showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think that one is fading fast, but not completely dead. Probably the very end of the month is the next window, although the 0z EPS, which finally rolled out on WB, implies a cutter on the 27th. That would be a shocker. We are pretty much in, 'Wait and see mode' at this point. Anyway, got to run my puppy to the vet and then run some errands (Who knew Valentines day was today as my wife so subtly reminded me this morning.) Catch you later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 This cutoff low setup to the south Feb 27 on this mornings GFS is the best setup I've seen this winter. Not saying much and analyzing a long range model, but hell if we get a cutoff like that in that location I think we have a fairly decent shot at a significant snowstorm. Lots of details to work out but not much else on the radar at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 @C.A.P.E. I’m very skeptical we get HL help, but I’m even more skeptical we can luck into something without it. History says that pac pattern is not going to change and the few times we did get snow in similar years it was preceded by some blocking up top. In some cases like 76 it was bootleg weak blocking but still we need some help. We’re not overcoming both a crap pac and a raging +Epo/AO/NAO. That’s beyond “we need some luck”. This isn’t just a bad pattern, it’s the worst possible pattern we could see. It’s the least likely to produce a fluke snow and it’s the least likely to break down quickly. I said this look is a season destroyer and it has been just that. March offers some hope like 76 because of the chaos created by shorter wavelengths and increased potential energy and baroclinicity. Weird things can happen. But the meat of this winter has been eaten alive by this pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 On 2/13/2020 at 6:33 AM, showmethesnow said: fricken cut throat in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 0z EPS finally came out on WB. Nothing to report through the end of February....only hope appears to be that the EPO will go neutral to negative by the end of the month to give us a chance in March until Spring arrives. My expectations are low. There are the 10 percent chances here and there before the end of the month but unless I see the probs. going over 50% for a time period under 10 days , no more prob. maps from me. (I hear the alleluia chorus). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said: fricken cut throat in here. Most on here realize the futility we have gone through this year. We get it. So why state the obvious (being failure) on something posted that actually has somewhat of a positive spin? All this negativity gets old, hell it has been old for several years now. Just saying. Eta: you know, if you would have just added a reason to why the map was bs, any reasonable reason, then I would have been fine with it. But seeing as you didn't it becomes nothing more then just another post of the multitude we see these days that add no value except to add to the clutter and perpetuate the misery we see in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Most on here realize the futility we have gone through this year. We get it. So why state the obvious (being failure) on something posted that actually has somewhat of a positive spin? All this negativity gets old, hell it has been old for several years now. Just saying. Meh...Get Off My (snow-free) Lawn!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Most on here realize the futility we have gone through this year. We get it. So why state the obvious (being failure) on something posted that actually has somewhat of a positive spin? All this negativity gets old, hell it has been old for several years now. Just saying. I think some are managing emotions. They would rather not expect anything and resign themselves to crap then get their hopes up to repeatedly be let down. Thing is they don’t need others agreement to manage their own emotions. As for me I’m just a realist. I’ve tried to mix in some positive spins at times but there really hasn’t ever been anything more than Hail Mary type long shots all year. While there were some snows in a +AO regime none featured this pac look. On top of that none featured the +4 stdv type AO we’ve been dealing with. A quick glance at the h5 loop everyday is all it takes to quickly ascertain how hopeless it’s been most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Remember the PNA ridge? I pointed this out the other day on both the GEFS and GEPS- although they both were attempting to build a +PNA on the means, the tendency for h5 heights to quickly build back further west was also notable. Well, look at the latest runs. This should hardly come as a shock lol. I am not a believer in the HL region becoming favorable and mitigating the crappy Pacific. The +AO/NAO has been very stable, and although it may relax a bit, not sure it will be enough to make a meaningful difference. The most notable ridging "up top" on the GEFS in the LR is over central Canada/Hudson Bay. Been there this winter. The one hopeful/positive thing I can say is that isnt actually a bad thing. A central Canada/Hudson Bay ridge is one of the best ways to get a "fluke" snowstorm in an otherwise not good pattern. Its by far the largest factor in the +AO snowstorms I found. If we aren't going to get a meaningful change across the AO region getting a Hudson Bay ridge would be the next best thing. True, it didn't work before, but last time it had 2 things working against it. The ridge in canada actually ended up centered southeast of Hudson. Ideally we want it centered over or northwest of Hudson Bay. That detail was a problem. It promoted too much ridging ahead of that upper low coming across allowing it to cut to our west. The other issue was the AK vortex flooding too much warmth into the CONUS. But even with both of those issues we still came very close to a snowstorm, honestly the best chance we had all winter at a real fluke snow event, when that storm failed to come together/phase and slid harmlessly OTS. We actually ended up cold enough that had it phased we would have had a wet snowstorm. Remember from a week out I was lamenting that guidance was showing perfect track cold rainstorms in what historically was a h5 look that should work. Well in the end it trended colder and it WOULD HAVE WORKED...only the storm crapped out on us and was suppressed. That happens...and a Hudson Bay ridge isnt the best look in March...not saying if I had the crayons and could draw it up that is what I would go with...but a Hudson Bay ridge is by far a better opportunity than the crap we have now and would at least give us a chance if we can get something to amplify and cut across south of us under that ridge. It's actually a "workable" look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 All in until something better comes (which it won’t) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 @showmethesnow @C.A.P.E. This is how I could see the advertised pattern (assuming its even correct) work out We will likely need a cutter to set the table... this kind of progression almost worked out a couple weeks ago except the second wave ended up missing the phase and suppressed. But across guidance there is the idea of the mid latitude jet undercutting a ridge in Canada. We would need the initial wave to cut, and its almost guarunteed to cut in that look given the ridging ahead of it in the east. By day 15 the EPS is actually heading the way we would want...the initial system cutting needs to move to our north and knock down heights in the 50/50 region to create enough confluence and resistance to ridging ahead of the next system. There are signs of an STJ system and possibly a second NS system coming across behind it. At that point we just need luck with getting something to amplify. It's not perfect. It would require some luck with timing and such but its more workable than a lot of the other hail mary type crap we have been tracking this year. Of course all this is contingent on this look even being close to correct. I am skeptical of that. Just saying I don't hate this look. ETA: another key to this working is the relaxation of the vortex in AK. Its not totally gone but its pulled back enough to avoid flooding pac puke into the pattern. There is a build up of really cold air in AK so if that vortex lifts enough to get the flow out of AK like shown there...that would be cold enough to work. But its still lurking close enough on guidance to fear it ends up not relaxing at all and if so this whole look goes from workable to utter crap. We almost barely overcame that in January...but its unlikely we can overcome the temp issues from that in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 LOL, Atlanta through Spartanburg S.C. and most of NC. get snow next week per GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: LOL, Atlanta through Spartanburg S.C. and most of NC. get snow next week per GFS But its still there and nudged north on this run. I'll take that a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: LOL, Atlanta through Spartanburg S.C. and most of NC. get snow next week per GFS ILM with almost a foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: But its still there and nudged north on this run. I'll take that a week out. It's in the exact same position its been for 3 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 I’m sure this has been talked about already, but the 6z GEFS has 12ish members that look okay for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It's in the exact same position its been for 3 runs. It needs to start progressing north real soon or another one bites the dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: It's in the exact same position its been for 3 runs. agreed. my view was getting skewed by the better display of precip. Well its still there and I will still take it a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: agreed. my view was getting skewed by the better display of precip. Well its still there and I will still take it a week out. Looking at previous runs I have to agree it's come north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 WB 12Z GEFS thru next weekend. Caution....only 20% of Members showing much and not from the same wave but Thursday -Sunday period with some luck could produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 I am still skeptical of the chances for this...but its moving the right direction actually. It was a lot closer than it looked at the surface. The STJ system is getting squashed...and without any phase it likely will in this pattern...but notice the subtle NS feature there...that has been trending west every run now for over 24 hours and is now getting close to where we need it to be to create the separation between the 50/50 trough to allow enough ridging to get the STJ wave to phase and come up the coast more. This is the h5 look We still need to get that NS system a little further back behind to get more separation between the wave near 50/50 but its getting a lot closer...look at the trend the last 5 runs If that continues I could see this look improve in future runs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: Looking at previous runs I have to agree it's come north a bit I agree with you that we could use some bigger shits in later runs or it scoots away from us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS thru next weekend. Caution....only 20% of Members showing much and not from the same wave but Thursday -Sunday period with some luck could produce. I haven't examined the GEFS members...and I don't have time too right now...but I bet just from looking at the operation h5 that if some of them create the separation needed with that NS vort I talked about above...its possible the STJ still escapes but they develop a wave with that NS system a day behind it. That might be our better chance actually. That STJ wave needs to slow down or it will miss the boat even if the NS system ends up further back like we need it. The STJ wave is weak and coming across before the flow relaxes enough. But get that NS system to hang back and we could get a secondary development behind it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Would be the second(?) biggest event of the year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 WB 12z Canadian...moved North this run also but not enough for DMV yet. But something to track before March is a positive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS thru next weekend. Caution....only 20% of Members showing much and not from the same wave but Thursday -Sunday period with some luck could produce. I’ll go with p01 to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 GEFS did not trend the way we want for the day 8 super long shot but it does do what I said I wanted to see in the long range. Followed the progression I highlighted on the EPS earlier. We need to get that ridge centered back in central Canada or west of Hudson Bay would be ideal... GEFS strongly indicates the cutter idea day 11-12 but then sets up a look we can work with at the end. Being that far out there is obviously disagreement on exactly where the waves will be and that is why we see that huge spread out trough...but the key features are the ridge centered west of Hudson Bay in Canada and the strong indications of a 50/50 type feature to our northeast. Then we just need to see how the timing works out with whatever waves eject out of the west in that look. Again...assuming the look is real...but another run with that look so I guess odds continue to increase that MAYBE this isnt a mirage if we keep seeing it move closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Who know if the GEFS is correct in the LR but it seems pretty consistent with maintaining a trough between HI and Cali....troughs are going to have a hard time settling in the west if that feature is real. A pretty nice look this run in the LR, imo. A little bit of a kick the can deal as the nice looks dont start until D12 but it certainly did not continue degrading this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: It needs to start progressing north real soon or another one bites the dust Narrator: It won’t. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I agree with you that we could use some bigger shits in later runs or it scoots away from us. Mine are plenty big as is brotha. Speak for yourself. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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