February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Just says to me that there’s no way for us to have any clear picture at this point.

I think the picture is crystal clear

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Just says to me that there’s no way for us to have any clear picture at this point.

Yep...and if this comes down to the timing of those two waves like @showmethesnow posted earlier...yeah, the models ain't gonna have that figured out yet.

[Ji]

Potential is still there but timing is so off right now

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Just says to me that there’s no way for us to have any clear picture at this point.

I think the picture is crystal clear

In people's minds, perhaps...but in reality, it ain't--not yet.

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Just says to me that there’s no way for us to have any clear picture at this point.

I think the picture is crystal clear

There are sw’s appearing and disappearing each run. There’s no way that the picture is clear.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yep...and if this comes down to the timing of those two waves like @showmethesnow posted earlier...yeah, the models ain't gonna have that figured out yet.

Fact is we don't really have a single piece of guidance providing a significant snow event for the area. Even the ens members are backing off. If we had support for this on guidance rather than us trying to will a SECS out of a needle in a haystack, I would agree with you. Just doesnt appear to be working out right now. Could change but I would prefer more model support. Did you notice we've all but lost any suppressed looks? That is generally telling. Still time but imo this is setting up as another fail.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

Potential is still there but timing is so off right now

Exactly...would much rather have to deal with out of whack timing at this range than, well, what we've had all winter, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fact is we don't really have a single piece of guidance providing a significant snow event for the area. Even the ens members are backing off. If we had support for this on guidance rather than us trying to will a SECS out of a needle in a haystack, I would agree with you. Just doesnt appear to be working out right now. Could change but I would prefer more model support. Did you notice we've all but lost any suppressed looks? That is generally telling. Still time but imo this is setting up as another fail.

Going by showtime's post earlier...if timing is the issue right now, I'm not sure the looks we see now we can just assume to be verbatim. I'd say give it till Tuesday...

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looks like 12z started a trend to lose that nice nosing HP to the N of the low. 18z continued the trend. Now the cold high moves in behind the system instead at 0z.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like 12z started a trend to lose that nice nosing HP to the N of the low. 18z continued the trend. Now the cold high moves in behind the system instead at 0z.

Yeah, the models got this one locked in real good...lol Gonna be a wild tracking weekend/week!

[Chris78]

Theres pretty good confluence to the north of us. GFS is close. 

But if the euro/eps isnt enthused then it probably isnt happening.

I mentioned a couple weeks ago IMHO how impressive the euro is and it seems it can be on an island by itself and all the other models will trend to it.

[MD Snow]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah, the models got this one locked in real good...lol Gonna be a wild tracking weekend/week!

It actually appears that they are all coming closer to a final solution. It’s pretty obvious. The artic front is lagging behind the s/w now across all guidance. Thus we have no real cold air source. The gfs and icon had the front coming in at the right time to provide cold and a nice HP to the north. They’ve lost that now. Lagging behind. The euro has always been lagging the front behind. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

LOL at some of these posts. GFS comes in much more supressed, but the models are converging. LOL. They are all over the place at 500. Just toggle between runs starting at about 96 hours. 

[MD Snow]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL at some of these posts. GFS comes in much more supressed, but the models are converging. LOL. They are all over the place at 500. Just toggle between runs starting at about 96 hours. 

It doesn’t matter. No cold air. No high to the north. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

It doesn’t matter. No cold air. No high to the north. 

And yet it was there  two runs ago. This time the high comes in late. So that's three runs, three different solutions, lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

 

3 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

It doesn’t matter. No cold air. No high to the north. 

^^this

This is the problem we've had this winter with nearly every. Single. Threat.

[MD Snow]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

And yet it was there  two runs ago. This time the high comes in late. So that's three runs, three different solutions, lol

Exactly. Worst model out there right now. 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL at some of these posts. GFS comes in much more supressed, but the models are converging. LOL. They are all over the place at 500. Just toggle between runs starting at about 96 hours. 

Exactly. The GFS has nice confluence pressing down. Its really not that far from something but the timing just seems a bit off.

Hope we see some  improvements with euro. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And yet it was there  two runs ago. This time the high comes in late. So that's three runs, three different solutions, lol

 But its almost across the majority of guidance now with even individual ens members jumping to the same looks. Again like said earlier, there is plenty of time still but the way this is unfolding is the same exact process we have seen the entire winter. There is just no getting around that right now.

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

It doesn’t matter. No cold air. No high to the north. 

Unlike other threats this year theres plenty of cold to our north. We just need to be able to tap some of it. Either the NS needs to speed up or the SS slow down a bit.

[Ji]

 But its almost across the majority of guidance now with even individual ens members jumping to the same looks. Again like said earlier, there is plenty of time still but the way this is unfolding is the same exact process we have seen the entire winter. There is just no getting around that right now.

This is your week and your storm. Do a better job defending your storm man!

[MD Snow]

Just now, Ji said:

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 But its almost across the majority of guidance now with even individual ens members jumping to the same looks. Again like said earlier, there is plenty of time still but the way this is unfolding is the same exact process we have seen the entire winter. There is just no getting around that right now.

This is your week and your storm. Do a better job defending your storm man!

CMC might give us something positive to write about. At least for one more night. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 But its almost across the majority of guidance now with even individual ens members jumping to the same looks. Again like said earlier, there is plenty of time still but the way this is unfolding is the same exact process we have seen the entire winter. There is just no getting around that right now.

Like @Chris78 said...the cold air to the north is something we haven't had in a setup all winter. This time around it's not a lack of cold air available...now what the models have to figure out is the timing. If you think about our other "threats" this season...there was always a lack of cold air to tap into. This time...we do.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Unlike other threats this year theres plenty of cold to our north. We just need to be able to tap some of it. Either the NS needs to speed up or the SS slow down a bit.

Problem is, the window for this to work is getting tighter. Speed up the NS and it shears out the sj wave. Slow down the sj wave and it tries to phase with ns energy too far West causing heights to rise in the se and a cutter-ish scenario. It is looking like a tightrope walk and us trying to walk a tightrope usually looks like this:

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 But its almost across the majority of guidance now with even individual ens members jumping to the same looks. Again like said earlier, there is plenty of time still but the way this is unfolding is the same exact process we have seen the entire winter. There is just no getting around that right now.

This is your week and your storm. Do a better job defending your storm man!

Ha! I wish I could control it bud.

[Ji]

Ggem which has been smoking all the models is much colder than gfs icon so far

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ggem which has been smoking all the models is much colder than gfs icon so far

still all rain

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Problem is, the window for this to work is getting tighter. Speed up the NS and it shears out the sj wave. Slow down the sj wave and it tries to phase with ns energy too far West causing heights to rise in the se and a cutter-ish scenario. It is looking like a tightrope walk and us trying to walk a tightrope usually looks like this:

Lol. Yep. We are in a crap pattern with no signs of changing anytime soon. There probably only a 2 or 3 day window.

At this point im just looking for acumalating snow. Doesnt have to be a big storm. But something would be nice. Lol.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ggem which has been smoking all the models is much colder than gfs icon so far

Last couple runs had hp in S Montana pressing SE. This run it  never enters the lower 48 until the system pulls away.

[yoda]

Congrats N MD on the CMC