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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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  On 2/10/2020 at 11:33 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Who knows...get back to me if it's still there on Friday, lol (and even then I'll only bat half of an eye...)

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Because you wont be checking every run looking for signs of life?  Cmon now.  Everyone here is checking every day every run even if they don’t post.  It’s what we do. 

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  On 2/10/2020 at 11:37 PM, BristowWx said:

Because you wont be checking every run looking for signs of life?  Cmon now.  Everyone here is checking every day every run even if they don’t post.  It’s what we do. 

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Well, I don't think it's worth it now until at LEAST 7 days out...am interested in why Cranky likes that period of time though.

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  On 2/10/2020 at 8:35 PM, Weather Will said:

WB EPS at the end of run.  At least the SE ridge is breaking down.  NAO going to neutral perhaps.  Not sure about the Pacific but if you loop it to the end signs the AK vortex is weakening.  I have not given up on March yet.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-2632000.png

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Whew!  That oughtta save us from 90s in March at least!!

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  On 2/11/2020 at 12:12 AM, C.A.P.E. said:

Because he needs to keep his snow weenie followers believing in something. These dudes are all the same.

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Nah I think he's kinda the opposite...he actually doesn't do weather hype (he even says it on the top of his Twitter page, lol) I follow him on Twitter--he's pretty straightforward, imo

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  On 2/11/2020 at 12:16 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Nah I think he's kinda the opposite...he actually doesn't do weather hype (he even says it on the top of his Twitter page, lol) I follow him on Twitter--he's pretty straightforward, imo

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A lot of times with cranky it seems to me like he’s almost rooting against snow. He calls out people on Twitter all the time for hyping stuff up they shouldn’t really be. A pessimist who really knows his stuff showing optimism for a timeframe to me is good

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  On 2/11/2020 at 12:34 AM, C.A.P.E. said:

Some of us need consistency in our lives. This pattern definitely giveth in that dept.

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We've often joked over the years saying "hey, at least it's not 2001-02". If something doesn't break right then 01-02 will be replaced with 19-20. Lol. The real kick in the nads this year is having literally one of the best non-nino southern streams I've ever seen. A dry spring wouldn't surprise me either. Which is good imho.

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  On 2/11/2020 at 12:46 AM, Bob Chill said:

We've often joked over the years saying "hey, at least it's not 2001-02". If something doesn't break right then 01-02 will be replaced with 19-20. Lol. The real kick in the nads this year is having literally one of the best non-nino southern streams I've ever seen. A dry spring wouldn't surprise me either. Which is good imho.

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The parade of NW tracking storms has been unreal. Is KC close to a snowfall record? Seems like they have been in a sweet spot this winter.

eta- I just checked and it looks like my perception is a bit off lol. Looks like they are just a tad above normal there.

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  On 2/11/2020 at 12:51 AM, C.A.P.E. said:
The parade of NW tracking storms has been unreal. Is KC close to a snowfall record? Seems like they have been in a sweet spot this winter.
eta- I just checked and it looks like my perception is a bit off lol. Looks like they are just a tad above normal there.
Kc sucks for snow no matter what the pattern is
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  On 2/10/2020 at 11:14 PM, Weather Will said:

12z EPS has about 8 members with snow during the 20-21 period, few flush, few north, few south. 

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If the Euro really starts to jump onboard with the 21st potential over the next few days I may become a believer, maybe. Keep expectations low, very low especially at this distance.

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I noticed an interesting graphic on the Arctic Oscillation page for Wikipedia.  This is a counterpart to the graphic that Don S. posted for extreme AO events, but generalized for all AO.

So I notice that basically the only midlatitude land which isn't on fire is the western CONUS, just like we have seen this season.  But I also notice the mean warm anomaly north of Hawaii.  So seems like more evidence that the Pacific Doom Blob of January wasn't just coincidental with the continuing pain that is the AO this year.  The PDB is perhaps just a manifestation of the +++++++++++++++AO. 

And I am probably not telling anybody anything they didn't already know, but it struck me.

 

image.thumb.png.434ca9d49726f3af1643df428c706a1b.png

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  On 2/11/2020 at 3:12 AM, cbmclean said:

I noticed an interesting graphic on the Arctic Oscillation page for Wikipedia.  This is a counterpart to the graphic that Don S. posted for extreme AO events, but generalized for all AO.

So I notice that basically the only midlatitude land which isn't on fire is the western CONUS, just like we have seen this season.  But I also notice the mean warm anomaly north of Hawaii.  So seems like more evidence that the Pacific Doom Blob of January wasn't just coincidental with the continuing pain that is the AO this year.  The PDB is perhaps just a manifestation of the +++++++++++++++AO. 

And I am probably not telling anybody anything they didn't already know, but it struck me.

 

image.thumb.png.434ca9d49726f3af1643df428c706a1b.png

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There is a correlation. Plus while that PDB, as you call it, in January can shift and wax and wane the presence of a very anomalous ridge there at some point in January along with a +++AO strongly predicts a continuance of struggles in February also.  You don’t get that strong combo without something to do with the background state forcing likely being hostile.  

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  On 2/11/2020 at 4:03 AM, psuhoffman said:

There is a correlation. Plus while that PDB, as you call it, in January can shift and wax and wane the presence of a very anomalous ridge there at some point in January along with a +++AO strongly predicts a continuance of struggles in February also.  You don’t get that strong combo without something to do with the background state forcing likely being hostile.  

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Depressing yet fascinating.  I wish I was an eccentric billionaire who could found an institute devoted solely to studying teleconnections seasonal forcing.

As an aside, I also noticed from the graph the strong negative correlation between to anomalies in in the Davis Strait/Baffin Islan/Labrador/SW Greenland area.  That is where the PV has been parked much of this winter and I seem to remember showmethesnow mentions this area in a response he posted recently.  So apparently when the PV strengthens it tends to get drawn to this area like a moth to flame?  Do know why this is?  Why isn't it equally like to set up shop over Ellesmere Island or Barrow or Novaya Zemlya?

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