Weather Will Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ji said: 41 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12z EPS thru Day 15. No changes. Nada. Not true at all...uptick in snow in southern and central va day 14 and 15 Isn’t most of that for the late week NC storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Yea.. it was a significant change at h5 even from it's own 12z run . I see flakes wayy up here Let's see what GFS does this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I can hear @Ji already - too far north for a Southern Slider.. the consistency of something in NC southern VA definitely seems like a legit possibility in that region. This winter is painful. If this works out, I would be shocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 GFS looks a tad sharper at hour 60. Similar to the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 improvements on the GFS....babysteps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: improvements on the GFS....babysteps? Not as sharp/far west as the ICON at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: improvements on the GFS....babysteps? Yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Not as sharp/far west as the ICON at hour 72. Better though, there is a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 not gonna cut it this run but a step in the right direction no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 GFS is ever so slightly better. Probably noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I just don’t see it for the DMV except SE VA. Watch the EURO. If it changes, I will start believing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: I just don’t see it for the DMV except SE VA. Watch the EURO. If it changes, I will start believing. At this point the high bar is some light, insignificant snow from DC to Dover on the northern fringe. The max would be 1-3 inches down in NC to perhaps SE VA. This will not be much of a storm until offshore of the SE in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowchaser said: Does anyone remember the snowstorm back in early December 2018? No 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: No Not here. Dec 2017 we had a decent little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowchaser said: Does anyone remember the snowstorm back in early December 2018? Imo I see some similarities with this one NAM 18z Yes, precip was expansive but as it moved north it hit a wall just south of DC. I think flurries made it to about Mt Vernon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If only you posted this in early Dec you would have been spot-on for majority of the winter. I knew by New Years we were pretty screwed. But in the fall I had hope. Thing is...shift the pac forcing just a few degrees east and get the AO less positive and it’s suddenly not so awful. But when I saw where the pac ridge was setting up and the AO going crazy stupid positive it was game over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: December 2018 was when that lobe of the PV dropped down at the worst possible time setting up some serious confluence over DC on north . It literally was a brick wall. Me thinks he is trolling. And if he thinks the potential late week 'event' bears any resemblance to that ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: December 2018 was when that lobe of the PV dropped down at the worst possible time setting up some serious confluence over DC on north . It literally was a brick wall. Man that one still kinda hurts...lol That turned out to be the only shot at a foot we've had since 2016 (barring a March miracle this year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Me thinks he is trolling. And if he thinks the potential late week 'event' bears any resemblance to that ... You know, maybe if I drink a 12 pack and I squint my eyes then look at it cross eyed I can see a possibility. No, no that isn't working. In all seriousness it is nice to see the SW flow that is produced by a little deeper dig instead of the westerly flow. Better able to get moisture to over flow the cold air in place. But we really need to see less suppression in front of that wave otherwise the moisture is going to only come so far north. eta: talking about the ICON, not that I particularly believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Man that one still kinda hurts...lol That turned out to be the only shot at a foot we've had since 2016 (barring a March miracle this year) You think that one hurts? You should have been here (maybe you were?) for the infamous "Storm Which Shall Not Be Named" in December 2010 (ahem...Boxing Day, oops, I said it!). I think that's what started @Bob Chill and many others harming bunnies and other cute furry animals of varying types when things go wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, showmethesnow said: You know, maybe if I drink a 12 pack and I squint my eyes then look at it cross eyed I can see a possibility. No, no that isn't working. In all seriousness it is nice to see the SW flow that is produced by a little deeper dig instead of the westerly flow. Better able to get moisture to over flow the cold air in place. But we really need to see less suppression in front of that wave otherwise the moisture is going to only come so far north. LOL. That 2018 storm was a true southern slider, and that's about the only similarity to what may happen later this week. That storm featured a juiced up wave moving into a much colder air mass with legit suppression, versus this weak strung out pos in a flat, progressive flow. That storm produced 10-15" of cold powder in central NC. At best this storm will produce a few sloppy inches in those areas. And yeah it is a long shot for our region, but still far enough out to monitor given some recent runs sharpening that vort. At best we are probably talking a period of light snow, maybe a coating, but we got little else to track in the next week to 10 days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 32 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: You think that one hurts? You should have been here (maybe you were?) for the infamous "Storm Which Shall Not Be Named" in December 2010 (ahem...Boxing Day, oops, I said it!). I think that's what started @Bob Chill and many others harming bunnies and other cute furry animals of varying types when things go wrong! Yeah that one kinda hurt too...but it wasn't as bad for me that time because I wasn't following this site or the weather models back then (so I didn't know exactly what was being shown a few days prior). But now...that one is my Exhibit A for...NEVER TRUST A NINA. Those winters will break your heart everytime (don't count 1996--that may have been once in a lifetime, lol). Next time we get one, I don't even think I'll bother much with tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I knew by New Years we were pretty screwed. But in the fall I had hope. Thing is...shift the pac forcing just a few degrees east and get the AO less positive and it’s suddenly not so awful. But when I saw where the pac ridge was setting up and the AO going crazy stupid positive it was game over. Sucks to just completely lose a year like this. Perhaps the AO/NAO base state will become less unfriendly soon in the next couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Solution Man said: Good for them! Did some one call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 WB 18z GEFS...hits are not this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18z GEFS...hits are not this week. I see 10 right off the bat that are 100% believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is why the ICON looks good at the surface, and what I mentioned in my post above. This is the feature to watch. Yea that’s the key. I posted that loop showing how the op gfs was trending better with that a day or so ago and it promptly went the other way the next few runs. It would take a lot of work to fix that flow. But I’m sure there will be one run that looks good just to make it hurt more when it fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea that’s the key. I posted that loop showing how the op gfs was trending better with that a day or so ago and it promptly went the other way the next few runs. It would take a lot of work to fix that flow. But I’m sure there will be one run that looks good just to make it hurt more when it fails. Yeah we are in the range now where we are not likely to see big changes. Looks like a pretty weak wave that will get kicked out without doing much damage, even for places further south. If I had to guess now I would say an inch or 2 for central/eastern NC would be the max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18z GEFS...hits are not this week. LOL, what hits are you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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