jaydreb Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Did the overnight EPS hold our glimmer of hope around Feb 20th? No. It looked like trash IMO. Wall to wall ridging and above normal temp anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sometimes the strat stuff is overblown because the spv isn’t always coupled well with the tpv. And if the pv isn’t that strong then bottom up wave disruption can be good enough. But this year the spv and tpv have been as couples as I’ve ever seen and both are record strong, so it does matter. Yea the trop and strat coupled after mid dec when the tpv went to AK. Though, looks like they start to uncouple Atleast gfs based after the 10th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: While my first reaction to that was a primal scream, I do wonder if the cold would be enough to setup an overrunning event or something...But, let's just see if that general look stays there or not. IMO the last few runs of the GFS and even the GEFS show hope for us being on the right side of the boundary at least once in the next 10 days. Past that anything can happen even with Ens. Overall I'm pretty encouraged this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Cold air pressing.. a wave tracking underneath. Maybe our hail Mary period.. Almost every system and wave have trended North this season so this should be a good period for New England I would think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 23 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Did the overnight EPS hold our glimmer of hope around Feb 20th? It gets the trough out of the west and flattens the SE ridge. N-S gradient look with seasonable temps. If that general look verified it wouldn't be the worst thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 No. It looked like trash IMO. Wall to wall ridging and above normal temp anomaliesI thought it was bad compared to 12z but it's been yo yo ing. Perhaps it has 2 camps squaring away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It gets the trough out of the west and flattens the SE ridge. N-S gradient look with seasonable temps. If that general look verified it wouldn't be the worst thing. Cool only 15 days out. Looking forward to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Cool only 15 days out. Looking forward to it! With that sort of look on the mean, I am sure there is quite a bit of spread among the members. That might be a good thing. Better than continuing to see western trough/eastern ridge on the mean. Maybe some hints of change. Way out there ofc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 13 hours ago, Baltimorewx said: I think you’re a fraud. You’re literally expecting a computer to model a chaotic global atmosphere perfectly. Can you just stop, Jesus. If you don’t want to discuss long range weather and the models, then don’t come on the forum. Some of the best snowstorms were sniffed out more than 5 days out. Yep, 90% of the ensemble members gave us 1.00" liquid as snow 5 days in advance of the the FEB 5, 2010 BLIZZARD. Also, the models keep improving. A 60-84 hour forecast of 0.50" precipitation amounts are now better than 12-36 hour(day 1 forecast) from the 1990s. You're right about chaos, makes forecasting tough but also suggests some patterns are more predictable than others. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: With that sort of look on the mean, I am sure there is quite a bit of spread among the members. That might be a good thing. Better than continuing to see western trough/eastern ridge on the mean. Maybe some hints of change. Way out there ofc. I'm going to go out on a limb even though I know we can back into some fluke events in March and even early April....but I am guessing this period you are mentioning will be our last legit window for the season. It is refreshing to see some hints at regime change. But unless we get these looks under 7 days this year, it is all mere fantasy. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Haven't seen any % maps for 3" posted today. Must be meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm going to go out on a limb even though I know we can back into some fluke events in March and even early April....but I am guessing this period you are mentioning will be our last legit window for the season. It is refreshing to see some hints at regime change. But unless we get these looks under 7 days this year, it is all mere fantasy. Fingers crossed. Early April isn’t an event. It’s a nuisance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Haven't seen any % maps for 3" posted today. Must be meh? Division by zero is undefined 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Division by zero is undefined Digital snow count this year 24 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Gfs with a different look at h5 past day 5 . Doesn't have the big sw dump of energy. That would certainly help our chances. Been wondering about that period...man I hope this can be a small kink in the +AO armor...that would be a small step towards a miracle, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs with a different look at h5 past day 5 . Doesn't have the big sw dump of energy. That would certainly help our chances. Edit...just saw the 6z run . Similar not dumping into the sw next week somehow has snuck up on us as our best week of the season to see a winter storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 i like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Haven't seen any % maps for 3" posted today. Must be meh? I will look at 12z GEFS for next week when it is that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ji said: next week somehow has snuck up on us as our best week of the season to see a winter storm Not really .Have said for days that this period looks interesting. We just need that boundary in they right place. It would help my confidence if the Euro didn’t look like mid May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ji said: next week somehow has snuck up on us as our best week of the season to see a winter storm Didn't you say euro had us in the 70s and Bob could dance in his speedo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Brutal 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Didn't you say euro had us in the 70s and Bob could dance in his speedo?Yes but that was early in the week. Usually a week goes from Sunday to Saturday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Brutal GFS is cold then too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 You got to worry about these over-extended -PNA Winter's... (I said once that 90% of the world population doesn't see snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Best advertised look we have seen in ages out west. Could it be... Real? Could the ++AO be relenting? Only 15 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: If only we could get that image at the 240 hour mark instead of at 384... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 If only we could get that image at the 240 hour mark instead of at 384...Yes but that may be starting late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 23 minutes ago, UniversesBelowNormal said: You got to worry about these over-extended -PNA Winter's... (I said once that 90% of the world population doesn't see snow) LOL. Maybe brush up on geography? The vast majority of land on this planet is outside of 30 degree from the equator. People in almost all of those areas are at some point going to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, yoda said: If only we could get that image at the 240 hour mark instead of at 384... Yes but that may be starting late next week Seeing hints of good things occurring sooner rather than later on the op. As always, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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