87storms Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS caved to northern solution. Go figure i think it's gonna be entirely up to the northern stream and how much/how fast the cold infiltrates this area, if at all. the boundary seems pretty close, so this could fluctuate a bit over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Shocker. It's almost like the AO still being really positive means everything tracks north of us. Who knew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Icon has the High further East and better timing with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Shocker. It's almost like the AO still being really positive means everything tracks north of us. Who knew? Didn’t see this coming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just toggle the changes from run to run at h5. No way you will get an idea of this one before at least Monday. Maybe not then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Shocker. It's almost like the AO still being really positive means everything tracks north of us. Who knew? Exactly. The long wave pattern continues to be the same ol' shit. And we will continue to see the same results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: Didn’t see this coming. And quite frankly I have to wonder if it might be going come next run...A jump like that ain't a cave. That's a "I don't know what the heck is gonna happen" jump...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Just toggle the changes from run to run at h5. No way you will get an idea of this one before at least Monday. Maybe not then. True. But north of us fits the pattern way north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Just toggle the changes from run to run at h5. No way you will get an idea of this one before at least Monday. Maybe not then. Right...Never a good idea to live run to run on something like this (particularly at Day 7 still) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 remember the old days where on the way to screwing us...the gfs would do it incrementally....from suppressed to big hit to warm and rain. Now it skips the middle part so we don't even get to see digital blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: remember the old days where on the way to screwing us...the gfs would do it incrementally....from suppressed to big hit to warm and rain. Now it skips the middle part so we don't even get to see digital blue Yes. And there is nothing to argue anything but warm and rain at h5. It’s not like it’s off it’s rocker or anything. If you were putting money on the outcome you’d bet rain and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: remember the old days where on the way to screwing us...the gfs would do it incrementally....from suppressed to big hit to warm and rain. Now it skips the middle part so we don't even get to see digital blue Yep, sign of the time, and we are running out of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Why did we even think this was going to happen? A couple of good Icon runs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 18z is a good look as expected actually......for NE. Would it transpire any other way? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 So all of you have concluded that certainly this Day 6/7 solution clearly must be the accurate one...No matter that it was suppressed for three runs and jumped...no matter that it's just one run in an unresolved setup. My goodness, people. Taking a break from here until 0z...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And quite frankly I have to wonder if it might be going come next run...A jump like that ain't a cave. That's a "I don't know what the heck is gonna happen" jump...lol Well, I only read what @Bob Chill mentioned about the 12Z GEFS ensembles, that they basically ran the gamut of possible outcomes with no consensus (good hits, rain, suppressed/nothing). So not overly surprising that a deterministic op run would now show us getting rain whereas before it was suppressed. So yeah, basically, the model saying "Who the F knows?" Can a model drop the F bomb?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 I believe that given this pattern that we're locked into, saying winter cancel is simply the wrong thing to do. Why? It never really started. Simply put, this winter with its +NAO and raging Pacific jet is a total disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well, I only read what @Bob Chill mentioned about the 12Z GEFS ensembles, that they basically ran the gamut of possible outcomes with no consensus (good hits, rain, suppressed/nothing). So not overly surprising that a deterministic op run would now show us getting rain whereas before it was suppressed. So yeah, basically, the model saying "Who the F knows?" Can a model drop the F bomb?? If F stand for frontogenesis...then yes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 We need to see that NS energy in front of the SW energy as seen below to have a chance. If we see it running behind, such as the second map (18z), we will see the low cut. Really wouldn't concern myself with the latest run because more then likely we will see those features flip flop around over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Latest GEFS saw improvement at 500's over the 12 Z. eta: Of course the snowfall maps didn't agree with me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: If F stand for frontogenesis...then yes! ...or "fuggedaboutit"!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: remember the old days where on the way to screwing us...the gfs would do it incrementally....from suppressed to big hit to warm and rain. Now it skips the middle part so we don't even get to see digital blue Just wait until I come back. President's day week, we are going to get clocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Latest GEFS saw improvement at 500's over the 12 Z. eta: Of course the snowfall maps didn't agree with me. Ya know, I really wish snowfall maps didn't go beyond like, 84 hours...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Ya know, I really wish snowfall maps didn't go beyond like, 84 hours...lolThen you would never see digital snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya know, I really wish snowfall maps didn't go beyond like, 84 hours...lol Then you would never see digital snow Eh, digital snow totals don't really do it for me, for some reason...lol (not unless they are an actual possibility) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 10 hours ago, psuhoffman said: ETA: Had I done some of the data analysis I did a few weeks ago wrt the solar cycle and QBO...I probably would not have been as bullish (wrong) about this winter. Live and learn. I will not make that mistake again. Very insightful and totally agree. I plan to read and do some learning during the summer regarding the drivers that Tom follows. I believe you said you might do so as well. During the later part of 2020 we will have a firmly established - QBO at all levels, if not sooner . Looking forward to seeing some better results in the NAO domain during the next couple years. If you want another area/topic to read then this one sounds interesting from Anthony . I imagine we really need to focus once again on the IO. and this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 ICON at 120 has a completely different look upstairs. Wild stuff going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 ICON at 120 has a completely different look upstairs. Wild stuff going on.That cant be good because the icon was kind of good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON at 120 has a completely different look upstairs. Wild stuff going on. That cant be good because the icon was kind of good Just says to me that there’s no way for us to have any clear picture at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON at 120 has a completely different look upstairs. Wild stuff going on. Looks like the UKMET and Euro tbh. Cutter / overamped too soon gonna likely win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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