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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The heck with middle of the road. Give me a quality event, cold with 8-10” + or give me nothing.

I have become the Patrick Henry of winter weather.

Something tells me that if this comes together right, the corridor might get a foot or perhaps a bit more. But of course I'm just basing it on history...lol VD/PD weekend...every 3-4 year streak...etc (and the fact that QPF hasn't been an issue this year) But, it's still early...so we shall see!

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Something tells me that if this comes together right, the corridor might get a foot or perhaps a bit more. But of course I'm just basing it on history...lol VD/PD weekend...every 3-4 year streak...etc. But still far out!

Really? I dont mean any disrespect but haven't you learned yet? We are a week out, solutions are mixed, and you are dropping 1' amounts? I know you said "IF things come together right" but isnt that the usual caveat with any storm?

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Really? I dont mean any disrespect but haven't you learned yet? We are a week out, solutions are mixed, and you are dropping 1' amounts? I know you said "IF things come together right" but isnt that the usual caveat with any storm?

He meant to say 2' and I agree with him. If things come together right that is.

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

True. And PSU hasn’t stopped talking about March 93 all year.

Might as well set the bar sky high for this one....probably our last legit tracker of the season. I'm thinking with a perfectly timed event we could eek out 3' DCA-NYC with 4' lollis. No mixing. Poorly timed event and 0. All or nothing...throwing my hat in, why not?

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21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Really? I dont mean any disrespect but haven't you learned yet? We are a week out, solutions are mixed, and you are dropping 1' amounts? I know you said "IF things come together right" but isnt that the usual caveat with any storm?

Oh yes...that is indeed why I said IF, haha But I believe in history...history doesn't have to repeat, but I find with our weather...particularly with snow...sometimes it does. It has been on a clock for 27 years when it comes to 1 and 2 foot snows. Sure, it could end at anytime...but here we are looking at a threat in a small window during an otherwise hostile pattern. And it takes place on a weekend where we've gotten snowfall before (but not in the last several years, though)

Doesn't have to, though...this could go poof for all we know, lol But I'm saying... for the last several years, not much that we have gotten (at least in the corridor, and minus DC's foot last year) has been in between--it either does a little bit/nothing (that is <5 inches) or snows a lot (10 or more).

OR...Perhaps a March storm would give us the every 3-4 year footer--but I have my doubts about that. Next weekend seems like the one window, but we'll see...

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh yes...that is indeed why I said IF. But I believe in history...history doesn't have to repeat, but I find with our weather...particularly with snow...sometimes it does. It has been on a clock for 27 years when it comes to 1 and 2 foot snows. Sure, it could end at anytime...but here we are looking at a threat in a small window during an otherwise hostile pattern. And it takes place on a weekend where we've gotten snowfall before (but not in the last several years, though)

Doesn't have to, though...this could go poof for all we know, lol But I'm saying... for the last several years, not much that we have gotten (at least in the corridor, and minus DC's foot last year) has been in between--it either does a little bit/nothing (that is <5 inches) or snows a lot (10 or more).

OR...Perhaps a March storm would give us the every 3-4 year footer--but I have my doubts about that. Next weekend seems like the one window, but we'll see...

I see what you are saying and tbh I used to think along those lines 30 years ago until I realized the weather is always changing, patterns are always flipping, and records are still being broken. Weather will do what it wants, when it wants. I hope you are right though and the 1' storm happens this year....I dont think anyone would complain. I was more poking you in regards to throwing potential snowfall totals on a system that hasn't even been modeled consistently at all up to this point. 

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I see what you are saying and tbh I used to think along those lines 30 years ago until I realized the weather is always changing, patterns are always flipping, and records are still being broken. Weather will do what it wants, when it wants. I hope you are right though and the 1' storm happens this year....I dont think anyone would complain. I was more poking you in regards to throwing potential snowfall totals on a system that hasn't even been modeled consistently at all up to this point. 

I hear ya (and I figured I was walking very close to the line with that post, lol) And tbh, I was just about to give up on 3-4 year thing because of how hostile the pattern has been...but then this threat pops up (and on a spot on the calendar where we have done pretty good at times!). Kinda hard not to get sucked in. As I said the other day...it's gonna be history vs the hostile pattern. Who shall be victorious? Stay tuned! :D

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I see what you are saying and tbh I used to think along those lines 30 years ago until I realized the weather is always changing, patterns are always flipping, and records are still being broken. Weather will do what it wants, when it wants. I hope you are right though and the 1' storm happens this year....I dont think anyone would complain. I was more poking you in regards to throwing potential snowfall totals on a system that hasn't even been modeled consistently at all up to this point. 

Human nature is to find reasons/explanations for everything. With weather we can "make a case" for just about anything but in reality weather does whatever the F it wants. I don't use any type of "streak" except maybe the PDO and AO/NAO. They do follow some sort of multi-decadal pattern where a bias towards + or - does prevail for a time. Even then, any given year can break out from whatever it's "supposed to do". 

I honestly think the closest analog to weather is the stock market. The absolute best in the business with the most powerful computers and endless data still only hit 50-60% of the time. That can be offset with risk mitigation because you actually have control over keeping your losses small and let your winners run. Weather cannot be controlled AT ALL. We could get 3 blizzards between now and the end of March and the only explanation is luck and chaos. 

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10 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

The experts should weigh in if I’m wrong but the 12z GEFS/EPS suites were pretty awful.  GEFS leaves the door open a crack for late next week, but otherwise it’s an awful look all the way through the next 15 days.  I really hope things change soon.  

I've raised the white flag for any type of long duration good regime this winter. Base state is hostile and time is just about up on turning that around. Doesn't mean we're doomed. Just need to treat every possible window/event in isolation as they present themselves and not forget the general base state isn't good. Is what it is. I'm not even bummed anymore. I'm ready for spring. I'd love a storm or 2 or 3 of course but if nothing breaks right then so be it. Can force a circle in a square or whatever the saying is. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I've raised the white flag for any type of long duration good regime this winter. Base state is hostile and time is just about up on turning that around. Doesn't mean we're doomed. Just need to treat every possible window/event in isolation as they present themselves and not forget the general base state isn't good. Is what it is. I'm not even bummed anymore. I'm ready for spring. I'd love a storm or 2 or 3 of course but if nothing breaks right then so be it. Can force a circle in a square or whatever the saying is. 

lol, i always get that saying mixed up as well.  going into spring without a snowstorm is a bit lame, but what can ya do.  i agree that any prolonged wintry stretch is, well, a stretch, but we've had these quick cold shots so i still think a storm is possible...maybe a couple.  just won't end up being a traditional, 1980s winter.

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This week's 3-4 week forecast brings us almost to the end of the snowfall season.  Warmer- and wetter-than normal is the forecast but we can live with 50-55% chance of above normal temperatures.  I think last week's 2-category forecast gave us nearly a 70% chance of above normal temperatures. 

 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

The ECMWF and JMA models are in agreement for the Week 3/4 forecast, while the CFS is almost exactly out of phase with the others over North America. The ECMWF and JMA solutions feature anomalous ridging over the North Pacific and southeastern U.S., with the strongest anomalous troughing contained to eastern Canada. Both of these solutions suggest a +NAO pattern and the JMA is a bit stronger than the ECMWF. The CFS's solution has a similar height pattern over the North Pacific, but its positive anomalies extend further east and cover much of the western U.S. It also forecasts an anomalous trough over the eastern U.S. The SubX multimodel ensemble is very similar to the ECMWF and JMA solutions. 

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