February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

41 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Who is Bryan Alston, and why has he stolen Maestrobjwa's icon!!!

They just wanna rip off a guy's mask right off, I'm tellin' ya...lol

[Ji]

It's not a neat pretty cycle because always some opposite years during cycles. If there wasn't compelling evidence that these cycles exist I would start thinking new normal stuff but that's not the case and anyone who thinks otherwise is not being objective. We had some opposite years that were ruined by something else (ak vortex usually). We live in a boom/bust area and that's just part of normal life. Deal with it or move. Complaining over and over every year isn't constructive. If it gets to you that bad then set goals, make a plan, and gtf outta here 
 
Eta: not speaking directly at you at all. Just in general 

We only get so many winters in a lifetime. Giving one up hurts badly

[PhineasC]

It isn't like we have had near misses. If that was the case, I could see us getting some snow in March. The fact is, the snow has been at least 500-1,000 miles away all winter, at best. There is no fixing something that rotten.

[Solution Man]

GFS looks a little different?

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It's not a neat pretty cycle because always some opposite years during cycles. If there wasn't compelling evidence that these cycles exist I would start thinking new normal stuff but that's not the case and anyone who thinks otherwise is not being objective. We had some opposite years that were ruined by something else (ak vortex usually). We live in a boom/bust area and that's just part of normal life. Deal with it or move. Complaining over and over every year isn't constructive. If it gets to you that bad then set goals, make a plan, and gtf outta here 
 
Eta: not speaking directly at you at all. Just in general 

We only get so many winters in a lifetime. Giving one up hurts badly

I can kinda feel ya on that...but Bob is right. We would do well to develop better coping mechanisms for dealing with our boom/bust region (since moving ain't in the cards for some of us). Yeah it sucks when it happens like this...especially when it comes on a streak of years where we've had more trouble scoring. Back-to-back ninas, followed by a winter that didn't produce due to MJO, too weak of a nino, or whatever, then this winter (so far). Brutal stretch we've been having. (and yes, we only have a lifetime of winters. But who knows, brother...maybe there's snow on the other side too! )

[Dabuckeyes]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I can kinda feel ya on that...but Bob is right. We would do well to develop better coping mechanisms for dealing with our boom/bust region (since moving ain't in the cards for some of us). Yeah it sucks when it happens like this...especially when it comes on a streak of years where we've had more trouble scoring. Back-to-back ninas, followed by a winter that didn't produce due to MJO, too weak of a nino, or whatever, then this winter (so far). Brutal stretch we've been having. (and yes, we only have a lifetime of winters. But who knows, brother...maybe there's snow on the other side too! )

I have to ask...why do you put parentheses around half of your comments. Are you having an internal dialogue?

[Ji]

GFS looks a little different?

Looks the same to me. Rain or no

[Ji]

Gfs backed off the northern stream a bit but it's still suppressing next week storm but not quite as much

[Ji]

18z gfs snow dosent even give me anywhere to drive

[Ji]

Digital snow approaching

[Deer Whisperer]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Digital snow approaching

Only 342 hours away

[Ji]

Brings a tear to my eye

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

Only 342 hours away

Probably be 65 and sunny by then

[Weather Will]

0z EPS continues to show EPO going neutral to negative toward end of month into March .  Whether it will have any effect on our snowless winter TBD.  No specific threats showing up yet.

[CAPE]

39 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

0z EPS continues to show EPO going neutral to negative toward end of month into March .  Whether it will have any effect on our snowless winter TBD.  No specific threats showing up yet.

 

I know you wanted to. 

[MD Snow]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I know you wanted to. 

NE MD pummeled! 

[showmethesnow]

Wasn't particularly enthused with what I saw on the overnight runs as far as the extended. But 10+ days is a lot of time to work with so I will point out some possibilities.

First off this is what we are currently looking at. Day 10 is a downright ugly look. We have seen a massive dump into the West and the heights in the East are going to town. Closed Low/500's are shooting up far to our N and W into southern Canada. I hope I don't have to explain why this isn't a snow look.

 

Then by day 14 this is what the above has transitioned to. Again this isn't a good look for our snow chances outside of some pity snow. On the backside of the trough as the NW flow initially sets up running through the region. Besides maybe some flurries or even a potential snow squall for some lucky soul this will not sate the snow starved weenies. Even during the transition period (from the above to the below maps) things look rough.

 

Now I said I would offer up some possibilities through the extended (day 10-16).

First off lets look at day 10 as the cutoff moves eastward. The objective here is to get the cutoff to run through if not to our south instead of the Lakes. Pretty simple to do in theory but more difficult in practice. Just pop a 50/50 into place of which we quite often talk about. It would provide the confluence that we need in the NE to help force the cutoff southward. Separation between the 50/50 and the cutoff would be important though so we would be talking timing. The narrower the separation the greater the impact on forcing the cutoff low southward as it would sharpen the ridging and create a hooking of that ridge over-top of the cutoff helping to push back from it's tendency to pull pole ward.

Now achieving the 50/50 is the hard part. I see two possible sources at this time. The unsettled weather off the SE coast is one. Right now it moves eastward off the coast and you can see that reflected by the lower height anomalies far OTS. But if we could actually see that pull northward up off the coast with a distinct system that could possibly provide the 50/50 we would need. Really, at this time that is a long shot. The setup being projected just doesn't favor this option. That leaves us with option number two, one that may actually have some play. Note the lobe of the PV off of SE Greenland. What we have is pieces of energy rotating around the backside down towards the 50/50 region. Now if we could get a stronger well timed piece that can blow up we now have the 50/50 we need. In fact the overnight Euro had this play out. The separation between it and the cutoff was probably still too great but if we would have projected beyond day 10 I think there was a strong chance we would have seen a decent adjustment southward of its track compared to what previous runs were suggesting.

**Now the above scenario will be highly dependent on the 500's bringing sufficient cold with it for our snow chances***

 

 

Beyond day 14 as the flow begins to relax is probably our best chances for seeing snow.  Several options pop up and that deals with any energy trailing in the different streams behind the relax. First off we have SS energy but that has been squashed deep into the south and short of seeing interaction between it and any possibly PAC energy that has low odds of coming into play. The second possibility deals with PAC energy. But any PAC energy would need fairly good timing with the withdrawing suppression. Too little separation and it probably gets squashed out of existence and too great of separation and we are back to something cutting to our west. ***Want to point out that we are basically in Fantasy land when it comes to when and where any energy may exist in the NS , if in fact there is any energy to speak of. So the below map is just to give you a general idea of what I am talking about*** Our best chances though probably deal with what we see within the NS. As you can see on the below map what we have is the initial push of the NS now withdrawing up into the 50/50 region and we see a secondary push/energy of the NS dropping down into the central US. Now this secondary push is important as it helping to keep the cold mostly planted to the south instead of withdrawing. Now if we don't see enough separation between the dropping energy and the suppression in the East at best we are probably looking at the possibility a quick hitting system (1-2 inches) as it will not have enough room to amplify. But if we can see enough separation between it and the initial NS push running through the 50/50 this would allow for the possibility of some amplification for a more modest event. Now of course the above will be highly contingent on what kind of drop we would see from any trailing NS energy. And at this time there is no possible way to guess.

 

 

One last comment. I would really like to see option one above work out some how (Getting the closed low through or underneath us). As it is now the closed low is pushing northward breaking down the higher heights it helped create. Take that out of the equation and we are going to get a much different look moving forward. One that more then likely would be much more favorable for us.

 

[poolz1]

Good coffee reading Showme....06 op with the same increase in confluence that the euro and CMC have for the D10 period.  Looks like the ULL coming out is going to be a certainty....hopefully the fluke ingredient we need continues to trend in the right direction. I dont care if we have to back our way in, side step, moonwalk or whatever into this...The need for snow is an odd craving.... 

[psuhoffman]

Great write up @showmethesnow

its actually kinda close

Get the heights a little lower to our northeast and that low will be forced under the ridge. 

Its not likely but it’s not hopeless. 

That look across Canada is new and it’s breaking inside day 10 now across all guidance. New isn’t always better but in this case I’ll take my chances on anything else. 

A cold dump is still on all guidance after that closed low.  We just have to see what the specifics within the flow look like when that gets within range. It sometimes doesn’t take as much of a SW to produce in March. Weak waves tend to juice up with the increased baroclinicity. But it’s a different look (not totally, some of the same issues do linger) but with changing wavelengths maybe we have some chance. 

[Solution Man]

Canadian trying to turn the corner and come up coast

[Solution Man]

Eastern NC pummeled on the Canadian 

[Wonderdog]

AO and NAO looks to start tanking in 5 or 6 days.

[Maestrobjwa]

48 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Canadian trying to turn the corner and come up coast

Looks more like just a modeling of a wider precip shield than a turn up the coast (that High blocking it seems to be the real deal)

[CAPE]

I think the 12z GFS run might be a disaster but I need Ji to confirm.

[Rtd208]

Taking any snow out of the conversation Larry Cosgrove seemed pretty concerned for a potential storm which could be a major player for extreme weather over most of the eastern US late month which the models seem to be hinting at. He also hinted that more major springs storms to could follow. March/April can be active months for high impact weather events so just because we may not snow that certainly doesn't mean we can't see a few high impact weather events which could bring others hazards.

[Ji]

Taking any snow out of the conversation Larry Cosgrove seemed pretty concerned for a potential storm which could be a major player for extreme weather over most of the eastern US late month which the models seem to be hinting at. He also hinted that more major springs storms to could follow. March/April can be active months for high impact weather events so just because we may not snow that certainly doesn't mean we can't see a few high impact weather events which could bring others hazards.

He has no idea

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

AO and NAO looks to start tanking in 5 or 6 days.

Tanking towards less positive or sinking below the line of death?  

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Tanking towards less positive or sinking below the line of death?  

I suppose dropping from off the charts + down to +2 qualifies as tanking this winter.

It looks less positive briefly, but models have it going deep blue up top beyond that.

[Wonderdog]

15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Tanking towards less positive or sinking below the line of death?  

Clever but not helpful. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Clever but not helpful. 

They aren’t tanking either