Chris78 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Tpv se of hudson that becomes a 50/50 and a closed low tracking the deep south. If that's right it's a pretty big block. Could be too much. We'll know in 3 days or so. Ill take my chances with that look. It definitely gives us wiggleroom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Damn, ICON bringing the HECS. Straight river out of the gulf into a nasty 50/50 blocked high. Would be 1 foot of waa and another with the CCB. Nyc north would get nothing. A true MA special. Prob wrong but that's the best storm at hr180 I've seen this year. What a squeeze play... That's an ICONic look! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Looks like gfs wants to wait till the high slides off before it triggers our storm smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Gfs wants to try again a couple days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Gfs keys on a different sw...and a stale air mass but still produces a decent event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Tpv se of hudson that becomes a 50/50 and a closed low tracking the deep south. If that's right it's a pretty big block. Could be too much. We'll know in 3 days or so. Ya we cant waste this....may be our only chance this season. I bet sometime screws us and it would be something ironic like too much blocking lol.. I agree that this may be our only shot...just gotta hope we have PD weekend history on our side! (I don't even wanna think about "too much blocking"...the fact that that is even on the table of outcomes is truly ironic. But in a regime like this, you'd think it would be hard for that to get "too much", lol We shall see...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Looks like gfs wants to wait till the high slides off before it triggers our storm smh Nothing to hold the 50/50 in place and that's unlikely to change. It's a 3-4 day window tops before winds turn southerly in mids and surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All this chasing d15 or d150 or whatever and a big storm might sneak up on us inside of 8 days. The Great VD Storm of 2020 has legs and shouldn't be referred to as sneaky imo. The planetary alignment, SPV pummelling, and other LR ens data including weekly charts have all been signaling a large longwave event in the East during this time frame. Hopefully it comes together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Nothing to hold the 50/50 in place and that's unlikely to change. It's a 3-4 day window tops before winds turn southerly in mids and surfaceYep....this has to be timed perfectly. Thankfully were good at that..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Cmc looks a lot like the ICON at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 GFS ,Icon and Gem all have a bowling ball getting ready to traverse the deep south in about 4 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 As long as we can time a slow moving ULL to turn the corner right into transient confluence we're good. Can't really think of anything that can go wrong. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 I'll take suppression for now but I'd still prefer to see digital snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, Chris78 said: GFS ,Icon and Gem all have a bowling ball getting ready to traverse the deep south in about 4 days. GFS and CMC say no VD storm and have the same system with a stale airmass 2 days later. Eta: CMC a little slower departing the hp. In any event something wants to pop between Fri and Sun it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Ggem doing similar to gfs but way better position of high pressure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 00z CMC carries along the ill-fated GL low during our VD chance and its a swing and miss... but then keys in on the same time the 00z GFS did a few days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: As long as we can time a slow moving ULL to turn the corner right into transient confluence we're good. Can't really think of anything that can go wrong. Looks like to much of a good thing on the gem with confluence pressing down and squashing the storm. Honestly it feels pretty good talking about too much confluence rather than never ending storm tracks to our nw. Im certainly not worried at this point that if there is an actual storm that its a southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 GFS and CMC say no VD storm and have the same system with a stale airmass 2 days later. Cmc has way better cad though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS and CMC say no VD storm and have the same system with a stale airmass 2 days later. Cmc has way better cad though Thats cause at 204... the HP in Quebec is 1050mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS and CMC say no VD storm and have the same system with a stale airmass 2 days later. Cmc has way better cad though Yep just added.that above you ninja'd me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS and CMC say no VD storm and have the same system with a stale airmass 2 days later. Gfs and gem let confluence win out initially. That's the last worry on my mind lol. This is probably the best look weve had so far this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 This had best not turn into "but the Friday system is setting up the follow up storm" where both systems take a dump and the entire period fails. But that would never happen, so yeah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 850s go bye bye at just after 216 on 00z CMC.... so its a short term wintry precip time period... but its Day 9 so... yeah... 3-5 inches ain't bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Wait till the euro delivers tonight...with a low in Columbus and highs in the 70s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 17 minutes ago, Chris78 said: GFS ,Icon and Gem all have a bowling ball getting ready to traverse the deep south in about 4 days. 00z UKIE for comparison purposes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: 00z UKIE for comparison purposes Pretty good consensus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Ukie is sweet. Rippin STJ underneath the ULL. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: Ukie is sweet. Rippin STJ underneath the ULL. Juicy ... looks like the GOM will be open for business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 this is h5 at 144 for tonights 00z UKIE... farthest out it goes on PW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 17 minutes ago, Ji said: Wait till the euro delivers tonight...with a low in Columbus and highs in the 70s I hope so. I'm in Greensville SC from Wednesday to Sunday. I need us to fail during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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