JakkelWx Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: A +NAO and a 50/50 high with an amplified upper trough to our west is a disaster. Anyone want to explain to me how this look is full of potential? How could it possibly track underneath? Unless/until I see lower heights showing up off the Canadian maritimes on approach, this is a goner. It's on to March. Except both the GEFS and the EPS now have a western US trough and a SE ridge lol. What I meant to say was..it's on to Spring. We basically wasted our last chance for snow here to the south today if that's the case.. anyways, I'm looking forward to warm temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Maybe we all can chip in and buy a weenie cabin out near Canaan or something? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: If 300-400 miles south of us can score in this horrible pattern, we certainly could have. Yea it’s “possible” but one threat in 7 weeks hitting one location isn’t good odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Carolinas got snow with a severe positive ao and naoWhy know so little lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Maybe we all can chip in and buy a weenie cabin out near Canaan or something? I could see telling friends and family I was headed to a weenie cabin in the mountains. There might be questions 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 55 minutes ago, Ji said: Carolinas got snow with a severe positive ao and nao Why know so little lol I am assuming you meant "We know so little"? I think we know quite a bit. We know that snow is extremely hard to come by in a pattern like this, but obviously not impossible. My area just got lucky today, that is all. I feel grateful and a bit refreshed. Still looking forward to next year (unless its a nina). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrb129 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Man if I was single...I'd be living in fort kent.. can you imagine a place where cutters can give you snow lolMy Dad has a cabin just outside Fort Kent...its amazing if you love snow and winter. I believe he's on his third or fourth roof snow removal already.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 My Dad has a cabin just outside Fort Kent...its amazing if you love snow and winter. I believe he's on his third or fourth roof snow removal already.Sent from my SM-N950U using TapatalkMan..250k for this and unlimited winter https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/149-E-Main-St-Fort-Kent-ME-04743/122993740_zpid/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Man..250k for this and unlimited winter https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/149-E-Main-St-Fort-Kent-ME-04743/122993740_zpid/ I'm sure Will and Stacy will give you a nice discount 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 I'm sure Will and Stacy will give you a nice discountLol is that their house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 every horrible storm track ends up being a fort kent blizzard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 https://www.onlyinyourstate.com/maine/snowiest-town-me/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ji said: Man..250k for this and unlimited winter https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/149-E-Main-St-Fort-Kent-ME-04743/122993740_zpid/ Dream come true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: What do you mean NAM range? We haven't even gotten anything into the range where the op runs of the Globals become somewhat useful. Now to be fair, I think we may have gotten into CFS range a time or two back in late December or early January. But otherwise, yeah, not so much!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 I think from here on...no winter outlooks until December. Just don't do it, lol Don't even bother (unless it's a mod nino or something) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I think from here on...no winter outlooks until December. Just don't do it, lol Don't even bother (unless it's a mod nino or something) Wouldn't be prudent...at this juncture! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Wonder if we can get some storms late next week looking at the 00z GFS SLP track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 I'll be happy with a 20" fantasy storm at 240hrs that doesn't verify at this point. Most winters we can at least get that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 I'll be happy with a 20" fantasy storm at 240hrs that doesn't verify at this point. Most winters we can at least get that.Weve gotten less digital snow than real snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 You cant make this up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, Chris78 said: You cant make this up Why are you guys torturing yourself with these snow maps? I mean, mercy...a snow map240 hrs out? What in the world does that even mean in any kind of season--let alone one like this one? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why are you guys torturing yourself with these snow maps? I mean, mercy...a snow map240 hrs out? What in the world does that even mean in any kind of season--let alone one like this one? Lol No torturing going on here. I made my piece with this awful winter weeks ago. It is what it is and we probably are done till December. Sure we could fluke into something but chances are low. It was the south easts turn to get the fluke. I just thought the map was funny. North south east and west of us gets snow and our small area gets zippo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 The follow up wave next week is close to dead. The problem is the lead wave misses the phase with the NS. The NS wave slides by to the north ahead of it and leaves it behind. Without that phase the lead wave sits, weakens, and dies without pulling cold in behind it so the next wave will amplify to our west and north where the boundary will be. That change is only 3-4 days out so the fact all guidance went that way makes it very reliable imo. Even if the storm we were watching is still 5-6 days out the dominoes that will determine its fate start falling the wrong way at only day 3 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hey....that's a dusting here . Don't worry ...it will snow again...that's all that you have to know . If a weather hobby is torture then .....maby...well you get the idea . Yeah this is just an extreme case of a locked in bad MA snow pattern. We were just unlucky. It will snow again someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Yawn. This h5 look is as bad as we have seen all winter. Lets just hope we don't get our seasonal flip to a -NAO until June, where the only damage it can do is make things warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yawn. This h5 look is as bad as we have seen all winter. Lets just hope we don't get our seasonal flip to a -NAO until June, where the only damage it can do is make things warmer. Stick a fork in this winter. The pig to the north keeps restrengthing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yawn. This h5 look is as bad as we have seen all winter. Lets just hope we don't get our seasonal flip to a -NAO until June, where the only damage it can do is make things warmer. Lol. Talk everything in the wrong spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol. Talk everything in the wrong spots. I reversed all the colors on the map. Looks perfect now. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 50 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: awn. This h5 look is as bad as we have seen all winter. Lets just hope we don't get our seasonal flip to a -NAO until June, where the only damage it can do is make things warmer. Are you surprised ? What you posted goes along nicely with this graph below. The message from following the AO this season along with the overall NAM state has never been to expect any real significant snow threats. Combine that with the winter's positive NAO and a negative PNA for months you get more assurance that snow is a no go. Maybe if we ramp up the Atlantic SSTs off the Jersey and VA coasts to 83 to 85 degrees F. by late August we get a real cat 5 opportunity this season to a very high latitude. Also, last year in late August, I believe, we achieved a very deep -NAO and it contributed to a very cool air mass for the time of year. So a -NAO in June , July and early August would not be a cool factor for our area but if the NAO goes deep enough in later August we can get a cooler air mass to invade the area. I recall ,as bluewave posted about it, talking about that very anomalous -NAO event. I also believe it occurred towards the end of the long lasting record - NAO cycle that lasted for weeks on end. Now we have gone the other way with the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 minute ago, frd said: Are you surprised ? What you posted goes along nicely with this graph below. The message from following the AO this season along with the overall NAM state has never been to expect any real significant snow threats. Combine that with the winter's positive NAO and a negative PNA for months you get more assurance that snow is a no go. Maybe if we ramp up the Atlantic SSTs off the Jersey and VA coasts to 83 to 85 degrees F. by late August we get a real cat 5 opportunity this season to a very high latitude. Also, last year in late August, I believe, we achieved a very deep -NAO and it contributed to a very cool air mass for the time of year. So a -NAO in June , July and early August would not be a cool factor for our area but if the NAO goes deep enough in later August we can get a cooler air mass to invade the area. I recall ,as bluewave posted about it, talking about that very anomalous -NAO event. I also believe it occurred towards the end of the long lasting record - NAO cycle that lasted for weeks on end. Now we have gone the other way with the NAO. Not at all. All guidance has been heading this way for days now. I don't think anyone here is surprised. I just think its fitting if it ends this way. There was really never any tangible reason to believe the pattern would be notably different going forward, outside of shorter wavelengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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