CAPE Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Euro has been depicting some possible snow showers with a piece of UL energy dropping in behind the initial cold front on late Thursday. I mentioned it in this thread yesterday. Looks a bit more impressive on today's run. Something to keep an eye on. Loseto6 and I were discussing it in the other thread. Not sure where it belongs, if it even ends up becoming a thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Euro has been depicting some possible snow showers with a piece of UL energy dropping in behind the initial cold front on late Thursday. I mentioned it in this thread yesterday. Looks a bit more impressive on today's run. Something to keep an eye on. Loseto6 and I were discussing it in the other thread. Not sure where it belongs, if it even ends up becoming a thing. Wow I’ll enjoy my .01 of flurries and like it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Wow I’ll enjoy my .01 of flurries and like it What else we got? Could end up being 1-2 for someone. Who knows. Either way, I hope you get bupkis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: What else we got? Could end up being 1-2 for someone. Who knows. Either way, I hope you get bupkis. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 37 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Wow I’ll enjoy my .01 of flurries and like it We get screwed with only .005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 40 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro quicker ejecting the S. Cal bowling ball this run . If we could get that ns to dive in more south and setup some better confluence we could have a shot at something wintery . My guess is that's an error and the GFS/CMC are correct. Could be a decent tornado outbreak along the gulf coast if it does verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 WB 12Z EPS continues to show pattern changes toward end of February/ early March. No strong signals for any snow yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Don’t worry JB has a new analog. 1960. No shame...lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t worry JB has a new analog. 1960. No shame...lol Saw that. In fairness to him though, has admitted the WB temp forecast for winter was wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: What else we got? Could end up being 1-2 for someone. Who knows. Either way, I hope you get bupkis. 1-2 flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Simply must laugh at the touted pattern change for early March that has been offered up since early Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Simply must laugh at the touted pattern change for early March that has been offered up since early Jan.There has been no pattern change offered at all by any models since January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Saw that. In fairness to him though, has admitted the WB temp forecast for winter was wrong.. Yea so he immediately moved on to the next ridiculous BS nonsense that he knows has next to no chance to verify. You would think he would at least try to tone it down for 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, Ji said: 37 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Simply must laugh at the touted pattern change for early March that has been offered up since early Jan. There has been no pattern change offered at all by any models since January He has a script and will stick to it regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Euro has been depicting some possible snow showers with a piece of UL energy dropping in behind the initial cold front on late Thursday. I mentioned it in this thread yesterday. Looks a bit more impressive on today's run. Something to keep an eye on. Loseto6 and I were discussing it in the other thread. Not sure where it belongs, if it even ends up becoming a thing. If a dusting of snow is "more impressive" I would hate to have seen previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Setting up for cold, rainy April and May. The "March pattern change" will be delayed and not take effect until later in the month when it's too late for meaningful snow, unless you are @losetoa6 and track chances for ice pellets at 5 AM every day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 My spring forecast is days and days of overcast, temps upper 40s to 50s, and rain. So much rain. NAO will be very negative during this time. Enjoy! Oh and wind. Can't forget wind. It will blow non-stop from the north. 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: My spring forecast is days and days of overcast, temps upper 40s to 50s, and rain. So much rain. NAO will be very negative during this time. Enjoy! Oh and wind. Can't forget wind. It will blow non-stop from the north. It will be salt in the wounds if we got the pattern we needed too late...but the fear spring gets ruined by a -NAO is always overblown. A -NAO can certainly make March chilly but by the time we get to April there is no way we’re getting more than a rare day or two that’s actually cold. It won’t rain everyday...and when it’s Sunny it’s almost guaranteed to at least be ~50 degrees. It will just delay summer like temps until May/June instead of years where we jump right to upper 70s and 80s in April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If a dusting of snow is "more impressive" I would hate to have seen previous runs. We Talkin' bout snow showers. Not snowpocalypse II. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He has a script and will stick to it regardless We realize you have to personalize a response when no one spoke to you directly. Reminds me of the Pied Piper JoeB or WxRisk days where those guys felt omnipotent my script is the factual outcomes while you chase 15+ day fantasy pattern changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS continues to show pattern changes toward end of February/ early March. No strong signals for any snow yet. Blocking looks transient. That means the cold shot will be also. Doesn't even look like much of it gets into the NAO or AO domain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Blocking looks transient. That means the cold shot will be also. Doesn't even look like much of it gets into the NAO or AO domain. It will be transient. We’re just looking for a shot. We probably only get one chance. The first system to eject from the west behind the likely cutter will be the only real chance. After it probably breaks down again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Amped said: Blocking looks transient. That means the cold shot will be also. Doesn't even look like much of it gets into the NAO or AO domain. There wont be any blocking this winter. Full stop. Any cold will absolutely be transient. This is about a temporary relaxation of the ++AO combined with a slightly better PAC, and needle threading. That's it. We got nothing else, but Spring. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 33 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: We realize you have to personalize a response when no one spoke to you directly. Reminds me of the Pied Piper JoeB or WxRisk days where those guys felt omnipotent my script is the factual outcomes while you chase 15+ day fantasy pattern changes factual outcomes takes zero skill. it's a weather board. forecasts are made. forecasts fail. you, like everyone else, relies on computer models to an extent, and your theory that models haven't improved was already debunked by meteorologists who do this for a living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 This beast is relentless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 GFS is not damping out the day 5 shortwave as much this run. Maybe closer to a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS is not damping out the day 5 shortwave as much this run. Maybe closer to a storm. It’s been making a subtle comeback today. Enough that I’m mildly slightly interested in keeping one eye kinda sorta on it maybe. It’s likely going to trend to where we just need one more slight improvement then collapse into total fail. Ask Ji how that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 22 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: We realize you have to personalize a response when no one spoke to you directly. Reminds me of the Pied Piper JoeB or WxRisk days where those guys felt omnipotent my script is the factual outcomes while you chase 15+ day fantasy pattern changes Why don’t you complain a little more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It’s been making a subtle comeback today. Enough that I’m mildly slightly interested in keeping one eye kinda sorta on it maybe. It’s likely going to trend to where we just need one more slight improvement then collapse into total fail. Ask Ji how that works. Seems to be the trend this year Snow doesn't want to come anywhere near the MA. We can't even get a close call this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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