Weather Will Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 12z EPS has about 8 members with snow during the 20-21 period, few flush, few north, few south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 11:14 PM, Weather Will said: 12z EPS has about 8 members with snow during the 20-21 period, few flush, few north, few south. Expand LOL. Any other year and we'd laugh at that. This year? I say "wow"! That's almost a 1 and 5 chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 10:56 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Wheres @Maestrobjwa? Are we too late?? Expand Who knows...get back to me if it's still there on Friday, lol (and even then I'll only bat half of an eye...) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 11:33 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Who knows...get back to me if it's still there on Friday, lol (and even then I'll only bat half of an eye...) Expand Because you wont be checking every run looking for signs of life? Cmon now. Everyone here is checking every day every run even if they don’t post. It’s what we do. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 11:37 PM, BristowWx said: Because you wont be checking every run looking for signs of life? Cmon now. Everyone here is checking every day every run even if they don’t post. It’s what we do. Expand Well, I don't think it's worth it now until at LEAST 7 days out...am interested in why Cranky likes that period of time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 11:42 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Well, I don't think it's worth it now until at LEAST 7 days out...am interested in why Cranky likes that period of time though. Expand We’ll get one before April. Mark my words we will get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 8:35 PM, Weather Will said: WB EPS at the end of run. At least the SE ridge is breaking down. NAO going to neutral perhaps. Not sure about the Pacific but if you loop it to the end signs the AK vortex is weakening. I have not given up on March yet. Expand Whew! That oughtta save us from 90s in March at least!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 11:42 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Well, I don't think it's worth it now until at LEAST 7 days out...am interested in why Cranky likes that period of time though. Expand Because he needs to keep his snow weenie followers believing in something. These dudes are all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:12 AM, C.A.P.E. said: Because he needs to keep his snow weenie followers believing in something. These dudes are all the same. Expand Nah I think he's kinda the opposite...he actually doesn't do weather hype (he even says it on the top of his Twitter page, lol) I follow him on Twitter--he's pretty straightforward, imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:16 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Nah I think he's kinda the opposite...he actually doesn't do weather hype (he even says it on the top of his Twitter page, lol) I follow him on Twitter--he's pretty straightforward, imo Expand A lot of times with cranky it seems to me like he’s almost rooting against snow. He calls out people on Twitter all the time for hyping stuff up they shouldn’t really be. A pessimist who really knows his stuff showing optimism for a timeframe to me is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 This period just screams potential. What a look. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:24 AM, C.A.P.E. said: This period just screams potential. What a look. Expand Yes potential for early grass cutting. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2020 Author Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:24 AM, C.A.P.E. said: This period just screams potential. What a look. Expand LOL, dude you’re killing me lately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:24 AM, C.A.P.E. said: This period just screams potential. What a look Expand Yea man! I like it. Looks like great trail riding potential. Just need to dry out from the foot of rain first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:31 AM, Bob Chill said: Yea man! I like it. Looks like great trail riding potential. Just need to dry out from the foot of rain first Expand Some of us need consistency in our lives. This pattern definitely giveth in that dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:24 AM, C.A.P.E. said: This period just screams potential. What a look. Expand Cold air source is solid for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:34 AM, C.A.P.E. said: Some of us need consistency in our lives. This pattern definitely giveth in that dept. Expand We've often joked over the years saying "hey, at least it's not 2001-02". If something doesn't break right then 01-02 will be replaced with 19-20. Lol. The real kick in the nads this year is having literally one of the best non-nino southern streams I've ever seen. A dry spring wouldn't surprise me either. Which is good imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:43 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Cold air source is solid for once. Expand Finally! We got this. Cranky likes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:46 AM, Bob Chill said: We've often joked over the years saying "hey, at least it's not 2001-02". If something doesn't break right then 01-02 will be replaced with 19-20. Lol. The real kick in the nads this year is having literally one of the best non-nino southern streams I've ever seen. A dry spring wouldn't surprise me either. Which is good imho. Expand The parade of NW tracking storms has been unreal. Is KC close to a snowfall record? Seems like they have been in a sweet spot this winter. eta- I just checked and it looks like my perception is a bit off lol. Looks like they are just a tad above normal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:51 AM, C.A.P.E. said: The parade of NW tracking storms has been unreal. Is KC close to a snowfall record? Seems like they have been in a sweet spot this winter. eta- I just checked and it looks like my perception is a bit off lol. Looks like they are just a tad above normal there.Kc sucks for snow no matter what the pattern is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 11:14 PM, Weather Will said: 12z EPS has about 8 members with snow during the 20-21 period, few flush, few north, few south. Expand If the Euro really starts to jump onboard with the 21st potential over the next few days I may become a believer, maybe. Keep expectations low, very low especially at this distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:43 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Cold air source is solid for once. Expand I would have to say this would not support snow. Just throwing that out there lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Hope the euro MJO is correct. Winter might make a comeback at the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 2:23 AM, MJO812 said: Hope the euro MJO is correct. Winter might make a comeback at the end of the month. Expand I'm not going to hold my breath on that as the MJO forecasts have been abysmal this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I noticed an interesting graphic on the Arctic Oscillation page for Wikipedia. This is a counterpart to the graphic that Don S. posted for extreme AO events, but generalized for all AO. So I notice that basically the only midlatitude land which isn't on fire is the western CONUS, just like we have seen this season. But I also notice the mean warm anomaly north of Hawaii. So seems like more evidence that the Pacific Doom Blob of January wasn't just coincidental with the continuing pain that is the AO this year. The PDB is perhaps just a manifestation of the +++++++++++++++AO. And I am probably not telling anybody anything they didn't already know, but it struck me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 3:12 AM, cbmclean said: I noticed an interesting graphic on the Arctic Oscillation page for Wikipedia. This is a counterpart to the graphic that Don S. posted for extreme AO events, but generalized for all AO. So I notice that basically the only midlatitude land which isn't on fire is the western CONUS, just like we have seen this season. But I also notice the mean warm anomaly north of Hawaii. So seems like more evidence that the Pacific Doom Blob of January wasn't just coincidental with the continuing pain that is the AO this year. The PDB is perhaps just a manifestation of the +++++++++++++++AO. And I am probably not telling anybody anything they didn't already know, but it struck me. Expand There is a correlation. Plus while that PDB, as you call it, in January can shift and wax and wane the presence of a very anomalous ridge there at some point in January along with a +++AO strongly predicts a continuance of struggles in February also. You don’t get that strong combo without something to do with the background state forcing likely being hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 4:03 AM, psuhoffman said: There is a correlation. Plus while that PDB, as you call it, in January can shift and wax and wane the presence of a very anomalous ridge there at some point in January along with a +++AO strongly predicts a continuance of struggles in February also. You don’t get that strong combo without something to do with the background state forcing likely being hostile. Expand Depressing yet fascinating. I wish I was an eccentric billionaire who could found an institute devoted solely to studying teleconnections seasonal forcing. As an aside, I also noticed from the graph the strong negative correlation between to anomalies in in the Davis Strait/Baffin Islan/Labrador/SW Greenland area. That is where the PV has been parked much of this winter and I seem to remember showmethesnow mentions this area in a response he posted recently. So apparently when the PV strengthens it tends to get drawn to this area like a moth to flame? Do know why this is? Why isn't it equally like to set up shop over Ellesmere Island or Barrow or Novaya Zemlya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 OZ EPS Control has a storm on the 21st also to our South. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Well, the good news regarding the storm in fantasy land late next week with the 6z gfs, is that it’s not a cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 10:35 AM, nw baltimore wx said: Well, the good news regarding the storm in fantasy land late next week with the 6z gfs, is that it’s not a cutter. Expand No storm on the 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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