AdamHLG Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Meanwhile, there are two tornado warning boxes in our CWA. Maybe the immediate focus should be an early start to severe season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it seems to undergo some perturbation over the next week or so, but then quickly recovers- as it has all winter. The time period mentioned by HM, however, timing is off for maximum effect, and as you stated, it recovers and remains very strong. No signs at all of any meaningful weakening or changes in the NAM state. Meanwhile you still have the fast Pac jet and under modeled WAR. Cutters continue and the basic repeating theme since last winter continues. Ocean temps rather warm for this time of year in the Western Atlantic as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 56 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Want to say once or twice in Nov/Dec but I could be wrong. Not counting on it because it is hard to discount the Euro. But the fact the Canadian is buying into it somewhat gives some hope. Canadian has led the pack plunging the PV into the States this season while the Euro would be reverse and pump heights. I know the atmosphere doesnt have a memory and all that stuff, but I will place my $$ on the Euro (the favorite) and take the easy money. I'm sure as a gambler tho, you would take the odds on the underdog correct? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 52 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Law of averages would argue something has to go right for us eventually? Nah who am I kidding lol Next Ice Age is gonna rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 34 minutes ago, AdamHLG said: Meanwhile, there are two tornado warning boxes in our CWA. Maybe the immediate focus should be an early start to severe season. Come join the dark side over in my severe season thread! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 If we could just have the timing of the cold front with the coastal on the 18th. Something to watch for at least another two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 WB GEFS thru Day 7. Highest probability I have seen for 3 inches or more in recent memory for NW suburbs. BUT one run, lets see if the probs. hold over the weekend and if EPS gets on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 44 minutes ago, AdamHLG said: Meanwhile, there are two tornado warning boxes in our CWA. Maybe the immediate focus should be an early start to severe season. Start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 35 minutes ago, frd said: The time period mentioned by HM, however, timing is off for maximum effect, and as you stated, it recovers and remains very strong. No signs at all of any meaningful weakening or changes in the NAM state. Meanwhile you still have the fast Pac jet and under modeled WAR. Cutters continue and the basic repeating theme since last winter continues. Ocean temps rather warm for this time of year in the Western Atlantic as well. And that I think is the killer. Was thinking about that yesterday. It’s almost like we have a summertime Bermuda high pattern. In late fall when we had that pool of anomalous warm water north of Alaska we speculated that it might have been the reason for the anomalous heights in that region. I wonder if this is the same scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And that I think is the killer. Was thinking about that yesterday. It’s almost like we have a summertime Bermuda high pattern. In late fall when we had that pool of anomalous warm water north of Alaska we speculated that it might have been the reason for the anomalous heights in that region. I wonder if this is the same scenario. The ultimate killer is the +AO, and then combine that with the pure crap pacific pattern, and snow chances are all but dead. The predominant storm track is to our NW, and it's very difficult to get any legit cold air here, outside of briefly behind cutters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GEFS thru Day 7. Highest probability I have seen for 3 inches or more in recent memory for NW suburbs. BUT one run, lets see it the probs. hold over the weekend and if EPS gets on board. That looks awful. it will be different next run tho. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And that I think is the killer. Was thinking about that yesterday. It’s almost like we have a summertime Bermuda high pattern. In late fall when we had that pool of anomalous warm water north of Alaska we speculated that it might have been the reason for the anomalous heights in that region. I wonder if this is the same scenario. That could be true, I feel they do at least have a role in reinforcing the WAR. Warmer SSTs in that area during the late summer and early Fall certainly extend warmth in the coastal plain. Many new warmth records have been are set from DC South in the late Fall, ( the last 10 years ) bluewave even spoke about this last October and November. The records set mimic the orientation of the offshore warmer SSTs extending all the way down to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The ultimate killer is the +AO, and then combine that with the pure crap pacific pattern, and snow chances are all but dead. The predominant storm track is to our NW, and it's very difficult to get any legit cold air here, outside of briefly behind cutters. In a hierarchy, of course the AO is near , or at the the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That looks awful. it will be different next run tho. It is not awful for the NW suburbs. But I would love a shift 50 SE rather than further NW so everyone is in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 37 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GEFS thru Day 7. Highest probability I have seen for 3 inches or more in recent memory for NW suburbs. BUT one run, lets see if the probs. hold over the weekend and if EPS gets on board. That's a crazy gradient. My house in the 90% plus. If i drive 40 miles east it drops to under 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And that I think is the killer. Was thinking about that yesterday. It’s almost like we have a summertime Bermuda high pattern. In late fall when we had that pool of anomalous warm water north of Alaska we speculated that it might have been the reason for the anomalous heights in that region. I wonder if this is the same scenario. 22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The ultimate killer is the +AO, and then combine that with the pure crap pacific pattern, and snow chances are all but dead. The predominant storm track is to our NW, and it's very difficult to get any legit cold air here, outside of briefly behind cutters. If 90% of the oceans (especially the pac) are going to be a hot tub we absolutely need the high latitudes to cooperate. It’s been this way for a while now. The only time we get a sustained workable pattern is when we get either a massive east based EPO ridge or a -NAO. Everything else equals a warm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 22 minutes ago, Weather Will said: It is nor awful for the NW suburbs. But I would love a shift 50 SE rather than further NW so everyone is in the game. Is there a particular time frame the gefs is keying on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If 90% of the oceans (especially the pac) are going to be a hot tub we absolutely need the high latitudes to cooperate. It’s been this way for a while now. The only time we get a sustained workable pattern is when we get either a massive east based EPO ridge or a -NAO. Everything else equals a warm pattern. do we need a massive La Nina to reset everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: do we need a massive La Nina to reset everything? Even though we'd have to give up a winter if that were to occur...if it could setup the next couple of winters afterward, I could take it (kind of...we had enough NS heartbreak a couple years ago, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: do we need a massive La Nina to reset everything? Been saying this for a while now. It's like a PC reboot. Sometimes you need a strong event. Even a strong nino might work tbh. But need to reshuffle the deck in the PAC for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Even though we'd have to give up a winter if that were to occur...if it could setup the next couple of winters afterward, I could take it (kind of...we had enough NS heartbreak a couple years ago, lol) 1995-96 nina. Just saying. During the solar min lag no? Maybe next year a Nina wouldnt respond like a typical nina with the solar lag many have discussed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Even though we'd have to give up a winter if that were to occur...if it could setup the next couple of winters afterward, I could take it (kind of...we had enough NS heartbreak a couple years ago, lol) I cant complain here about the back to back Ninas we had a few years ago. Some decent cold periods and a snowstorm in early Jan each year for eastern areas. In general they suck for snow for most of our region, but can deliver light to moderate events, and the occasional coastal bomb. I would be fine with a Nina "reset" after last winter and this current debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ji said: do we need a massive La Nina to reset everything? I don't know. We just had a 2 year la nina cycle from 2017-2018. It wasn't a strong event but it was a 2 year cold event that peaked moderate for a time in 2018. I think this is bigger than enso...look at the SST for the entire pacific...hell the entire globe for that matter....its warm almost everywhere. You are starting to punch above my pay grade though with speculating what the effects of a la nina would be on the overall profile...could it "reset" the walker cell circulation yea...or it could just give us a crappy nina winter then resume what we are in right now. What we might have to accept is this is just the new normal...honestly this isnt a new thing its just we had a nice run and now we are stuck in the middle of this crap but we forget how 1997-2002 was mostly crap except for one epic week in 2000. 2007-2009 was mostly crap. 2011-2013 was mostly crap. We have always had these cycles. However the "crap" periods are getting warmer and warmer with less fluke minor snowfalls within those periods. One thing that I think is getting overplayed is the idea that we can't get a -NAO anymore. The NAO runs in cycles. We have had periods with very little blocking before. But we actually had a GREAT period of blocking for about 6 weeks in 2016. We got the HECS and a couple minor snowfalls out of it. We had an epic blocking period from very late Feb through March in 2018. Had that started maybe 2 weeks earlier we probably get a 1958 type repeat out of that. We did get one really good snowfall in March and just barely missed a couple others. Last year we did get some blocking. It just wasn't the epic historic block to end all blocks that the long range guidance kept teasing. But we got enough of a block (bootleg or not) that it suppressed that December storm. We had enough blocking to get DC that 10" storm in January. And February had just enough blocking up top that I got a couple nice snowstorms here even with a completely awful Pacific pattern. Yea the NAO has been crazy positive this year...and overall positive most of the time the last several years...but its not like nao blocking has gone extinct for 10 years or something. People are over-reacting. Especially since there is usually a run of +NAO years leading up to the solar minimum and this minimum keeps getting pushed further out...once we reach minimum we should see a reversal to more -NAO in the years that follow. My best guess is that our new normal is to have even worse bad runs...years where we spend most of year in shutout no hope patterns...but then runs of epicness where the warmer profile means juiced up storms in cold periods...less odds of wasted cold. So the highs will be higher but the lows will be lower. That is probably our new normal. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Especially since there is usually a run of +NAO years leading up to the solar minimum and this minimum keeps getting pushed further out...once we reach minimum we should see a reversal to more -NAO in the years that follow. Ha ha that sounds Isotherm-ish ...... but yeah makes perfect sense. The lag effect and all. In regards to your mention of the warm oceans I know HM posted some very interesting info on the ocean temps and SST profile near Aussie along with the +IOD. Hopefully that look changes by next year, as Anthony believes it effected everything downstream and the jet as well. I feel the -NAO makes a winter return in a big way either next year or the year after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 ICON wont be suppressed. Not sure how amped and how far N or W it will be tho. Eta: trending to last nights UKIE. Suppression isnt going to be the way we fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So the highs will be higher but the lows will be lower. That is probably our new normal. Well, sounds like drug addiction tbh. But with that said, for many of us chasing a HECS can be comparable on a different level of course. Explains the mood swings here at times. We need a fix....stat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 A possible March look ahead based on two winters, Feb 1949 and Feb. 1990 which in a few ways look similar to this month so far, and then what followed in March in those two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, frd said: A possible March look ahead based on two winters, Feb 1949 and Feb. 1990 which in a few ways look similar to this month so far, and then what followed in March in those two years. March/April 1990 was relatively snowy with 10.4 inches at Dulles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Icon is acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON wont be suppressed. Not sure how amped and how far N or W it will be tho. Eta: trending to last nights UKIE. Suppression isnt going to be the way we fail. Hardly ever is from what I can recall. Someone said yesterday we need congrats Atlanta to be in the game. Maybe that was you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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