February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[MD Snow]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

still all rain

Come on yoda. It’s an 95 north and west special. Gonna make the weenies cook themselves. 

[yoda]

lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

Here @Ji.....somehow the Great VD Storm on the CMC manages to snow with the 540 line N and W 

[Scraff]

Just now, yoda said:

lol

Bummer. I can’t see how much digital snow my house gets. Someone put a damn 7 in my way. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Congrats N MD on the CMC

Moot point to discuss r/s lines at this range but does that model seem off to anyone else? 850s are very marginal and the 540 line is N of most of us .

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

lol

Ill take that kind of rain..lol 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Here @Ji.....somehow the Great VD Storm on the CMC manages to snow with the 540 line N and W 

So, what was that you were saying about model consensus?  Like I said, we're gonna have to be patient with this one. (Heck, already it's different for the digital hounds...we ain't been able to buy a digital flake inside 7 days like this all year, lol)

[Ralph Wiggum]

CMC is the lone bright spot so I'm hugging the hell out of it tonight and shutting my eyes for the night before the euro comes along and, well, you know.

[Chris78]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Moot point to discuss r/s lines at this range but does that model seem off to anyone else? 850s are very marginal and the 540 line is N of most of us .

I think 850s are more important.  Ive seen modeled snow at 546 and ive seen modeled rain under 534

[yoda]

00z UKIE is much slower ejecting the s/w out of the SW compared to the 00z GFS at hour 108

[Ji]

Moot point to discuss r/s lines at this range but does that model seem off to anyone else? 850s are very marginal and the 540 line is N of most of us .

Models last week gave us rain with 850 and 540 line way south of us

[yoda]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

00z UKIE is much slower ejecting the s/w out of the SW compared to the 00z GFS at hour 108

Finally being kicked out at 120 on 00z UKIE... 00z GFS kicked it out about a day earlier

[yoda]

Doesn't matter as no cold air around and its rain on the 00z UKIE

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Doesn't matter as no cold air around and its rain on the 00z UKIE

Um, ukmet is cold smoke bro. Classic setup actually.

Eta: only thing I dont particularly like is the location of the 850 low...but it's a week out.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Um, ukmet is cold smoke bro. Classic setup actually.

Eta: only thing I dont particularly like is the location of the 850 low...but it's a week out.

Nice try

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Nice try

Weenie rule #197....precip falls at night with good rates will overcome 2m temps in the upper 30s.

[showmethesnow]

Euro/Eps won't win any friends. Need the NS for the most part to bypass the north and lead the way for the energy ejecting out of the SW. But instead it is playing footsies with it. Hell , they are friends with benefits. The look out west is nowhere near what we need to see and the surface responds accordingly with the low driving into the Lakes.

[Weather Will]

WB 0z EPS a disaster.  Nothing different thru the 23rd.  The miracle is that It snowed hard for 20 minutes last night so I have snow covering my lawn on my birthday.  God loves me and I am at peace with this winter now.  Hope everyone gets a snow band before April 1.

[MJO812]

6z gfs

[showmethesnow]

Not that I believe it will play out like this (just one solution of many we will probably see over the coming days) but I did find the overnight GFS to be interesting. What we saw was actually 2 shots at a snow event for our region.

As you can see below there was a lot going on. Our first shot involved the SW in Texas which has a good look and is in a good spot for possible impacts within our region. Now what we are seeing occurring is that we have suppression setting up in southern Canada that will help to drive the boundary/cold air farther south. This on it's own might not be enough to keep any forming system in this general set up from pulling northward through or towards our west nor to drive the colder air farther south quick enough for any possible system. But notice the SW in the Midwest leading the Texas SW. As this is moving eastward and washing out it is helping to set the suppression farther south (as well as moving colder air southward quicker) to help keep any forming low underneath us. What pooches this setup though is the suppression in southern Canada is slow to leave and not only that it presses farther southward. This combination pretty much squashes out the Texas SW as it moves eastward. But a little less press and /or a quicker departure and we might have a distinct SW for a system to key on. 

Now the second shot we have involves the trailing SW in Wyoming and the NS energy diving out of western Canada. What basically happens is that as the initial suppression relaxes to our north that NS energy is rotating around to once again to reinforce it for our Wyoming SW moving eastward. The problem we have though is the NS energy is running just in front of the SW (second map below) so it is not allowing some height builds in front of that SW. It is basically squashing it to death as it moves eastward. But we see better separation between those two features we are probably looking at a distinct SW for a system to key on 1 1/2 days after our initial shot. As you can see, both examples are pretty much all about timing.

 

 

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Euro/Eps won't win any friends. Need the NS for the most part to bypass the north and lead the way for the energy ejecting out of the SW. But instead it is playing footsies with it. Hell , they are friends with benefits. The look out west is nowhere near what we need to see and the surface responds accordingly with the low driving into the Lakes.

Anything is possible, but with the continued unfavorable pattern, its all timing/needle threading. Your area might stand a chance of getting something other than plain rain, but it's difficult see this one ending up significantly different than about every other event that's occurred in recent weeks- or has it been months?

Down the road the pattern continues to look awful for the MA. I am sure you noticed what the EPS is doing over AK towards D15. The GEFS has it too, but I suppose if one wanted to be optimistic based on its depiction, rolling that forward we could end up with an Aleutian low and a well positioned PNA ridge. 

[showmethesnow]

35 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Anything is possible, but with the continued unfavorable pattern, its all timing/needle threading. Your area might stand a chance of getting something other than plain rain, but it's difficult see this one ending up significantly different than about every other event that's occurred in recent weeks- or has it been months?

Down the road the pattern continues to look awful for the MA. I am sure you noticed what the EPS is doing over AK towards D15. The GEFS has it too, but I suppose if one wanted to be optimistic based on its depiction, rolling that forward we could end up with an Aleutian low and a well positioned PNA ridge. 

Looking over things I haven't given up on the late Thursday/Friday event or possibly even through the Sat/Sunday time period as of yet (usual caveats about favored climo areas).  Far from it actually. With a possible extended period of suppression to offset the general wave length pattern we have been/are seeing with copious amounts of energy riding underneath just about anything can happen. Biggest hangup I see at this point is how much interaction we see with the NS and the SW energy in the west. Euro goes full throttle with that and screws everything up. But if you look at the other models they all differ with that interaction. The less interaction/farther east we see with that the better the odds for our region. And looking over things, I have seen peppered throughout the runs looks that I thought were just missing. Of course I have seen some real dogs as well.  I think besides looking at the general 500's as i normally do I might also be paying some extra attention to the individual ensemble snowfall maps. Think they may be a good indicator on our chances. We start seeing good solutions start popping up/increasing at this range it might be a good sign.

As far as the extended, I try not to look. Need to keep my sanity after all.  

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking over things I haven't given up on the late Thursday/Friday event or possibly even through the Sat/Sunday time period as of yet (usual caveats about favored climo areas).  Far from it actually. With a possible extended period of suppression to offset the general wave length pattern we have been/are seeing with copious amounts of energy riding underneath just about anything can happen. Biggest hangup I see at this point is how much interaction we see with the NS and the SW energy in the west. Euro goes full throttle with that and screws everything up. But if you look at the other models they all differ with that interaction. The less interaction/farther east we see with that the better the odds for our region. And looking over things, I have seen peppered throughout the runs looks that I thought were just missing. Of course I have seen some real dogs as well.  I think besides looking at the general 500's as i normally do I might also be paying some extra attention to the individual ensemble snowfall maps. Think they may be a good indicator on our chances. We start seeing good solutions start popping up/increasing at this range it might be a good sign.

As far as the extended, I try not to look. Need to keep my sanity after all.  

Worth looking at when there is a discrete "threat" showing up, yes. I have been keeping an eye on them the last couple days, and ofc you cant help but see them posted here lol. There are a few in the mix each run that would be decent hits for the general area, but the majority have the frozen in the usual places to our north, and some of those get the very northern part of our forum in the action. Looking at 6z GEFS members through next Saturday, not awful overall. Only 3 or 4 that are acceptable for my yard.

[showmethesnow]

Looking over 500's on the 06Z GEFS I really couldn't tell you if they improved or not. We did see some changes but whether they were good or bad depends on what energy gets keyed on and what time. I will say we did see an improvement on the mean surface low as well as with temps. Snowfall maps also marginally improved.

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Worth looking at when there is a discrete "threat" showing up, yes. I have been keeping an eye on them the last couple days, and ofc you cant help but see them posted here lol. There are a few in the mix each run that would be decent hits for the general area, but the majority have the frozen in the usual places to our north, and some of those get the very northern part of our forum in the action. Looking at 6z GEFS members through next Saturday, not awful overall. Only 3 or 4 that are acceptable for my yard.

Who says I care about your back yard? I am now in it for ME. I'll take all your snow as well as others and not feel one regret. 

Of course now I probably guaranteed myself a suppressed system that hammers you and I get fringed. Karma and all. 

[CAPE]

@showmethesnow

6z GEFS is trying to do what I suggested in my earlier post. I am sure this will work out. 

[CAPE]

Looking at the MJO forecasts, GEFS has strong convection propagating into the Western Pac, Phase 7. EPS is much weaker but does shift the forcing well into Phase 6. Probably explains the different advertised looks out west in the LR.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

@showmethesnow

6z GEFS is trying to do what I suggested in my earlier post. I am sure this will work out. 

Not a bad look. Maybe a little bit of suppression? But we are once again running into the same issue we have dealt with for a few years now. No N Atlantic blocking besides a possible transient 50/50. I know a lot of times the models don't pick up well on that at range and we hope to see it as it nears in time. But that really hasn't worked out well for us this year. So we are once again counting on timing. But beggars can't be choosers so I would much prefer this look as opposed to others that have been thrown at us.

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Not a bad look. Maybe a little bit of suppression? But we are once again running into the same issue we have dealt with for a few years now. No N Atlantic blocking besides a possible transient 50/50. I know a lot of times the models don't pick up well on that at range and we hope to see it as it nears in time. But that really hasn't worked out well for us this year. So we are once again counting on timing. But beggars can't be choosers so I would much prefer this look as opposed to others that have been thrown at us.

This might be just another way to fail lol.

IDC though. If this is legit real, I will take it in a heartbeat, because it is wholly different than what we have seen. We need to get out of this predominant SE ridge rut.

[Ralph Wiggum]

20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

@showmethesnow

6z GEFS is trying to do what I suggested in my earlier post. I am sure this will work out. 

Only 16 days out. La la lock it up.