulch 

We suck at Winter

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

That actually wasn't far off from a good event for our region. See that drop into the SW a little farther east (100-150 miles) and we might be talking a warning level event. Get that to drop 200-300 miles to the east with it actually phasing (not the sloppy swing and miss we see here) and we are probably looking at a coastal.

Another piece of energy to factor in to the needle threading. Too many moving parts and "ifs". I suppose we are due for it all to align, in spite of It being a crappy setup for snow.

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This one is not for us.  It would take a major change to be in the game at this point.  The cold can’t hold.  See where we are in 15 days the buy mulch 

But the cold did hold...just a bit too far to the north this time. That high was up there throughout the storm. I'm not convinced it's a "major" change that we need (all winter we've been trying to will storms to hold onto cold air in a stale air mass with no cold anywhere close. This time...it's close)

Edit: I see it ain't as ideal as I thought. But regardless...still 5+ days out...

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

But the cold did hold...just a bit too far to the north this time. That high was up there throughout the storm. I'm not convinced it's a "major" change that we need (all winter we've been trying to will storms to hold onto cold air in a stale air mass with no cold anywhere close. This time...it's close)

Look at mid level winds on approach. Cold is shallow and sw flow is running right in line with the upper level ridge in front of the SW. The "cold" is total weak sauce. The real cold and arctic front is up by the Canadian border. As the shortwave approaches the sw flow keeps getting stronger.

Weak cold and sw flow + ridge = good luck here

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

We suck at Winter

We do when we have a +AO/NAO for sure. Uphill battle, unless we get some serious cooperation in the EPAC.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Look at mid level winds on approach. Cold is shallow and sw flow is running right in line with the upper level ridge in front of the SW. The "cold" is total weak sauce. The real cold and arctic front is up by the Canadian border. As the shortwave approaches the sw flow keeps getting stronger.

Weak cold and sw flow + ridge = good luck here

Ah I gotcha...Now on the runs where it snowed (like 6z) what was the difference?

[snowmagnet]

11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

That actually wasn't far off from a good event for our region. See that drop into the SW a little farther east (100-150 miles) and we might be talking a warning level event. Get that to drop 200-300 miles to the east with it actually phasing (not the sloppy swing and miss we see here) and we are probably looking at a coastal.

I’m always optimistic that we will win one of these and glad you are still posting about the possibilities, but it feels like we are always so close lately. 35 and rain is just a few degrees off of a blockbuster. This week’s huge rain while Texas snowed was really bad. It’s been a truly frustrating winter (for a few years!). Regardless, thank you for continuing to highlight the ways we  might be able to score. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m always optimistic that we will win one of these and glad you are still posting about the possibilities, but it feels like we are always so close lately. 35 and rain is just a few degrees off of a blockbuster. This week’s huge rain while Texas snowed was really bad. It’s been a truly frustrating winter (for a few years!). Regardless, thank you for continuing to highlight the ways we  might be able to score. 

But how close have we ever actually been this year, though?...Weren't the 35 and rain scenarios almost always the result of trying to make something out of a shallow/rotten airmass that wasn't deep enough to hold? (And having no cold air nearby?) I could be oversimplifying this, though...

[Ji]

I'm going with the best model out there right now

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah I gotcha...Now on the runs where it snowed (like 6z) what was the difference?

I noticed you ignored my reply to your question(confusion), but if you look at the differences at h5 between 6z and 12z you have your answer. Minor shifts in depth/timing, and  "new" pieces of energy dropping in can alter this fragile setup just enough. Any way you slice it, its marginal and a lot has to come together just right for it to work out.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

But how close have we ever actually been this year, though?...Weren't the 35 and rain scenarios almost always the result of trying to make something out of a shallow/rotten airmass that wasn't deep enough to hold? (And having no cold air nearby?) I could be oversimplifying this, though...

Not very different. Even though the ouput was better the inherent problem is identical. I don't think 6z should have any snow for us. 850 cold is weak AF and I'm sure other levels like 800, 925, etc are also going to have their own issues. Deep cold is nearly always a requirement with a southern stream wave. We haven't had deep cold since the first 10 days of Dec. A good rule of thumb is we need 850s to be -5 on approach and the 0c line at least in central VA but NC is better. 

Can a wave on a boundary work? Absolutely but not with marginal air. We need 2013-14 air for that scenario imo

[Bob Chill]

@Ji cmc is good. Keeps mid level winds northerly and pushes back against sw flow. Nice press behind as well. If everything starts moving that way it will drag me back in. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

@Ji cmc is good. Keeps mid level winds northerly and pushes back against sw flow. Nice press behind as well. If everything starts moving that way it will drag me back in. 

So do you think this has potential to trend positively, or should we write it off still? (I'm a bit confused...I thought that better timing of the waves would produce a better result)

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah....so really this setup doesn't have much of a chance?...I mean...should we right the threat off? (serious question. Now I thought that if we got the waves timed better we'd have a legit shot. But from what you're saying...)

It has a chance with these requirements: mid level winds overhead pressing down out of the north and a clean slp track below us. Only the cmc has that now. 

[snowmagnet]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not very different. Even though the ouput was better the inherent problem is identical. I don't think 6z should have any snow for us. 850 cold is weak AF and I'm sure other levels like 800, 925, etc are also going to have their own issues. Deep cold is nearly always a requirement with a southern stream wave. We haven't had deep cold since the first 10 days of Dec. A good rule of thumb is we need 850s to be -5 on approach and the 0c line at least in central VA but NC is better. 

Can a wave on a boundary work? Absolutely but not with marginal air. We need 2013-14 air for that scenario imo

I believe it was the ‘13-‘14 year that started the hype of the Polar Vortex. It became part of everyday vocabulary that winter because it split and caused so much cold air and basically acted as a substitute for a -NAO.  It’s not budging from the Arctic, so that’s not helpful. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So do you think this has potential to trend positively, or should we write it off still? (I'm a bit confused...I thought that better timing of the waves would produce a better result)

Neither. Just sit back and wait until all models look the same. Nothing will be decided in advance until we have that. Based on recent runs we aren't remotely close to consensus yet. Just watch and understand that this is not an easy way to get anything. Even if the mids are good, what will the surface look like?

[Bob Chill]

Checking under the hood of the cmc, here's surface temps at 7am thurs with precip knocking on the door. How snowy does this look?

[MD Snow]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Neither. Just sit back and wait until all models look the same. Nothing will be decided in advance until we have that. Based on recent runs we aren't remotely close to consensus yet. Just watch and understand that this is not an easy way to get anything. Even if the mids are good, what will the surface look like?

It's really astounding how the CMC, GFS, ICON are all semi close to an event, at least for northern areas, while the EURO is like on a completely different planet. 

[Ji]

Checking under the hood of the cmc, here's surface temps at 7am thurs with precip knocking on the door. How snowy does this look?

I think if things stay the say they are or slighty improve....you would see an improvement with the temps

[MD Snow]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Checking under the hood of the cmc, here's surface temps at 7am thurs with precip knocking on the door. How snowy does this look?

True, but if we have northerly winds and boundary pressing in from the north, lpc tracking south of us,  it wouldn't really matter once precip started, right?  

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ji said:

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Checking under the hood of the cmc, here's surface temps at 7am thurs with precip knocking on the door. How snowy does this look?

I think if things stay the say they are or slighty improve....you would see an improvement with the temps

Yea, I'm not poo pooing anything. Just being realistic at D5. Maybe this is the one that hits on all luck cylinders. I'm not making any definitive statements. Just pointing out the issues that need to be overcome beyond a snowmap