poolz1 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Slowly coming out of my 2020 mud season depression. We have been teased quite a bit with projected changes up top that morph into the same old same old. But, those looks always flew in the face of the projected MJO phases. As we approach March it is looking increasingly likely we either go full bore into a favorable trop forcing regime or at least at low amplitude. All caveats with MJO forecasts and all but if projections remain the same we should not expect a rinse and repeat of the past 45 days. It is tough not expect the same but this time changes up top may have more validity than what we have experienced so far. I am resigned to the fact that this winter will go down as abysmal. I just want one good snow to sooth the soul before spring hits.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Slowly coming out of my 2020 mud season depression. We have been teased quite a bit with projected changes up top that morph into the same old same old. But, those looks always flew in the face of the projected MJO phases. As we approach March it is looking increasingly likely we either go full bore into a favorable trop forcing regime or at least at low amplitude. All caveats with MJO forecasts and all but if projections remain the same we should not expect a rinse and repeat of the past 45 days. It is tough not expect the same but this time changes up top may have more validity than what we have experienced so far. I am resigned to the fact that this winter will go down as abysmal. I just want one good snow to sooth the soul before spring hits....Solidly into phase 8 per gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, poolz1 said: We have been teased quite a bit with projected changes up top that morph into the same old same old. But, those looks always flew in the face of the projected MJO phases. As we approach March it is looking increasingly likely we either go full bore into a favorable trop forcing regime or at least at low amplitude I wish I was more hopeful, because it will take a lot to break away form this regime, or as Ventrice described it, as a anti-blocking pattern. The jets are zipping along. Huge record breaking event also on the way this weekend in the North Atlantic. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: Solidly into phase 8 per gefs We need the itshappening.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Just now, frd said: I wish I was more hopeful, because it will take a lot to break away form this regime, or as Ventrice described it, as a anti-blocking pattern. The jets are zipping along. Huge record breaking event also on the way this weekend in the North Atlantic. We need the itsnothappening.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Solidly into phase 8 per gefs Well now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 @frd I know it is a rough winter when I forget to check the latest ens runs.... in Feb. The ONLY good thing about a winter like we have experienced so far is I really dont care at this point! lol It is kind of nice tbh. I wont hand-wring about it is what I mean. With that said, and goes along with your post above, we finally have a double digit neg SOI today. With the seasonal jet changing as we approach March, a possible window of favorable trop forcing and models picking up on the possible changes I am more hopeful than I have been in quite a while. My hope is the first 2 weeks in March offer some chances...before then we are still in fluke mode, imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Remarkable, but fleeting, right near the 20th of the month. Once again we see a good chance at a rather intense cold shot later next week, timed almost perfectly with previous months this winter. The vortex vacillation seems to continue the pattern. Another theme this winter at times is the variability and sudden swing in temps including your favorite warm wet and then cold and dry. Cold and dry in this back ground state is typically between 36 to at most 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, poolz1 said: @frd I know it is a rough winter when I forget to check the latest ens runs.... in Feb. The ONLY good thing about a winter like we have experienced so far is I really dont care at this point! lol It is kind of nice tbh. I wont hand-wring about it is what I mean. With that said, and goes along with your post above, we finally have a double digit neg SOI today. With the seasonal jet changing as we approach March, a possible window of favorable trop forcing and models picking up on the possible changes I am more hopeful than I have been in quite a while. My hope is the first 2 weeks in March offer some chances...before then we are still in fluke mode, imo. I would enjoy some snow in early to mid March before we ramp up to warmer weather. Maybe we can keep the bugs at bay for a while as well. It certainly is not impossible we get that window you are referring too. Wavelengths certainly may enter the picture as we enter the first week of March. Time some cold with moisture and bingo. Near Atlanta did it recently, so all options are still on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 minute ago, frd said: I would enjoy some snow in early to mid March before we ramp up to warmer weather. Maybe we can keep the bugs at bay for a while as well. It certainly is not impossible we get that window you are referring too. Wavelengths certainly may enter the picture as we enter the first week of March. Time some cold with moisture and bingo. Near Atlanta did it recently, so all options are still on the table. Usual caveats aside (models flat out wrong, rushing the pattern, etc...) the models for the most part actually have the last week in February very much in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: 6z GFS verbatim is meh first 10 days but appears there is more cold air to work starting later in the period. Hopefully, the 10 plus fantasy range will work out this time. Fools... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Usual caveats aside (models flat out wrong, rushing the pattern, etc...) the models for the most part actually have the last week in February very much in play. That would fit Isotherms's window almost perfectly. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Is the fun just starting? You should write a 20 paragraph dissertation about how this look will change completely within 2 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, Yeoman said: You should write a 20 paragraph dissertation about how this look will change completely within 2 runs. You seem a little snarky today. More so then normal. Someone wake up on the wrong side of the bed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: You seem a little snarky today. More so then normal. Someone wake up on the wrong side of the bed? Me? Snarky? Never.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 4 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Dare I say it? I actually have some glimmers of optimism now sprouting up for the possibility of a late save to this winter. Might be too much to ask for an outcome close to our seasonal averages but maybe totals much closer to them then where we currently sit? But we have been down this road before so let's sit tight and see where things go. The models these last few days have made a strong move to a very workable look for us and it deals with what we are seeing particularly in the NAO domain and stretching down through Canada. If we can get some blocking there that can potentially offset a hostile PAC. If we can get a somewhat cooperative PAC then things could get interesting. Euro has been leading the pack as far as the blocking up top (always nice to have the King in your corner) and now we see the GEFS has potentially caved. Went from a +++++NAO just on yesterday's 00Z run to a neutral or even slightly negative -NAO over the last day of runs. GEPS is still showing a ++NAO but even with that there are strong indications that is caving as well. Now to a little lesser extent what we are seeing with the PAC as well as in the Western CONUS will also play into this. And even there we have seen incremental improvements over the last few days as well. GEFS is leading the pack in this regards. Moves to a really nice look in regards to the EPO, northern based PNA with a weakness under cutting and the extension of the pv migrating towards the Aleutians. Both the EPS and the GEPS have a good look as well but fall short of what we see on the GEFS as they are not as aggressive with the magnitude of the ridging and are generally slightly displaced westward. The one thing I really like that I am seeing on all three models is that we are not talking a static +PNA that is just sitting there doing its own thing. What we are seeing a pulsing PNA that is spiking every couple/few days and then waning. To me this is indicative of an active period of time with lows moving eastward and then amplifying in the East. Now where that amplification occurs is the hangup as I am sure most have taken note that that has been occurring mostly to our west this winter. That is hopefully where the blocking over top comes into play and forces the storm track eastward into a favorable locale for our region. There is one word of caution though, we do not want to see a strong dump of energy into the SW of which the models have been on again, off again over the last few days. We see that and we will be solely dependent on the blocking over top. Read into that statement, we will probably need timing and luck to score. Great write up... just a few thoughts to add. March is the best time to get an NAO to overcome a crap pacific. With the shorter wavelengths and propensity for cut off blocked up flow, we have seen plenty of -NAO -PNA patterns work out. One was just 2 years ago in 2018. I believe our most epic March period every , 1960, was such a period also. Not saying we want a crap pacific...but if we are going to try to overcome a bad pac with some NAO help March is the time to do it. On top of that, getting any help in the epo area is dependent on the nao imo. This is purely statistical based analysis but there were almost no examples of the pattern we have been stuck in improving purely from the pacific side. Almost all the cases where things flipped better later in winter were initiated by PV attacks on the NAO side. Some of those then did lead to an improved look on the pacific side once the TPV took a hit from the Atlantic first, but I found no examples where the pac look we have been in transitioned to a really good -EPO look on its own with no help from the atlantic in conjunction. So seeing some attempts at an Atlantic side tpv assault for the first time in a long time is encouraging. 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Maybe the usual warm season -NAO will develop a little earlier this year- when it might actually be useful. This would be the time... very late February and March was when everyone has been saying there would be a more legitimate opportunity to break down this pattern. It fits the historical profile of these types of seasons. When this pattern persisted all of January into February...there were a fair number of years where it broke down into March and produced one late winter storm. Not all of them went that way though so I am still skeptical but I am more receptive to the chances of this pattern change than the last few mirages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Most of us here are ready to move on to spring. Not me... I would take another snowfall even if its in April and melts an hour after it stops. I begrudge no one for rooting for warm...but warmer weather is going to come fairly soon regardless of the pattern. Even if its a "cold" spring on a sunny day in later March or Early April its going to feel pretty nice out anyways most days. Next winter is a long ways away and nothing is guaranteed to anyone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not me... I would take another snowfall even if its in April and melts an hour after it stops. I begrudge no one for rooting for warm...but warmer weather is going to come fairly soon regardless of the pattern. Even if its a "cold" spring on a sunny day in later March or Early April its going to feel pretty nice out anyways most days. Next winter is a long ways away and nothing is guaranteed to anyone. Agreed! Get me snow anytime and I will enjoy it! YES, I love some snows better than others, and snow means more at some times of the year than others. But snow is great stuff! I think we still get more, just not counting on anything big anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 LR icon ejecting energy out of the Rockies at the end of it's run....will have to see if this is a 12z trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: LR icon ejecting energy out of the Rockies at the end of it's run....will have to see if this is a 12z trend. What would that mean, exactly? Another cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, poolz1 said: LR icon ejecting energy out of the Rockies at the end of it's run....will have to see if this is a 12z trend. LOL. Was just about to post. It's the ICON so take it for what it's worth. Ejecting the energy much quicker. The look has some promise though I wouldn't want to place bets if we could see that cutoff run under us. eta: Has a strong high in the west as well. 54 mb at one point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What would that mean, exactly? Another cutter? It means wait to see what other guidance shows and don't try and extrapolate an inferior model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 GFS want's no part in ejecting that SW such as we see on the ICON. Still planted firmly in the deep SW with it just starting to get the inclination to move eastward at 180 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What would that mean, exactly? Another cutter? Pretty much what Ralph said...It would at least give an opportunity for it to attack the cold before moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 GFS has the right idea. Wait a couple days and bring it out so we can continue the theme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GFS want's no part in ejecting that SW such as we see on the ICON. Still planted firmly in the deep SW with it just starting to get the inclination to move eastward at 180 hr. It will wait for the cold airmass to recede in the East then head east imo. I realize some are saying "but this is different". Doesnt seem drastically different to my eye aside from the look of a late season start of a transition to an early spring pattern. Eta: damn you @C.A.P.E. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It will wait for the cold airmass to recede in the East then head east imo. I realize some are saying "but this is different". Doesnt seem drastically different to my eye aside from the look of a late season start of a transition to an early spring pattern. Eta: damn you @C.A.P.E. At least last night's EURO didn't show a cutter...so there is that difference, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: GFS has the right idea. Wait a couple days and bring it out so we can continue the theme. well yea...because with such a positive AO and progressive flow... to get cold in here we are likely in the suppressive flow behind a wave and that would act to discourage a STJ wave from ejecting. Once the next wave does come...the return flow ahead of it is likely to warm us up long before it arrives. We need a change in the longwave pattern to offer resistance to the natural attempt at ridging ahead of any healthy wave. Guidance is hinting maybe we get that change in the long range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It will wait for the cold airmass to recede in the East then head east imo. I realize some are saying "but this is different". Doesnt seem drastically different to my eye aside from the look of a late season start of a transition to an early spring pattern. This isn't really the period of time I have been focusing on. Still a little to early IMO. I am looking more so just beyond that period. Day 9/10 onward. Still sort of like that window I threw up yesterday which would be roughly Day 11-13 as of now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It means wait to see what other guidance shows and don't try and extrapolate an inferior model. I wasn't trying to...was just asking hypothetically if we were to see something like that, would it be a good thing or a bad thing--not whether it would actually happening or not. I see the snark game is high today...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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