February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Rvarookie]

Not sure which has been worse...this crappy winter or Maestro’s post that add no value to this thread

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Not sure which has been worse...this crappy winter or Maestro’s post that add no value to this thread

If that's your opinion, take it up with the moderators. And there's also an ignore button too. (And I find it interesting that you singled just me out for this...)

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Not sure which has been worse...this crappy winter or Maestro’s post that add no value to this thread

Hey wait a minute...I remember you from last year. So you complain about a post having no value with a post that also adds no value...nice.

[cbmclean]

17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

How did we get here.  I hope it hit SC and NC just to see the epic meltdowns..me included...and they deserve some winter.  

Don't worry, it's not happening.  I'm a SE weenie, but I'm not delusional.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If that's your opinion, take it up with the moderators. And there's also an ignore button too. (And I find it interesting that you singled just me out for this...)

Don't let it bother you too much, though at the same time I might suspect Rvarookie might just be trolling for fun.  Seems to happen a lot in here lately, hahaha!  There have been a lot of crap posts or worthless ones for what's supposed to be a "discussion" thread here, but it is what it is.  Yours are far from the "worst", and I'll admit to making my own snarky non-relevant comments in here too (rather than in Banter).  Now, if we ever get a storm mode, different story!!  (and at this point, fat chance we'll have reason for "storm mode" any time soon, haha!!)

[BristowWx]

Just now, cbmclean said:

Don't worry, it's not happening.  I'm a SE weenie, but I'm not delusional.

Perhaps no but this is the type setup if it verifies that gives you snow.  1043 pressing down with active front and SE ridge creating a squeeze play.  But where it sets up is anyone’s guess.  It will be fun to track. I hope you get it.

[Ji]

as a reminder...we are too far north for southern sliders....too far south for Miller B redeveloping systems...too far west for out to sea coast track and too far east for good clippers to hit us

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Don't worry, it's not happening.  I'm a SE weenie, but I'm not delusional.

You've come to the right place, then!! 

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

as a reminder...we are too far north for southern sliders....too far south for Miller B redeveloping systems...too far west for out to sea coast track and too far east for good clippers to hit us

Nice...like that, and don't forget seeing the back edge

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

as a reminder...we are too far north for southern sliders....too far south for Miller B redeveloping systems...too far west for out to sea coast track and too far east for good clippers to hit us

Perfectly situated for miller As when we have a sustained -AO/-NAO and a weak/moderate Nino though, which happens once every 15 years.

[Weather Will]

18Z GEFS 16 Days.  Had to post it...this will verify!!!

[cbmclean]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

18Z GEFS 16 Days.  Had to post it...this will verify!!!

I like that random patch in the middle of the Atlantic with 80-90% odds of 3 inches.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

I like that random patch in the middle of the Atlantic with 80-90% odds of 3 inches.

That area gets more snow than Canaan apparently. I'm going to charter a boat and drop anchor out there. Best chase ever.

[jaydreb]

Record ++++++NAO delivers snow to North Carolina?  

[Ji]

Vd memory

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Vd memory

How much did we get from that one?...

[Ji]

How much did we get from that one?...

I got 5 inches of sleet and an inch of snow. Really wild

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

56 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How much did we get from that one?...

I got 5 inches of sleet and an inch of snow. Really wild

Oh yeah? Wow (I'm guessing N&W areas did a little better?)

[Ji]

Oh yeah? Wow (I'm guessing N&W areas did a little better?)

No....I was west. Too warm aloft. Temps were like 27-28 for event

[yoda]

lol at the 00z EURO at the end of its run tonight

[showmethesnow]

Sigh....

We have seen this time and again over the last several years it is like a broken record (nod to another running joke). The EPS will just not give up on the idea of dumping too much energy into the West (day 9/10) of what could potential be a workable pattern setting up for us. Only saving grace is that it quickly ejects that energy as to where we are only losing 4/5 days before we can once again get a semblance of a workable pattern and cooperative temps. Of course by then we are seeing the higher heights up top quickly breaking down.

GEFS on the other hand, though still a little too aggressive with the SW dump, is getting a better bypassing of the SW weakness by the NS allowing it to move eastward. This allows for a quicker bounce back (couple of days) into a workable look. GEPS is pretty much a compromise between the two, though it does feature a quicker recovery of temps/pattern such as the GEFS.

Would be a shame really if it works out this way (too much energy dumped into the SW) because it throws a big monkey wrench into the developing pattern. Otherwise get the NS to mostly bypass the SW weakness and I think we would potentially see a somewhat sweet look setting up for us through the extended. Such is life.

At this time I will be taking bets on which model is more right. 

[showmethesnow]

3 hours ago, yoda said:

lol at the 00z EURO at the end of its run tonight

Looking at the 500's that would probably run up the coast. Think that would be the final nail is the coffin for many of the remaining 's left standing. Get a nice NE'ster and it's rain. 

Of course we can always count on it producing its own cold air. That's a thing. Right?

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Sigh....

We have seen this time and again over the last several years it is like a broken record (nod to another running joke). The EPS will just not give up on the idea of dumping too much energy into the West (day 9/10) of what could potential be a workable pattern setting up for us. Only saving grace is that it quickly ejects that energy as to where we are only losing 4/5 days before we can once again get a semblance of a workable pattern and cooperative temps. Of course by then we are seeing the higher heights up top quickly breaking down.

GEFS on the other hand, though still a little too aggressive with the SW dump, is getting a better bypassing of the SW weakness by the NS allowing it to move eastward. This allows for a quicker bounce back (couple of days) into a workable look. GEPS is pretty much a compromise between the two, though it does feature a quicker recovery of temps/pattern such as the GEFS.

Would be a shame really if it works out this way (too much energy dumped into the SW) because it throws a big monkey wrench into the developing pattern. Otherwise get the NS to mostly bypass the SW weakness and I think we would potentially see a somewhat sweet look setting up for us through the extended. Such is life.

At this time I will be taking bets on which model is more right. 

It's been what, a week or so now since we started to see a "different" looking pattern advertised on the means? Evaluating the modeled look now, to me it still lacks the look we need to increase our snow chances, esp heading into March, excluding a needle threading ofc. We are still seeing a vortex impinging on the EPO space, the mean PAC ridge is still too far west, and no hints of blocking. Maybe there will be some relaxation in the +AO, but it would probably be temporary. So whats really different? In general it's varying degrees of western ridging, depending on the model. GEFS/EPS has it up over western/central Canada. That is certainly a better look than what we have seen, but not sure how sustainable it is, or if it will be much of a net positive on our sensible weather. Unless the tropical forcing shifts, probably a good chance the pattern reverts back to what we have experienced since December, assuming we actually do get some meaningful change. Other than wavelengths, the one thing that could really help the cause is probably not in the cards. Not to worry, we will have our stout -NAO by May.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's been what, a week or so now since we started to see a "different" looking pattern advertised on the means? Evaluating the modeled look now, to me it still lacks the look we need to increase our snow chances, esp heading into March, excluding a needle threading ofc. We are still seeing a vortex impinging on the EPO space, the mean PAC ridge is still too far west, and no hints of blocking. Maybe there will be some relaxation in the +AO, but it would probably be temporary. So whats really different? In general it's varying degrees of western ridging, depending on the model. GEFS/EPS has it up over western/central Canada. That is certainly a better look than what we have seen, but not sure how sustainable it is, or if it will be much of a net positive on our sensible weather. Unless the tropical forcing shifts, probably a good chance the pattern reverts back to what we have experienced since December, assuming we actually do get some meaningful change. Other than wavelengths, the one thing that could really help the cause is probably not in the cards. Not to worry, we will have our stout -NAO by May.

Pretty much have given up on the idea of a sustained workable look for our region for when it counts (climo). But I was hoping against hope we could at least get a decent look for at least a brief window (5-7 days maybe a little more?) and just a few days ago the models were offering that up. But now the models are keying on dumping varying degrees of NS energy into the SW which is pretty much pooching that window I was seeing. Now towards the end of the extended we do progress to a look that is workable but will require more in the way of luck and timing then what we more have likely seen if the NS would have just bypassed the SW. Really think we had a shot at a somewhat sweet look in that case and a possible extended one at that if things broke right. Haven't given up hope yet on the models flipping in that regards (still at 9/10 days) but it is frustrating as hell watching where they are going with it at this time. Don't even want to bother speculating beyond the end of the extended because that has been nothing more then an exercise in futility this winter.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Pretty much have given up on the idea of a sustained workable look for our region for when it counts (climo). But I was hoping against hope we could at least get a decent look for at least a brief window (5-7 days maybe a little more?) and just a few days ago the models were offering that up. But now the models are keying on dumping varying degrees of NS energy into the SW which is pretty much pooching that window I was seeing. Now towards the end of the extended we do progress to a look that is workable but will require more in the way of luck and timing then what we more have likely seen if the NS would have just bypassed the SW. Really think we had a shot at a somewhat sweet look in that case and a possible extended one at that if things broke right. Haven't given up hope yet on the models flipping in that regards (still at 9/10 days) but it is frustrating as hell watching where they are going with it at this time. Don't even want to bother speculating beyond the end of the extended because that has been nothing more then an exercise in futility this winter.

That's a familiar look in the E/NPAC at the end of the EPS run. I could speculate about where it might be heading, but I wont. 

[poolz1]

Just my opinion but IF the advertised changes to the status quo are real, then there needs to be a fairly significant signal elsewhere to force that change.  The location of trop forcing is the only thing forecast to change.  The PV remains a beast through the period and without a significant counter a continuation of the current zonal regime should be the default.  I think its a case of either we get the MJO to cooperate and we see a 1-2wk period of a workable pattern or we see the LR changes up top just slowly morph back into another slight variation of the pattern we are in now.  

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That's a familiar look in the E/NPAC at the end of the EPS run. I could speculate about where it might be heading, but I wont. 

Yeah, except for some brief periods the PAC has been all but predictable this year. And not in a good way.

[North Balti Zen]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That's a familiar look in the E/NPAC at the end of the EPS run. I could speculate about where it might be heading, but I wont. 

Sounds like heading toward cherry blossoms in bloom mid-March along the basin...

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Just my opinion but IF the advertised changes to the status quo are real, then there needs to be a fairly significant signal elsewhere to force that change.  The location of trop forcing is the only thing forecast to change.  The PV remains a beast through the period and without a significant counter a continuation of the current zonal regime should be the default.  I think its a case of either we get the MJO to cooperate and we see a 1-2wk period of a workable pattern or we see the LR changes up top just slowly morph back into another slight variation of the pattern we are in now.  

Not sure I wouldn't rule out some sustained stout blocking over top just yet. Kind of favor us seeing that occur, but the question is when and will it be time to catch the tail end of winter. Had some hopes we were starting to see it rear it's head in the extended but what we are seeing projected to occur in the west and what it means as we move forward in time is pretty much screwing that up. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Just my opinion but IF the advertised changes to the status quo are real, then there needs to be a fairly significant signal elsewhere to force that change.  The location of trop forcing is the only thing forecast to change.  The PV remains a beast through the period and without a significant counter a continuation of the current zonal regime should be the default.  I think its a case of either we get the MJO to cooperate and we see a 1-2wk period of a workable pattern or we see the LR changes up top just slowly morph back into another slight variation of the pattern we are in now.  

I concur. If the MJO forecasts fail, and absent any significant changes up top(not likely) then its difficult to believe there will be any appreciable changes in the pattern. As always, we wait and see.