CAPE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 ^I should have made that my profile photo a month ago. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 7:02 PM, C.A.P.E. said: ^I should have made that my profile photo a month ago.We are getting an easy snow storm around March 20th 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 7:00 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Expand Fixed 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 7:16 PM, Ji said: On 2/22/2020 at 7:02 PM, C.A.P.E. said: ^I should have made that my profile photo a month ago. Expand We are getting an easy snow storm around March 20th Expand What’s going to happen is late March the PV breaks down and blocking sets up but because it’s late March and the mid latitudes are torched by the antecedent pattern we will get a perfect track slow moving coastal 960 bomb that stalls just east of OC and dumps 3” of rain at 37 degrees and mixes with slush bombs at times just to tease us even more. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 8:11 PM, psuhoffman said: What’s going to happen is late March the PV breaks down and blocking sets up but because it’s late March and the mid latitudes are torched by the antecedent pattern we will get a perfect track slow moving coastal 960 bomb that stalls just east of OC and dumps 3” of rain at 37 degrees and mixes with slush bombs at times just to tease us even more. If it can happen by mid march we can still score but there is nothing suggesting this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 8:17 PM, Ji said: On 2/22/2020 at 8:11 PM, psuhoffman said: What’s going to happen is late March the PV breaks down and blocking sets up but because it’s late March and the mid latitudes are torched by the antecedent pattern we will get a perfect track slow moving coastal 960 bomb that stalls just east of OC and dumps 3” of rain at 37 degrees and mixes with slush bombs at times just to tease us even more. Expand If it can happen by mid march we can still score but there is nothing suggesting this Expand It’s going to happen a day too late. You know it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 8:11 PM, psuhoffman said: What’s going to happen is late March the PV breaks down and blocking sets up but because it’s late March and the mid latitudes are torched by the antecedent pattern we will get a perfect track slow moving coastal 960 bomb that stalls just east of OC and dumps 3” of rain at 37 degrees and mixes with slush bombs at times just to tease us even more. Expand March 29, 1984. Of course the "snow mixed in with rain before ending" in the official forecast turned into 7" of the wettest snow I remember. I broke two hickory handle shovels digging out the bottom of the lane where the plow pushed up a crazy wall of slush and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Looks like next weekend coastal N.C. might score again! Salt squarely in the wound! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 1:42 AM, StantonParkHoya said: Looks like next weekend coastal N.C. might score again! Salt squarely in the wound! Expand ECG beats IAD, BWI and DCA. Well that’s a fine kettle of fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 1:48 AM, BristowWx said: ECG beats IAD, BWI and DCA. Well that’s a fine kettle of fish. Expand I bet it happens historically more than you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 All my Hope's and dreams lies in this shortwave in Montana lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Congrats dc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 12:29 AM, CentralVaNATS said: What a bunchh of baloney. Man go pound sand or thorns in TX Expand I am pounding sand and thorns in Texas, but I still believe in snow hitting DC this season. There is still time. I have seen stranger winter weather in the 50 or so years I used to live there, lol. I know its a bad pattern, but there is still time. About those thorns, they have trees down here with 4 inch thorns on the branches! I had to remove some! Man was that entertaining! LOL Quote Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 WB 0Z EPS Control Day 13, March 6-7...placing all my remaining chips on the roulette wheel...only a weak EPS signal in the Day 9-15 period, about 10 percent heavy hitters. Enough for me to keep looking at the model runs for any trendsetters in the last three weeks or so of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Hmmmm.... Relax that suppression in the NE.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 10:45 AM, losetoa6 said: ^ Yea ...there's a bit of signal within the Eps envelope to cut off energy behind the mid week storm around day 7 to 8 ish . Something to watch . Bring it home Showme Expand Going to be up at Mohegan Sun Pocono during that period. Probably would need a lot more help up there then down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 WB 6z GEFS thru Day 16, nothing through this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 10:13 AM, showmethesnow said: Hmmmm.... Relax that suppression in the NE.... Expand You already know how this ends up lol. We will, however, have our third straight cold/dry weekend following another mild week. Rinse and repeat, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 11:35 AM, C.A.P.E. said: You already know how this ends up lol. We will, however, have our third straight cold/dry weekend following another mild week. Rinse and repeat, Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 11:38 AM, showmethesnow said: Expand Just doin' my job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 On 2/22/2020 at 8:40 PM, psuhoffman said: It’s going to happen a day too late. You know it. Expand Let's not forget about the 20 degree temperature plunge just as the precip moves off shore and out to sea. Followed by partly cloudy and windy with blowing and drifting trash here in the streets of Essex. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 The CFS is not a reliable model. I think we all know that by now. Never place any confidence in the forecast for the next month until we get to the very end of the current month we are in and even then it is not very useful. It was portraying a very cold March but as Don mentions it is slowly doing what it has done every month so far this winter which is turn warmer . Simply focus on the AO and the NAO state and you will have a much better idea about any winter weather potential in our area. From Don S update a short while ago << Morning thoughts... 1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°. 2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°. 3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong. 4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region. The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 2:11 PM, frd said: The CFS is not a reliable model. I think we all know that by now. Never place any confidence in the forecast for the next month until we get to the very end of the current month we are in and even then it is not very useful. It was portraying a very cold March but as Don mentions it is slowly doing what it has done every month so far this winter which is turn warmer . Simply focus on the AO and the NAO state and you will have a much better idea about any winter weather potential in our area. From Don S update a short while ago << Morning thoughts... 1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°. 2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°. 3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong. 4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region. The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region. Expand The only time I even look at the CFS is when it came up in discussion. It’s useless. But simply using the AO isn’t going to work past a week since the current AO doesn’t have much predictability past a few days. It can flip quickly sometimes. Now certain patterns that create stable feedback loops like the current pac/AO combo can suggest persistence. But simply using the AO value to predict the next week/month is risky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 CFS did get the AO/NAO right. It was persistently showing blue up top leading into winter, and continued that look. It failed miserably with the EPO. Even after the Pac pattern emerged and became stable, the CFS kept insisting on a big EPO ridge delivering cross polar flow, with a trough in the east. It has been playing catch up over the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 2:42 PM, C.A.P.E. said: CFS did get the AO/NAO right. It was persistently showing blue up top leading into winter, and continued that look. It failed miserably with the EPO. Even after the Pac pattern emerged and became stable, the CFS kept insisting on a big EPO ridge delivering cross polar flow, with a trough in the east. It has been playing catch up over the last month. Expand Yea I nailed that the sun would come up this morning...everything else is details. I’m being a smart ass of course and you’re right but in my experience the cfs gets the whole picture correct so infrequently, and is so god awful with major pattern drivers like the mjo, that it’s useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 So the obvious issues of the pac and AO have been covered...but there are transient troughs making it into the east now due to shortening wavelengths and that’s our “fluke chance”. But another issue muting those odds is that the next 2 troughs (on guidance at least) amplify and stall to our north and do not progress east. It’s much harder to get a follow up system to amplify under a system than behind it. It’s not leaving enough space. Then when the trough lifts it does so quickly and to the north instead of a progressing east which also limits the chance of a WAA wave on the tail of any cold shot. That progression is the fabled warm wet cold dry we love so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Hints of the tpv breaking down at the end of the gfs. Just in time for our 37 degree epic perfect track phased bomb rainstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 5:42 PM, losetoa6 said: Your 960s bomb showed up on the Gfs around 300 hr except it wasn't off OC lol Expand No we will get 2-3 teases where it is cold enough but storms track just to our west as the pattern transitions. Then exactly when it’s simply too late to work we will get the totally perfect coastal bomb that would have been 50” if it was one week sooner but will just be rain mixed with just enough slush bombs to make it hurt more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 I’ve never been more sure of anything. The one thing we are great at is epic fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 6:00 PM, psuhoffman said: I’ve never been more sure of anything. The one thing we are great at is epic fail. Expand And AN temps. We over perform. Can’t forget that. I bet 80% of the CPC 6-10 or 8-14 day outlooks are orange hue at any given time over our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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