CAPE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 7 hours ago, cbmclean said: Wow, I have a hard time believing that is the same Jebman By the way, didn't the cold and moisture finally line up for you guys later in February? Yes mid month and into March was a great period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 28 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Long range looks like crap. About the only thing I see is around day 10 or so if we can get a system in quickly enough before the 500's/trough pull out of the NE allowing ridging to take over. EPS is probably the friendliest look at this time for that possibility. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: I am in the 10-20% range. Yeah!??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Just now, showmethesnow said: I am in the 10-20% range. Yeah!??? At least the GFS op has teased with a potential hail mary event on recent runs. Yesterday it looked like maybe around the 5th. The 6z run now has one on the 9th. Clipper incoming at hour 384! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: At least the GFS op has teased with a potential hail mary event on recent runs. Yesterday it looked like maybe around the 5th. The 6z run now has one on the 9th. Clipper incoming at hour 384! Yeah, I almost posted this one yesterday from the 18Z yesterday. I would give the winter a solid C if we had this verify over the next 2 weeks. But it won't and I won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I am in the 10-20% range. Yeah!??? I've been in that range or better on every one of those maps this entire winter and the result has been a whopping 9" and most of that came in Nov. and early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Do you feel better now?Much better. At least it gave you guys something to talk about besides the next 10 days when the pattern fails to materialize, again. Move on to springSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Probably. He’s an absolutely terrible poster .Ahhhhh... Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: The Panic Room has seen some legit classics. The panic room IS a classic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The panic room IS a classic Open year round but half off during winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Oh...boy What model is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 hour ago, CentralVaNATS said: Much better. At least it gave you guys something to talk about besides the next 10 days when the pattern fails to materialize, again. Move on to spring Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Good. Obviously the rest of us were put on this earth just to make you feel better...so that’s all that matters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Hey! I'm on the + side of 50% lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html Thanks...Now I'll waste the 2 hours! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 29 minutes ago, poolz1 said: What model is that? 1993 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 42 minutes ago, poolz1 said: What model is that? The super storm model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Good. Obviously the rest of us were put on this earth just to make you feel better...so that’s all that matters. Its good to find a purpose in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: Thanks...Now I'll waste the 2 hours! That's interesting, I don;t think I have ever heard of a TRIPLE phase. So there's the SS, NS and what's the third stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: That's interesting, I don;t think I have ever heard of a TRIPLE phase. So there's the SS, NS and what's the third stream? Polar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 34 minutes ago, George BM said: You know, it is very frustrating that the second half of December was mostly negative, but it was completely ruined by the AK vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 I'm also really curious what driving force the seasonal dynamic models were seeing to make their +AO/NAO predictions. On a larger note, a few years ago I saw some speculation that AGW would lead to a weaker polar jet thus more -NAO/AO episodes. The idea was that the strength of the polar jet is strongly affected by the latitudinal temperature gradient. As that gradient goes down with polar warming, the mean strength of the polar jet would also go down. It made sense to me. But obviously it didn't work out that way this year. Perhaps there is another forcing which is overwhelming it (maritime continent warm pool perhaps) or maybe it was just pure random chance. But the fact that the seasonal models picked up on it implies there is a non-random forcing element involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 34 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I'm also really curious what driving force the seasonal dynamic models were seeing to make their +AO/NAO predictions. On a larger note, a few years ago I saw some speculation that AGW would lead to a weaker polar jet thus more -NAO/AO episodes. The idea was that the strength of the polar jet is strongly affected by the latitudinal temperature gradient. As that gradient goes down with polar warming, the mean strength of the polar jet would also go down. It made sense to me. But obviously it didn't work out that way this year. Perhaps there is another forcing which is overwhelming it (maritime continent warm pool perhaps) or maybe it was just pure random chance. But the fact that the seasonal models picked up on it implies there is a non-random forcing element involved. There is a correlation between tropical forcing, glamm, gwo and the high latitudes. So my guess is they correctly saw those hostile base states. Even ignoring the angular momentum stuff had you shown me the plot of what the mjo was going to do from Xmas to March back in the fall I would have predicted a dumpster fire then instead of waiting until late December to realize we were fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: gwo Just started learning about GLAAM. What is GWO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Just started learning about GLAAM. What is GWO? I found it: Global Wind Oscillation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 there will be some cold air around at times after this storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 39 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I found it: Global Wind Oscillation. I thought it was the Global Warming Oscillation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 there will be some cold air around at times after this storm next weekSigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Just got around to checking last night's EPS. New seasonal low for snow fall mean of 0.2" for College Park. I suspect the low values may have more to do with March climatology than any worsening in our already dire outlook. Maryland had a home baseball game yesterday afternoon. Getting close to give up time for us snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ji said: there will be some cold air around at times after this storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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