MD Snow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 From here it stalls and transfers to the coast, warms slightly but then begins to wrap back up at the end of its run. Ji will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON wont be suppressed. Not sure how amped and how far N or W it will be tho. Eta: trending to last nights UKIE. Suppression isnt going to be the way we fail. I've been burned with that statement several times over the years. I myself see how we can easily Fail with suppression if the general look presented with the GEFS/GFS is somewhat right. Get one of those pieces of energy rotating around the pv to ride just in front of the Southwest energy as it moves eastward and we are going to see it squashed/suppressed to our south potentially quite a bit depending on the timing and how far south that pv drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 LOL yeah don’t ever start a sentence with “We won’t be burned ...” Just asking for trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I've been burned with that statement several times over the years. I myself see how we can easily Fail with suppression if the general look presented with the GEFS/GFS is somewhat right. Get one of those pieces of energy rotating around the pv to ride just in front of the Southwest energy as it moves eastward and we are going to see it squashed/suppressed to our south potentially quite a bit depending on the timing and how far south that pv drops. I cant imagine that being our failure mode. Not this winter. I mean, yeah we could see a weak ass strung out wave with barely a surface reflection slide to our south, but probably not a legit wave. I would be shocked. Stranger things have happened though, I am sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 There’s potential. Not sure yet if this run will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 17 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Hardly ever is from what I can recall. Someone said yesterday we need congrats Atlanta to be in the game. Maybe that was you. Wasnt me but I echo those sentiments. Im not even invested in this one (yet) and I'm n and w of Philly. Get within 72 hours and maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 I’ll take it right there. But it is chuckle worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 GFS is closer. On to the CMC and EURO. My guess is the model war currently going on between gfs and euro will be resolved by tomorrow 12z if not sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 GFS is improved but I'm not sure it is handling the NS correctly and is likely up to its antics of overdoing the cold push. Better baby steps so far at 12z. At least @Ji now has the digital snow on some guidance he was begging for last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 44 minutes ago, frd said: Ha ha that sounds Isotherm-ish ...... but yeah makes perfect sense. The lag effect and all. In regards to your mention of the warm oceans I know HM posted some very interesting info on the ocean temps and SST profile near Aussie along with the +IOD. Hopefully that look changes by next year, as Anthony believes it effected everything downstream and the jet as well. I feel the -NAO makes a winter return in a big way either next year or the year after. I don't know if its "lag effect" or if the actual effect that causes the propensity for a -NAO is the increasing solar radiation while in a still relatively low background state. I know in the last few months I have done a little more digging into the statistics and the propensity for more -NAO AFTER the solar minimum is obvious. Furthermore...some of the "correlations" I've seen people post regarding certain factors while in "low solar" state when you examine the years seem to be skewed by the extreme -NAO from the members of the data set that occurred AFTER the solar minimum but still in a low solar background state. There doesn't seem to be as much effect in low solar before the minimum. You have to be careful when using data sets that only include a limited number of years that one subset within the larger set isn't skewing the results. Either way we SHOULD get some -NAO years coming up. If we go another 3 years after a solar minimum with no blocking THEN I would start to join the "why can't we get blocking anymore" group. ETA: Had I done some of the data analysis I did a few weeks ago wrt the solar cycle and QBO...I probably would not have been as bullish (wrong) about this winter. Live and learn. I will not make that mistake again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Good try GooFuS. You were oh so close. Maybe one day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Basically seeing the shortwave that the storm will key on being washed out/squashed as it moves east. Two things are causing this. The NS energy is running just in front of the SW and we have another SW running right behind our initial SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is improved but I'm not sure it is handling the NS correctly and is likely up to its antics of overdoing the cold push. Better baby steps so far at 12z. At least @Ji now has the digital snow on some guidance he was begging for last night. I'd like the GFS to stay south until about Monday night, honestly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I'd like the GFS to stay south until about Monday night, honestly. Best position we have been in all Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 lol- I gotta stop talking about kicking bunnies and stuff. I'm making someone angry 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: lol- I gotta stop talking about kicking bunnies and stuff. I'm making someone angry Looks good from my house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is improved but I'm not sure it is handling the NS correctly and is likely up to its antics of overdoing the cold push. Better baby steps so far at 12z. At least @Ji now has the digital snow on some guidance he was begging for last night. GFS wasn't far from a good if not very good solution. Speed that NS energy up just a little that is running just in front of the SW and we see that storm bump north somewhat for a decent event. Take out the trailing shortwave or have it lag farther behind and you have the potential for a coastal going to town in a good locale for our region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GFS wasn't far from a good if not very good solution. Speed that NS energy up just a little that is running just in front of the SW and we see that storm bump north somewhat for a decent event. Take out the trailing shortwave or have it lag farther behind and you have the potential for a coastal going to town in a good locale for our region. Best 'potential' of the season. Still a week out tho. Maybe....just maybe some Valentines Day love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 CMC isnt bad....I dont hate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 CMC gonna play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: CMC gonna play Nope. Slides south. Which isn't a bad thing at this range. It's still close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC isnt bad....I dont hate it i hate it. There is no digital snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Best 'potential' of the season. Still a week out tho. Maybe....just maybe some Valentines Day love. I fully expect that we are going to see a lot of different solutions pop up on the models over the coming days. Just the nature of the beast with the features in play where different timing will mean a world of difference with solutions. Come Tue/Wed is when I will start taking the models somewhat seriously, until then I am just along for the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, Ji said: i hate it. There is no digital snow Can you emotionally handle a Raleigh to Richmond blizzard while it's partly cloudy in Leesburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Can you emotionally handle a Raleigh to Richmond blizzard while it's partly cloudy in Leesburg? there isnt much i can actually handle 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 what sucks is i think this setup is do or die. We mess this up and its probably our last chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: what sucks is i think this setup is do or die. We mess this up and its probably our last chance I have no expectations. It's another thread-the-needle type where you are fighting the main teleconnections that don't support a significant snow event. How many times have we had a big snow under those parameters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 There are too many scattered pieces . If you go back to prior runs of gfs and cmc those pieces are just now showing up. When this happens I think it makes models jumpy and unreliable at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: lol- I gotta stop talking about kicking bunnies and stuff. I'm making someone angry At this point we can start sacrificing bunnies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There are too many scattered pieces . If you go back to prior runs of gfs and cmc those pieces are just now showing up. When this happens I think it makes models jumpy and unreliable at range. the main thing we need that we didnt get from the euro is cold air. Lets make sure we get the cold air first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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