WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm still not clear on the difference between BECS, MECS, and HECS (what amounts constitute each?). But I am going out on a limb and say...if we see anything that can be legit shoveled (that is 5"+) this year...it might just be a foot in the cities. Based on our history, a shocker in the next 8-12 days wouldn't surprise me as much (but then again slightly surprising given this regime) BUT...obviously, we gotta see if the +AO monster will relent just enough, and just long enough...when the precip nears. I'm still holding out hope, lol (but this is probably the most hostile regime to pull this off with...and I know we'll need some good fortune) So essentially...we have 27-year history versus the most hostile +AO we've ever seen in years. Who shall win? We'll find out soon enough... Allow me to clear it all up. None of them ever happen 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 25 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS.....Late next week and beyond we will hopefully have some tracking to do. That’s the best that has looked all year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s the best that has looked all year I'll take #31 please... but you know it will likely end up being #6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 37 minutes ago, Ji said: MECS--February 2014--any storm that falls into the 10-18 inch range MAJOR HECS---18 inches-2 Feet+ the once in a life time storms. HISTORICAL BECS-dosent exist---Noahs Flood(40 days/40 nights) but its all snow 40 days and 40 nights but its 33 and rain the whole time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 WB 12Z CMS AO Ensemble....Hope this is correct. Game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 24 minutes ago, yoda said: I'll take #31 please... but you know it will likely end up being #6 Yeah, #6 would be one of those that @Bob Chill would want to kick in the nads!! (Recalling his comment from weeks ago, when one day nearly all GEFS ensemble members had good or great snow over us, except for one!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z CMS AO Ensemble....Hope this is correct. Game changer. Not sure I would call that a game changer. Still a +AO, and it's the CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z CMS AO Ensemble....Hope this is correct. Game changer. The mean is still very positive. @C.A.P.E. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not sure I would call that a game changer. Still a +AO, and it's the CMC. Yes, but +1/+2 is MUCH better than +6... and it seems that at least its trending towards negative instead of trending upwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 We all need the Great Valentine's Day Storm so we can celebrate our love of the winter and of one another. Maybe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 18z GFS is a miss for VDay... but intriguing enough to keep watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, yoda said: 18z GFS is a miss for VDay... but intriguing enough to keep watch I'd say...the overall look alone is enough to keep at least one eye on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 That's a great look for a week out. With every cold shot backing off as we close in we need congrats Atlanta to have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 The potential next week is high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Huh, tonight’s GFS run has me intrigued for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Seems fitting we’d now miss one to the south and NC will get a big storm. Watch this be the one time this season the cold press gets stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 16 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GFS is a miss for VDay... but intriguing enough to keep watch It has had a suppressed wave for 3 straight runs now. Euro had a flat/suppressed wave today too around the 15th. Something to keep an eye on for sure. The way this winter has gone, it will probably be a flat, strung out, weak pos, followed by an amped cutter as the cold departs. Or, maybe we will see some legit changes and a turning of the worm. Law of averages/we are due and shiit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The potential for continued failure next week is high Fixed. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Fixed It will be Spartanburg to Greensboro event, snow dome in full operational mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Seems fitting we’d now miss one to the south and NC will get a big storm. Watch this be the one time this season the cold press gets stronger. Fine by me. I'll take EPS #6 and post pictures from my front porch! Seriously, though, some of the dogwoods and cherry trees already have full bloom flowers on them. Most Grass is green. Even the Bermuda is coming to life. All of the mixed grasses are green and have already been mowed in my neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s the best that has looked all year yes it's great to see a few hits to our south. EPS mean is still only 2+"; however, at least for College Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Topper just said 60s and upper 50s to Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Topper just said 60s and upper 50s to Friday 384hr on GFS has 70. Two weekends from now. we should be mowing by then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Seems fitting we’d now miss one to the south and NC will get a big storm. Watch this be the one time this season the cold press gets stronger. It would be very fitting right? I don't have strong feelings one way or the other right now because next week never looked like it does now until the last few days. I wouldn't put my money on deep cold and suppressed storms. We've had a number of LR looks showing that and it never remotely came close to verifying. Under 10 days now so this time is a little different. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 18z GEFS implying a -EPO/+PNA towards day 15. 12z run had the +PNA look at the end. Also looks like the AO is trending more towards neutral. Decent look overall. Question is if it is even remotely close to reality lol. Maybe the current MJO forecast provides a clue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 WB 18Z GEFS thru end of run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plow'n Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: It would be very fitting right? I don't have strong feelings one way or the other right now because next week never looked like it does now until the last few days. I wouldn't put my money on deep cold and suppressed storms. We've had a number of LR looks showing that and it never remotely came close to verifying. Under 10 days now so this time is a little different. Time will tell You'd like to think a blind squirrel will find a nut. I mean eventually these models will verify, even if by default Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Weeklies are ok, if you like a -NAO in March. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 54 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Weeklies are ok, if you like a -NAO in March. March is deep winter around here now, so yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It would be very fitting right? I don't have strong feelings one way or the other right now because next week never looked like it does now until the last few days. I wouldn't put my money on deep cold and suppressed storms. We've had a number of LR looks showing that and it never remotely came close to verifying. Under 10 days now so this time is a little different. Time will tell Bob, just seems like we are in a bad decadal pattern at this point. 2003-2014 was a good run per historical norms. We are in a bad period. Starting in 2017-ish, so we have a few more years to go.The Blizzard of 2016 was unappreciated by many because it seemed lame compared to the 2009-2010 HECS events, but by 2024 we will be begging for half of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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