Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    18,171
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Bob Chill
Bob Chill

Another strong technical indicator of how bad this winter has been... Mosquito talk on Feb 9th

Bob Chill
Bob Chill

I'm totally good honestly. I gave up about 2 weeks ago. I've been working on my RV lately and putting new line on all my fishing reels. Took care of all the maintenance on my vehicles last weekend. If

anotherman
anotherman

Cold is necessary to kill bacteria, viruses, ticks, and invasive species. Most people have little idea why we need it to be cold. It makes me sick when the weather people on tv are joyous about 50s

Posted Images

psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

History said if we didn’t see a major flip in the NAM by late January that with the pac pattern this year we were toast. Simply put that pac pattern is stable. It tends to last. It can be offset by favorable blocking but when the AO remains hostile going into February it usually remains so until March if not the whole season.   When we got to the last week of January and no improvement was hinted at I kind of realized we were very very very likely looking at a total dud. 

A fluke can happen. March is the best bet.  But this has had all the tells of a dumpster fire season since late December.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
snownut

snownut

Posted
Posted
  On 2/8/2020 at 11:23 PM, MJO812 said:

What a winter for the west coast and upper mid west.

Expand  

The PNW has been "OKAY"   Washington State has been more in the storm track than here in Central Oregon where I live.  I am below average for snow and it has certainly been above average temperatures through out the winter.   December was unusually dry but January got the mountain snowpack back near normal. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
  On 2/8/2020 at 11:29 PM, snownut said:

The PNW has been "OKAY"   Washington State has been more in the in the storm track than here in Central Oregon where I live.  I am below average for snow and it has certainly been above average temperatures through out the winter.   December was unusually dry but January got the mountain snowpack back near normal. 

Expand  

My friend in Utah has over 250 inches of snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
  On 2/8/2020 at 9:35 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Welp...there's one to fall in line with the Euro...I think this may be the last shot, sadly. (I'll still wait until the 20th, though...just in case)

Expand  

I thought you were giving it until Tuesday because there were too many moving parts.  You already tossed in the towel after only 18.hrs?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
snownut

snownut

Posted
Posted
  On 2/8/2020 at 11:32 PM, MJO812 said:

My friend in Utah has over 250 inches of snow.

Expand  

Mount Bachelor here (I can see out my window)  has had 247" so far this season.   My hunch it will be a 350" season?? They average 350 - 450 in a normal year so nothing special this year.  In 2012-2013 season before I moved here they had over 828" in one season.   The next year, when I moved here (2014-2015) season they had the least seasonal amount in their  entire history! Only 182" for the season.  I think I brought the Mid Atlantic jinx with me . ha ha .. 

here is a link to the interact totals through 2017 season / which was a nice year .  https://www.snowpak.com/oregon/mount-bachelor/snow

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
RevWarReenactor

RevWarReenactor

Posted
Posted
  On 2/8/2020 at 11:24 PM, psuhoffman said:

History said if we didn’t see a major flip in the NAM by late January that with the pac pattern this year we were toast. Simply put that pac pattern is stable. It tends to last. It can be offset by favorable blocking but when the AO remains hostile going into February it usually remains so until March if not the whole season.   When we got to the last week of January and no improvement was hinted at I kind of realized we were very very very likely looking at a total dud. 

A fluke can happen. March is the best bet.  But this has had all the tells of a dumpster fire season since late December.

Expand  

Go to give you credit, you pretty much called this winter a complete dud in late December and you were spot on.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
PivotPoint

PivotPoint

Posted
Posted
  On 2/9/2020 at 12:40 AM, Ji said:

to where? the north pole?

Expand  

 

  On 2/9/2020 at 1:00 AM, stormtracker said:

Burlington, dude.  They've been getting clocked with every west/app runner we've had.

Expand  

I’m in Burlington since Friday morning. Skied Stowe today. Friday I bar hopped and watched 12” fall between 10am and 7pm. 22 degrees and cold smoke for 8+ hours. Skied 14” at the resort today.

If y’all love snow then become addicted to skiing (like me) and you’ll always have a good reason to travel.
 

DFDC6314-B517-4132-852C-38F7552642E0.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 2/8/2020 at 11:24 PM, psuhoffman said:

History said if we didn’t see a major flip in the NAM by late January that with the pac pattern this year we were toast. Simply put that pac pattern is stable. It tends to last. It can be offset by favorable blocking but when the AO remains hostile going into February it usually remains so until March if not the whole season.   When we got to the last week of January and no improvement was hinted at I kind of realized we were very very very likely looking at a total dud. 

A fluke can happen. March is the best bet.  But this has had all the tells of a dumpster fire season since late December.

Expand  

If ya can't get a fluke in February...in a pattern like this...why in the world would it work in March?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Inverted_Trough

Inverted_Trough

Posted
Posted
  On 2/8/2020 at 10:46 PM, Bob Chill said:

That doesn't mean anything to me. Neither does ATL getting snow. Who cares? My yard on the other hand... my muddy soggy yard with flower bulbs coming up.... that matters a lot and it sucks

Expand  

I see your point, but I also found some of those past winters where NYC/NE get hammered - while we always get fringed - actually way more painful than this type of winter.  At least when virtually everyone gets shutout, it doesn't feel that bad.  12/30/00 and 12/26/10 were gut punches that took a while to get over.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SteveRDU

SteveRDU

Posted
Posted
  On 2/9/2020 at 2:06 AM, Inverted_Trough said:

I see your point, but I also found some of those past winters where NYC/NE get hammered - while we always get fringed - actually way more painful than this type of winter.  At least when virtually everyone gets shutout, it doesn't feel that bad.  12/30/00 and 12/26/10 were gut punches that took a while to get over.  

Expand  

But the mid Atlantic cashed in on 2/6/10 which was the biggest gut punch to nyc that I could remember! 

I just wonder if the 95 corridor will ever see a repeat of 95-96 where everyone cashes in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
  On 2/9/2020 at 2:37 AM, showmethesnow said:

Quick glance and I see the GEFS has moved to the Euro. Can't picture a winning scenario if the NS can't for the most part bypass the Southwest SW and move eastward reinforcing the suppression. Not giving up at this time (will give it a couple more days) but admittedly it does look rough at this time. 

Expand  

You do have quite an eloquent way of saying "the recurring pattern and themes this winter really suck and the late week system look like much of the same shiit"

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
  On 2/8/2020 at 11:24 PM, psuhoffman said:

History said if we didn’t see a major flip in the NAM by late January that with the pac pattern this year we were toast. Simply put that pac pattern is stable. It tends to last. It can be offset by favorable blocking but when the AO remains hostile going into February it usually remains so until March if not the whole season.   When we got to the last week of January and no improvement was hinted at I kind of realized we were very very very likely looking at a total dud. 

A fluke can happen. March is the best bet.  But this has had all the tells of a dumpster fire season since late December.

Expand  

And kudos to you for doing all of the research back in Dec on the pattern that was developing and historically where it would probably head. Your facts were easy to read and comprehend and while many didnt want to hear it you were transparent in suggesting that historically once those Pac looks showed up and lasted a specific amount of time there really was little hope of getting out of it. Well played sir....I thank you for your efforts and research.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Inverted_Trough

Inverted_Trough

Posted
Posted

The only consistent feature this winter has been the ++AO/+NAO.  When psu made his dire predictions, there was a monster central PAC ridge.  That ridge actually faded two weeks later and didn't last as long as feared.  We've actually had several different 'patterns' this winter, but none of them were good aside from November...which was too early in the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...