PhineasC Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Topper just said 60s and upper 50s to Friday I think this one might be cooked, dude. I am bracing for a chilly mud season lasting through June, honestly. Heavy rain and 50s through May. It's going to be overcast, wet, and windy for like two months straight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I think this one might be cooked, dude. I am bracing for a chilly mud season lasting through June, honestly. Heavy rain and 50s through May. It's going to be overcast, wet, and windy for like two months straight. Seattle x4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: Seattle x4 The climate is definitely changing. I won't get into the cause, because honestly I haven't studied it that much. But things are different now than in my grandpappy's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 27 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Bob, just seems like we are in a bad decadal pattern at this point. 2003-2014 was a good run per historical norms. We are in a bad period. Starting in 2017-ish, so we have a few more years to go.The Blizzard of 2016 was unappreciated by many because it seemed lame compared to the 2009-2010 HECS events, but by 2024 we will be begging for half of it. Man ya really can't say for sure how long it's gonna be It's not always a "decadal pattern" per se (except for the NAO, perhaps...lol)...just look at our history. We have gone through stretches like this before...and each one varied in length. If you haven't already, I'd take a look at our total snowfall history here: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiDic26wr7nAhW0HDQIHW2nC-AQFjABegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw3Xws59lCrf_D3e3gn4bJeo You'll find a lot of boom and bust all throughout with little degree of consistency...lol But the point is...this ain't the first time. And I'm not sure we can predict what effects a changing climate may or may not have on our snow chances here (but I understand your worry about it being negative...we'll just have to see) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Man ya really can't say for sure how long it's gonna be It's not always a "decadal pattern" per se (except for the NAO, perhaps...lol)...just look at our history. We have gone through stretches like this before...and each one varied in length. If you haven't already, I'd take a look at our total snowfall history here: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiDic26wr7nAhW0HDQIHW2nC-AQFjABegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw3Xws59lCrf_D3e3gn4bJeo You'll find a lot of boom and bust all throughout with little degree of consistency...lol It could be fewer years, but we are in a shit long-term pattern right now. Maybe we break free next year. Keep checking the CFS, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Gonna score a digital hit with Icon around Valentines 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Gonna score a digital hit with Icon around Valentines Damn that looks really nice... and it'll be gone in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Gonna score a digital hit with Icon around ValentinesGefs 18z around same time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Damn that looks really nice... and it'll be gone in the morning 100% .....icon goes to 120 in the morning 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: Damn that looks really nice... and it'll be gone in the morning We can put it in the archives of lost storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Gefs 18z around same time Sign me up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Damn, ICON bringing the HECS. Straight river out of the gulf into a nasty 50/50 blocked high. Would be 1 foot of waa and another with the CCB. Nyc north would get nothing. A true MA special. Prob wrong but that's the best storm at hr180 I've seen this year. What a squeeze play... 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Damn, ICON bringing the HECS. Straight river out of the gulf into a nasty 50/50 blocked high. Would be 1 foot of waa and another with the CCB. Nyc north would get nothing. A true MA special. Prob wrong but that's the best storm at hr180 I've seen this year. What a squeeze play...This has been a very active southern stream year...like 2003....without the cold but it just takes one weekend where it comes together and you get pd2 or the storm of 1983 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 00z GFS looks decent at 150... like to see a bit stronger HP than 1036mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Damn, ICON bringing the HECS. Straight river out of the gulf into a nasty 50/50 blocked high. Would be 1 foot of waa and another with the CCB. Nyc north would get nothing. A true MA special. Prob wrong but that's the best storm at hr180 I've seen this year. What a squeeze play... This has been a very active southern stream year...like 2003....without the cold but it just takes one weekend where it comes together and you get pd2 or the storm of 1983 Gfs looks very similar to the icon at h5 hr144... confluence and an ULL tapping the gulf. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Gfs looks very similar to the icon at h5 hr144... confluence and an ULL tapping the gulf. Can you imagine if we got a hecs this winter in February lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Damn, ICON bringing the HECS. Straight river out of the gulf into a nasty 50/50 blocked high. Would be 1 foot of waa and another with the CCB. Nyc north would get nothing. A true MA special. Prob wrong but that's the best storm at hr180 I've seen this year. What a squeeze play... This has been a very active southern stream year...like 2003....without the cold but it just takes one weekend where it comes together and you get pd2 or the storm of 1983 GFS might bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs looks very similar to the icon at h5 hr144... confluence and an ULL tapping the gulf. ICON had a closed h5 though... GFS doesn't this run FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs looks very similar to the icon at h5 hr144... confluence and an ULL tapping the gulf. Can you imagine if we got a hecs this winter in February lol All this chasing d15 or d150 or whatever and a big storm might sneak up on us inside of 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Gfs will probably be a southern slider but love the look a week out. With the gfs modeling the cold push too strong out in time im good with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: ICON had a closed h5 though... GFS doesn't this run FWIW It was closed through 144. Same shortwave from the pac on the icon. It's a slow roller. Forms between d3-4. Something to watcn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 00z GFS another southern slider... gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 All this chasing d15 or d150 or whatever and a big storm might sneak up on us inside of 8 days. The modeling for next week ...starting about 5 days ago has been wild...snowstorms to cutters and 70...to sleet to rain...pretty much everything possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, Chris78 said: Gfs will probably be a southern slider but love the look a week out. With the gfs modeling the cold push too strong out in time im good with this. I'm back for one more time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, Chris78 said: Gfs will probably be a southern slider but love the look a week out. With the gfs modeling the cold push too strong out in time im good with this. No doubt. It's not going to lock in this far out. Just follow the ball. Could be in real time in 3 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 No doubt. It's not going to lock in this far out. Just follow the ball. Could be in real time in 3 daysThe 18z gefs was very wet though so its interesting for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All this chasing d15 or d150 or whatever and a big storm might sneak up on us inside of 8 days. Personally I've been eyeing next weekend based on history alone, lol PD weekend...4 years since the last footer...ya never know. (so I wouldn't be entirely shocked if this one found a way to work out--but it would be pretty funny considering what we've been through so far, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All this chasing d15 or d150 or whatever and a big storm might sneak up on us inside of 8 days. The modeling for next week ...starting about 5 days ago has been wild...snowstorms to cutters and 70...to sleet to rain...pretty much everything possible Tpv se of hudson that becomes a 50/50 and a closed low tracking the deep south. If that's right it's a pretty big block. Could be too much. We'll know in 3 days or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All this chasing d15 or d150 or whatever and a big storm might sneak up on us inside of 8 days. The modeling for next week ...starting about 5 days ago has been wild...snowstorms to cutters and 70...to sleet to rain...pretty much everything possible Yea, I've been mostly skipping looking too much. Really bouncy. Go to gfs @ hr126 and click previous run 8 times. That's not that far out in time. Models are all over the place for this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Tpv se of hudson that becomes a 50/50 and a closed low tracking the deep south. If that's right it's a pretty big block. Could be too much. We'll know in 3 days or so.Ya we cant waste this....may be our only chance this season. I bet sometime screws us and it would be something ironic like too much blocking lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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