yoda Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I hope so. I'm in Greensville SC from Wednesday to Sunday. I need us to fail during this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I hope so. I'm in Greensville SC from Wednesday to Sunday. I need us to fail during this time. With friends like you, who needs enemies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 34 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I hope so. I'm in Greensville SC from Wednesday to Sunday. I need us to fail during this time. Ohhhh no! No deal, Luigi! Unless you're gonna get us a double HECS next winter in exchange...we ain't givin' up what may be our only window of potential, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Wait till the euro delivers tonight...with a low in Columbus and highs in the 70sUnreal...what is wrong with this model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Unreal...what is wrong with this model The power of the tongue, Ji...you spoke this model run into existence, lol Yeah that's odd that it wouldn't be anywhere close in temperatures or otherwise...(and you'd think with the Ukie even showing what it did...this would be different) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: I hope so. I'm in Greensville SC from Wednesday to Sunday. I need us to fail during this time. Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 hours ago, Ji said: Unreal...what is wrong with this model Gfs is trending to this. This pattern sucks. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 hours ago, Ji said: Unreal...what is wrong with this model That it shows the least amount of snow and has the highest percentage of accuracy. What an awful winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is trending to this. This pattern sucks. What a post. This the gfs at the same time ... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 You don’t trust models when they stand alone ... good or bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You don’t trust models when they stand alone ... good or bad You brightened up my whole day with that above map from 6z. Thank you sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Saw some teases for a potential Big Dog showing up for around the Friday time period. After looking over the overnight GEFS and the EPS I would probably put that on the back burner for the time being. To get a Big Dog so much has to go right with several features and good timing, that is to say if all the features actually exist, that at 6/7 days it is asking a lot of the models. That said I think the odds aren't too bad for a 2/4, 3/6 type of event IF we actually see a further south drop of the PV in the general Hudson Bay region as the GEFS has. EPS doesn't have this and the GEPS is a compromise between the two. Below we have the EPS. It has the features in place, 2 pieces of energy rotating around the PV and energy ejecting out of the SW. But it has 2 fatal flaws. The PV is too far north and the second piece of energy is dropping down into the SW strengthening it. The result of these two things is pretty much a disaster of epic proportions (nod to @Ji ). What we see is stronger height builds in the east in response to the stronger trough in the west and any suppression that is being created by the PV and associated energy rotating around it is too far north to counter react it. Thus the energy/low in the south is ejecting too soon and shooting up to our west. But if we look at the GEFS we are seeing a farther south drop of the pv in a favorable locale, which is first thing we need to see, and we are also seeing the second piece of energy bypassing the SW trough and moving eastward. Long story short, this is creating the suppression we need. Now if it was only that simple for getting a Big Dog out of this look, but it is not. The timing of the ejection of the SW energy in relation to those two pieces of energy rotating around the pv is key as well. What we will see is a waxing and waning of the suppression created by these two pieces of energy (first piece of energy is setting the boundary for the 2nd) and that will be key as to whether we end up with a stronger system running up from the south/coast or a weaker system suppressed more to the south or anything in between. That is if we don't see the NS outrun the SWE and we end up with a cutter (barring a 3rd piece of energy rotating around reinforcing the suppression and/or initiating a coastal a couple days later). Really at this point being at 6/7 days all options are still pretty much on the table considering this will be all about timing, with a Big Dog pretty much low on the list of probabilities. Now knowing what is in play at this point on the models I probably wouldn't take any one solution to heart. This probably won't be somewhat resolved until we get inside 3 days and that may be rushing it. But if we can see a semblance of this look at that point I might start biting at the idea of a possible Big Dog. But at this time I will set my sights on a minor event and if we get it I will consider it a win. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What a post. This the gfs at the same time ... Saw his post and I was like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 hours ago, Ji said: Unreal...what is wrong with this model Nothing. That's the problem. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 And let the games begin (for next Friday). 06Z gfs ejects the SW energy too quickly and it is getting squashed/sheered out by the first piece of energy rotating around the pv. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 36 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And let the games begin (for next Friday). 06Z gfs ejects the SW energy too quickly and it is getting squashed/sheered out by the first piece of energy rotating around the pv. Any wagers on which idea is closer to reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: The power of the tongue, Ji...you spoke this model run into existence, lol Yeah that's odd that it wouldn't be anywhere close in temperatures or otherwise...(and you'd think with the Ukie even showing what it did...this would be different) Isnt the ukie at H5 phasing too far West tho and also pumping heights out ahead in the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 52 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And let the games begin (for next Friday). 06Z gfs ejects the SW energy too quickly and it is getting squashed/sheered out by the first piece of energy rotating around the pv. Even the NAVGEM has the bowling ball and appears threatening. GFS is out to lunch imo. Bigger fail chance is going to be a phase too soon/amped solution and not flat squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 IMO the gfs ens members put us in a very good position for next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Any wagers on which idea is closer to reality? Wouldn't even want to hazard a guess. But if you forced me, one that doesn't produce any snow for us? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 7 hours ago, yoda said: Euro laughed at your meme. So there’s one person who liked it. 5 hours ago, Ji said: Unreal...what is wrong with this model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Even the NAVGEM has the bowling ball and appears threatening. GFS is out to lunch imo. You better hope that the GFS at least has the right idea about the PV drop otherwise I don't think it will make much difference what we see in the mid-latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: You better hope that the GFS at least has the right idea about the PV drop otherwise I don't think it will make much difference what we see in the mid-latitudes. See my 'eta' on the above post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: You better hope that the GFS at least has the right idea about the PV drop otherwise I don't think it will make much difference what we see in the mid-latitudes. Also, have we seen the PV drop even once this winter when forecast? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Also, have we seen the PV drop even once this winter when forecast? Asking for a friend. Want to say once or twice in Nov/Dec but I could be wrong. Not counting on it because it is hard to discount the Euro. But the fact the Canadian is buying into it somewhat gives some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Wouldn't even want to hazard a guess. But if you forced me, one that doesn't produce any snow for us? Yes I think I would be forced to go with the "seasonal trend". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yes I think I would be forced to go with the "seasonal trend". Law of averages would argue something has to go right for us eventually? Nah who am I kidding lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Also, have we seen the PV drop even once this winter when forecast? Asking for a friend. Speaking of PV... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 The AO does seem to take a dive and reach its bottom point around the time of this fake storm, but it's still positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: The AO does seem to take a dive and reach its bottom point around the time of this fake storm, but it's still positive. Yeah it seems to undergo some perturbation over the next week or so, but then quickly recovers- as it has all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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