February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, frd said:

I was referring to both the magnitude and duration of the AO. So far this season it has achieved several records in the positive phase.  Although the NAO is extremely unpredictable at short leads, as you are aware,  I have found the AO because of the nature of the domain and other related factors and drivers to be easier to forecast at long leads. Some seasonal forecasters have done a stellar job at predicting the predominant AO phase for the met winter.  Even Don S has posted many updates where he ties in the AO phase, magnitude and duration to produce possible examples of the winter weather prospects pretty far ahead in time. Also, using the vortex as a guide has been usefull as well. Early in the season it appeared most of our cold was from vortex elongations and mid to later in the season,   the strong vortex vacillation cycle  of the 20th of the month, as mentioned by HM has worked very well for colder outbreaks but of short very duration.  

I know YOU, and most, know that.  But I wouldn't want some to misinterpret your first post to mean "just look at the AO".  There are definitely some situations where the AO is the key.  This is one of them.  But then there are times the AO is less stable.  Or years like 2014/2015 where a perfect EPO can overcome a +AO.  Or more often then that...a short duration cold/snowy period during an overall warm +AO year.   No argument from me that the AO is one of the most important, if not THE most important indicators for snow here....just that its not as simple as "just look at the AO".  I wish it was.  My comments were more for the new posters that might read that and get the wrong idea.  

[cbmclean]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

And there it is 

The sequel to the BobChill storm is the PSU rainstorm.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

The sequel to the BobChill storm is the PSU rainstorm.

Im going to start predicting big rainstorms from 6 months away and then declare myself a weather god 

[psuhoffman]

July is going to be hot

[poolz1]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

July is going to be hot

Good call...every analog I see says lots of sunny days this summer.  Taking into account the "new normal" we may be in line for a whole bunch of sunny days...only time will tell.

[psuhoffman]

my perfect track rainstorm is there on the GFS again lol

[psuhoffman]

What the GFS is doing (more so at 0z but somewhat at 12z also) is a good example of why shorter wavelengths in March can create fluke events.  That said...this exact result is still unlikely, and even if we do get a system to track under us I am on the record saying its going to be rain...that is simply the best way to end this season with the most possible damage and pain possible.  

But this is a perfect illustration of how March can create weird solutions.

This looks so familiar...same setup for the whole winter...with the crap pac setting up a trough west ridge east configuration and no blocking up top to help force a system under us.  

But despite the same look up top and in the pac the shorter wavelengths make it POSSIBLE, not likely but physically possible, for a system to track under us.  The first wave slides into a 50/50 position which is still critical, and likely an error because if that first wave ends up anywhere else or at any other time...the whole thing doesn't work.  But even if we had that perfect timing in January this would never work.  Look at the short spacing between waves which makes this whole thing even physically possible.  During mid winter that look in the pac would drive a super ridge into the east and its game over no matter where that first wave goes.  

The possibility of tight spacing and systems to cut off because of it creates the chaos we need to even have a chance at a fluke in such a hostile pacific base state.  It's still unlikely anything works out...it would take a lot of luck with multiple moving parts, but its physically possible.  

[frd]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I know YOU, and most, know that.  But I wouldn't want some to misinterpret your first post to mean "just look at the AO".  There are definitely some situations where the AO is the key.  This is one of them.  But then there are times the AO is less stable.  Or years like 2014/2015 where a perfect EPO can overcome a +AO.  Or more often then that...a short duration cold/snowy period during an overall warm +AO year.   No argument from me that the AO is one of the most important, if not THE most important indicators for snow here....just that its not as simple as "just look at the AO".  I wish it was.  My comments were more for the new posters that might read that and get the wrong idea.  

 

Check this out. Even a month out the vortex remains resilient and above ERA-Interim climo. And at times very strong as well. Very remarkable given we enter March  in less than one week. 

Wonder the implications if and when we flip to a - NAM state. Also thinking about the implications for hurricane season with those warm Atlantic SSTs and maybe, just maybe,  a cooler summer up North and then a lagged solar min and a more firmly established - QBO combine to drive a colder winter next year. Hey, total speculation but as Bob stated and Tom as well, we are due for a flip from the + extremes and Tom is looking for  - NAO phases to manifest more so in the next few years.   

 

 

 

Pretty cool 

 

 

 

[frd]

 

Ugly just ugly  !!!!

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I know YOU, and most, know that.  But I wouldn't want some to misinterpret your first post to mean "just look at the AO".  There are definitely some situations where the AO is the key.  This is one of them.  But then there are times the AO is less stable.  Or years like 2014/2015 where a perfect EPO can overcome a +AO.  Or more often then that...a short duration cold/snowy period during an overall warm +AO year.   No argument from me that the AO is one of the most important, if not THE most important indicators for snow here....just that its not as simple as "just look at the AO".  I wish it was.  My comments were more for the new posters that might read that and get the wrong idea.  

you can get snow with bad AO as you said but something has to be good. Usually a postive AO yields a positve NAO but you can still get a good -EPO. If not...maybe a PNA but none of the cold is going to last and you probably have a cold/dry. But you cant have them all bad and thats what we had this year. If we have one indicie..were at least in the game

[midatlanticweather]

42 minutes ago, Ji said:

you can get snow with bad AO as you said but something has to be good. Usually a postive AO yields a positve NAO but you can still get a good -EPO. If not...maybe a PNA but none of the cold is going to last and you probably have a cold/dry. But you cant have them all bad and thats what we had this year. If we have one indicie..were at least in the game

Only in NC!

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

my perfect track rainstorm is there on the GFS again lol

Start a thread post haste!!  Maybe even a radio show! 

(Yeah, I used the term "post haste"!!)

[WinterWxLuvr]

How’s the half inch of powder for Friday night looking? 

[psuhoffman]

So this is super low odds, in a good year it wouldn't even be worth mentioning it...but the scenario the GFS has shown a few times now centered around day 12 is showing up on some other guidance also.  The euro control gets a couple waves through the area around then with a somewhat similar evolution, getting an initial wave up into the 50/50 area and then pinwheeling something into the east behind it.  There are several members of the GEFS and EPS that do the same.  I suppose its just enough to say its possible and not completely crazy.   There seems to be some hints that perhaps there is some opportunity for something around March 7-10th.  

[Scraff]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So this is super low odds, in a good year it wouldn't even be worth mentioning it...but the scenario the GFS has shown a few times now centered around day 12 is showing up on some other guidance also.  The euro control gets a couple waves through the area around then with a somewhat similar evolution, getting an initial wave up into the 50/50 area and then pinwheeling something into the east behind it.  There are several members of the GEFS and EPS that do the same.  I suppose its just enough to say its possible and not completely crazy.   There seems to be some hints that perhaps there is some opportunity for something around March 7-10th.  

Wondering how people would grade / rate this winter if we got a crusher in that March 7-10 window. I personally would go from an F to C-. My parents would be so proud, yet they aren’t holding their breath. They know I’ve been struggling in this class all winter. The tutor didn’t even help. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Wondering how people would grade / rate this winter if we got a crusher in that March 7-10 window. I personally would go from an F to C-. My parents would be so proud, yet they aren’t holding their breath. They know I’ve been struggling in this class all winter. The tutor didn’t even help. 

It won’t undo the misery of this dreadful winter...and I don’t know what the score changes too, depends on how much and how long the snow lasts I guess...but a snowstorm would make me happy and I would enjoy that day and that’s all that matters to me.  The past is done. I can’t change it. 

[North Balti Zen]

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Wondering how people would grade / rate this winter if we got a crusher in that March 7-10 window. I personally would go from an F to C-. My parents would be so proud, yet they aren’t holding their breath. They know I’ve been struggling in this class all winter. The tutor didn’t even help. 

Still an F.

[stormtracker]

36 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Wondering how people would grade / rate this winter if we got a crusher in that March 7-10 window. I personally would go from an F to C-. My parents would be so proud, yet they aren’t holding their breath. They know I’ve been struggling in this class all winter. The tutor didn’t even help. 

There would need to be a Feb 2010 repeat PLUS  superstorm of 93 to get this winter to an A.  

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Followed by a April 1982 repeat also 

Now you're doing too much.  If you add that in there too, we're talking legendary.  Our hearts can only handle so much.  

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Followed by a April 1982 repeat also 

Why would we care about an April 82 repeat?

[CAPE]

Since none of the above will ever happen, an F it will remain.

[Amped]

Just hope for Fridays surprise snow squall gives us our 20 to 30.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Mersky said:

6-12” of snow fell at my location with temps in the 20’s. 

Exactly so maybe you should talk about it in that region. What’s next...talk about a Boxing Day repeat?...another March 2001?  Oh maybe a December 2000 too?  I wouldn’t bring up Feb 5 2010 in the NYC sub. 

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

So this is super low odds, in a good year it wouldn't even be worth mentioning it...but the scenario the GFS has shown a few times now centered around day 12 is showing up on some other guidance also.  The euro control gets a couple waves through the area around then with a somewhat similar evolution, getting an initial wave up into the 50/50 area and then pinwheeling something into the east behind it.  There are several members of the GEFS and EPS that do the same.  I suppose its just enough to say its possible and not completely crazy.   There seems to be some hints that perhaps there is some opportunity for something around March 7-10th.  

10 percent of 12z EPS members look good for this time period.... two weeks to see if that improves.  Maps if we hit 30 percent or more.

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Exactly so maybe you should talk about it in that region. What’s next...talk about a Boxing Day repeat?...another March 2001?  Oh maybe a December 2000 too?  I wouldn’t bring up Feb 5 2010 in the NYC sub. 

Heeee's baaaack.

Sort of eased into it with the  likes. Full on shit posting again now tho.

[Ji]

I'm at peace with this winter now. All we can do is laugh. And we can still get good snow even in late march but whatever happens it was enjoyable to learn lot of new concepts

 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

This winter has been so bad...("How bad was it??" yells the crowd!)...it's been so bad that we even get a leap day this February just to add one more day this month that it won't snow!!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Exactly so maybe you should talk about it in that region. What’s next...talk about a Boxing Day repeat?...another March 2001?  Oh maybe a December 2000 too?  I wouldn’t bring up Feb 5 2010 in the NYC sub. 

Well, to be fair, I myself also look back fondly at April 1982 and that winter in general (I'm assuming you mean Apr. 5-6 that year).  But that's from the perspective of northeast Ohio, not NYC, and nowhere near this place.  KCLE got ~12".  That was a great storm in the midwest, and I honestly at the time had no idea what it might have done outside there.  Plus, it's the storm that put KCLE over the top for snowiest winter on record there at the time (it's since been broken), by a good margin thanks to that event.

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well, to be fair, I myself also look back fondly at April 1982 and that winter in general (I'm assuming you mean Apr. 5-6 that year).  But that's from the perspective of northeast Ohio, not NYC, and nowhere near this place.  KCLE got ~12".  That was a great storm in the midwest, and I honestly at the time had no idea what it might have done outside there.  Plus, it's the storm that put KCLE over the top for snowiest winter on record there at the time (it's since been broken), by a good margin thanks to that event.

And to be fair your posts aren’t 99% crap and you don’t go from sub to sub picking fights so you would likely get way more leeway. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Mersky said:

You are grouchy everyday so this is nothing new for you 

It’s bitter, at least get it right.