Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The heck with middle of the road. Give me a quality event, cold with 8-10” + or give me nothing. I have become the Patrick Henry of winter weather. Something tells me that if this comes together right, the corridor might get a foot or perhaps a bit more. But of course I'm just basing it on history...lol VD/PD weekend...every 3-4 year streak...etc (and the fact that QPF hasn't been an issue this year) But, it's still early...so we shall see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 12Z EPS Control likes a storm in 2 weeks so not giving up hope yet. About 6 weeks and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Something tells me that if this comes together right, the corridor might get a foot or perhaps a bit more. But of course I'm just basing it on history...lol VD/PD weekend...every 3-4 year streak...etc. But still far out! Really? I dont mean any disrespect but haven't you learned yet? We are a week out, solutions are mixed, and you are dropping 1' amounts? I know you said "IF things come together right" but isnt that the usual caveat with any storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12Z EPS Control likes a storm in 2 weeks so not giving up hope yet. About 6 weeks and counting. The euro control has a snowstorm for our area every run. It’s programmed to do that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Really? I dont mean any disrespect but haven't you learned yet? We are a week out, solutions are mixed, and you are dropping 1' amounts? I know you said "IF things come together right" but isnt that the usual caveat with any storm? He meant to say 2' and I agree with him. If things come together right that is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, showmethesnow said: He meant to say 2' and I agree with him. If things come together right that is. Well Bob already said Jan 16. Now you’ve thrown your hat in as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12Z EPS Control likes a storm in 2 weeks so not giving up hope yet. About 6 weeks and counting. Relative to what the EPS control usually spits out for this area, that map is a virtual shut-out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well Bob already said Jan 16. Now you’ve thrown your hat in as well. I saw PSU mention March 1958 and JB is on the March 93 train so we have some epic times ahead apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I saw PSU mention March 1958 and JB is on the March 93 train so we have some epic times ahead apparently. True. And PSU hasn’t stopped talking about March 93 all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: True. And PSU hasn’t stopped talking about March 93 all year. Might as well set the bar sky high for this one....probably our last legit tracker of the season. I'm thinking with a perfectly timed event we could eek out 3' DCA-NYC with 4' lollis. No mixing. Poorly timed event and 0. All or nothing...throwing my hat in, why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro control has a snowstorm for our area every run. It’s programmed to do that. Actually it's been the opposite this year on average. Control has been stingy AF. The only time it's posted is when it's good. That's not very often.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Really? I dont mean any disrespect but haven't you learned yet? We are a week out, solutions are mixed, and you are dropping 1' amounts? I know you said "IF things come together right" but isnt that the usual caveat with any storm? Oh yes...that is indeed why I said IF, haha But I believe in history...history doesn't have to repeat, but I find with our weather...particularly with snow...sometimes it does. It has been on a clock for 27 years when it comes to 1 and 2 foot snows. Sure, it could end at anytime...but here we are looking at a threat in a small window during an otherwise hostile pattern. And it takes place on a weekend where we've gotten snowfall before (but not in the last several years, though) Doesn't have to, though...this could go poof for all we know, lol But I'm saying... for the last several years, not much that we have gotten (at least in the corridor, and minus DC's foot last year) has been in between--it either does a little bit/nothing (that is <5 inches) or snows a lot (10 or more). OR...Perhaps a March storm would give us the every 3-4 year footer--but I have my doubts about that. Next weekend seems like the one window, but we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh yes...that is indeed why I said IF. But I believe in history...history doesn't have to repeat, but I find with our weather...particularly with snow...sometimes it does. It has been on a clock for 27 years when it comes to 1 and 2 foot snows. Sure, it could end at anytime...but here we are looking at a threat in a small window during an otherwise hostile pattern. And it takes place on a weekend where we've gotten snowfall before (but not in the last several years, though) Doesn't have to, though...this could go poof for all we know, lol But I'm saying... for the last several years, not much that we have gotten (at least in the corridor, and minus DC's foot last year) has been in between--it either does a little bit/nothing (that is <5 inches) or snows a lot (10 or more). OR...Perhaps a March storm would give us the every 3-4 year footer--but I have my doubts about that. Next weekend seems like the one window, but we'll see... I see what you are saying and tbh I used to think along those lines 30 years ago until I realized the weather is always changing, patterns are always flipping, and records are still being broken. Weather will do what it wants, when it wants. I hope you are right though and the 1' storm happens this year....I dont think anyone would complain. I was more poking you in regards to throwing potential snowfall totals on a system that hasn't even been modeled consistently at all up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: He meant to say 2' and I agree with him. If things come together right that is. I wanted to say that for north and west of the corridor...but I resisted, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I see what you are saying and tbh I used to think along those lines 30 years ago until I realized the weather is always changing, patterns are always flipping, and records are still being broken. Weather will do what it wants, when it wants. I hope you are right though and the 1' storm happens this year....I dont think anyone would complain. I was more poking you in regards to throwing potential snowfall totals on a system that hasn't even been modeled consistently at all up to this point. I hear ya (and I figured I was walking very close to the line with that post, lol) And tbh, I was just about to give up on 3-4 year thing because of how hostile the pattern has been...but then this threat pops up (and on a spot on the calendar where we have done pretty good at times!). Kinda hard not to get sucked in. As I said the other day...it's gonna be history vs the hostile pattern. Who shall be victorious? Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I see what you are saying and tbh I used to think along those lines 30 years ago until I realized the weather is always changing, patterns are always flipping, and records are still being broken. Weather will do what it wants, when it wants. I hope you are right though and the 1' storm happens this year....I dont think anyone would complain. I was more poking you in regards to throwing potential snowfall totals on a system that hasn't even been modeled consistently at all up to this point. Human nature is to find reasons/explanations for everything. With weather we can "make a case" for just about anything but in reality weather does whatever the F it wants. I don't use any type of "streak" except maybe the PDO and AO/NAO. They do follow some sort of multi-decadal pattern where a bias towards + or - does prevail for a time. Even then, any given year can break out from whatever it's "supposed to do". I honestly think the closest analog to weather is the stock market. The absolute best in the business with the most powerful computers and endless data still only hit 50-60% of the time. That can be offset with risk mitigation because you actually have control over keeping your losses small and let your winners run. Weather cannot be controlled AT ALL. We could get 3 blizzards between now and the end of March and the only explanation is luck and chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 The experts should weigh in if I’m wrong but the 12z GEFS/EPS suites were pretty awful. GEFS leaves the door open a crack for late next week, but otherwise it’s an awful look all the way through the next 15 days. I really hope things change soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The experts should weigh in if I’m wrong but the 12z GEFS/EPS suites were pretty awful. GEFS leaves the door open a crack for late next week, but otherwise it’s an awful look all the way through the next 15 days. I really hope things change soon. I've raised the white flag for any type of long duration good regime this winter. Base state is hostile and time is just about up on turning that around. Doesn't mean we're doomed. Just need to treat every possible window/event in isolation as they present themselves and not forget the general base state isn't good. Is what it is. I'm not even bummed anymore. I'm ready for spring. I'd love a storm or 2 or 3 of course but if nothing breaks right then so be it. Can force a circle in a square or whatever the saying is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As it should. We need a damn near perfectly timed ejection and trajectory of the stj sw in conjunction with confluence hanging in just long enough. What could.go wrong? That's my specialty, i'll take care of it for you. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Here is the one inch prob map through the period of interest. Looking good! were not that far from from 100% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 I’m just patiently waiting for the happy hour GFS to bring home the Valentines Day bacon. Apparently, all we need is a perfectly timed ejection... ...by a raven. Hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: were not that far from from 100% Or 0%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I've raised the white flag for any type of long duration good regime this winter. Base state is hostile and time is just about up on turning that around. Doesn't mean we're doomed. Just need to treat every possible window/event in isolation as they present themselves and not forget the general base state isn't good. Is what it is. I'm not even bummed anymore. I'm ready for spring. I'd love a storm or 2 or 3 of course but if nothing breaks right then so be it. Can force a circle in a square or whatever the saying is. lol, i always get that saying mixed up as well. going into spring without a snowstorm is a bit lame, but what can ya do. i agree that any prolonged wintry stretch is, well, a stretch, but we've had these quick cold shots so i still think a storm is possible...maybe a couple. just won't end up being a traditional, 1980s winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 55 minutes ago, Ji said: were not that far from from 100% Also not that far from zero. eta- nw baltimore wx beat me to it. I should probably read the thread a bit before replying lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 12z Gefs suggest a possibility of a light event overnight Tuesday/ Wed am . I think the op has also shown something in past runs . Something to watch . But it could come down to a perfectly timed RW ejection Don't you mean RR? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 This week's 3-4 week forecast brings us almost to the end of the snowfall season. Warmer- and wetter-than normal is the forecast but we can live with 50-55% chance of above normal temperatures. I think last week's 2-category forecast gave us nearly a 70% chance of above normal temperatures. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ The ECMWF and JMA models are in agreement for the Week 3/4 forecast, while the CFS is almost exactly out of phase with the others over North America. The ECMWF and JMA solutions feature anomalous ridging over the North Pacific and southeastern U.S., with the strongest anomalous troughing contained to eastern Canada. Both of these solutions suggest a +NAO pattern and the JMA is a bit stronger than the ECMWF. The CFS's solution has a similar height pattern over the North Pacific, but its positive anomalies extend further east and cover much of the western U.S. It also forecasts an anomalous trough over the eastern U.S. The SubX multimodel ensemble is very similar to the ECMWF and JMA solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 SUPRESSED!!!! Oops, I was saving that for the next model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 GFS caved to northern solution. Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 18Z looks like a broken record! I have heard and seen the same thing again and again this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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