Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 5:57 PM, anotherman said: “The model has no idea what will happen yet.” GFS mantra Expand GEFS has been really sh!tty this year. Jumpy AF and gets reasonable ens range stuff wrong regularly. I really don't trust it at all anymore. It's no different than just guessing yourself unless the pattern is really stable. Any model should get that right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 5:27 PM, Bob Chill said: 12z gefs doesn't support the suppressed solution much at all. A mix of ok hits and/or rain for the most part. Decent agreement that the shortwave/ULL makes a run at us. Some west tracks in there for sure. ETA: after looping the member solutions there is a cluster with a slider. Pretty much an equal mix of slider, snow, mixed, and rain. Basically the GEFS says all options on the table and the model has no idea what will happen yet. Expand But WE know how this will play out and suppression wont be the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 5:44 PM, Bob Chill said: I have a gut feeling it will be quite different than 0z but still suck eggs Expand If the Euro trends positive I'm all-in.....until 18z suite starts reversing any positive trends across guidance of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 5:44 PM, Bob Chill said: I have a gut feeling it will be quite different than 0z but still suck eggs Expand i could see a mix/rain to snow setup with this based on how that front and ss vort interact. with that subtropical ridge i wouldn't expect a slider, but i suppose anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 5:19 PM, stormtracker said: If this thing ends up hitting, my criteria for trying to get out of this work trip next week is 10+. Anybody have a good excuse I could come up with? You know, just in case. Expand Coronavirus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 GEFS want no parts of this threat whatsoever. Plants a trof out in the SW then subsequently pumps and locks in a strong SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 6:21 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS want no parts of this threat whatsoever. Expand Thought somebody else said that the 12z GEFS had the whole mix of solutions in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 6:22 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Thought somebody else said that the 12z GEFS had the whole mix of solutions in there? Expand Maybe individuals. I dont have access. Using the means and using the lp plots map which there really arent any members that I see worth a damn. Even the accum precip mean is meh for late next week. Eta: with that said I am still not buying what the gfs family is selling and as you know dont believe the suppressed looks at least at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 6:23 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Maybe individuals. I dont have access. Using the means and using the lp plots map which there really arent any members that I see worth a damn. Even the accum precip mean is meh for late next week. Expand Well the fact that the op didn't quite make it all the way up this run...perhaps that's not so surprising. Still 7 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 UKMET is just a hair North vs the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 6:21 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS want no parts of this threat whatsoever. Expand Not a bad look imho for a week out. If there is an actual storm id be more concerned about it cutting, not suppression. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 12z Euro at 144 has 997mb SLP in NW MS But that HP is too far west in Canada IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Euro still sucks but a nice step in the right direction in the upper levels. Little more confluence and it's at least partially snow. I'll take it as a win. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 A lot of evidence showing up that says the GFS slider solution is on crack but it has the CMC in its corner. Euro has the Ukie. Cage Match: Europe against North America 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 6:34 PM, Bob Chill said: A lot of evidence showing up that says the GFS slider solution is on crack but it has the CMC in its corner. Euro has the Ukie. Cage Match: Europe against North America Expand Id gladly take a middle road solution 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 6:30 PM, Bob Chill said: Euro still sucks but a nice step in the right direction in the upper levels. Little more confluence and it's at least partially snow. I'll take it as a win. Expand And it seems like if EURO is gonna make a change inside 7-8 days...it usually steps to it as opposed to huge jumps, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 Euro doing a “graceful” cave on the July temps 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Well were within 7 days, so I'm at least thankful for that. If we can survive to 5 days out with still a possibility, that'll be thrilling. I have my doubts, as I'm sure most of us do in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 6:34 PM, Bob Chill said: A lot of evidence showing up that says the GFS slider solution is on crack but it has the CMC in its corner. Euro has the Ukie. Cage Match: Europe against North America Expand Guess which one is which 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 6:49 PM, MDstorm said: Guess which one is which Expand Its pretty obvious. But even a broken clock is right twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 6:36 PM, Chris78 said: Id gladly take a middle road solution Expand ICON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 The heck with middle of the road. Give me a quality event, cold with 8-10” + or give me nothing. I have become the Patrick Henry of winter weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 While passing time...radar loop of the great feb ‘10... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 7:35 PM, losetoa6 said: Haven't looked at individuals but Eps looks a bit better at H5 for next Friday . Better confluence . Its happening. Expand It makes me nervous that no one else has posted about it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 7:42 PM, Steve25 said: It makes me nervous that no one else has posted about it lol Expand Or the 3” probability map. I must have fallen from 20% to 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 7:42 PM, Steve25 said: It makes me nervous that no one else has posted about it lol Expand It makes me nervous it looks better. I was hoping for congrats Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 7:42 PM, Steve25 said: It makes me nervous that no one else has posted about it lol Expand As it should. We need a damn near perfectly timed ejection and trajectory of the stj sw in conjunction with confluence hanging in just long enough. What could.go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 12Z EPS has only 2/50 Members showing a nice hit for late next week. Until if/when it improves, not even remotely optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 7:35 PM, losetoa6 said: Haven't looked at individuals but Eps looks a bit better at H5 for next Friday . Better confluence . Its happening. Expand Liked a couple of things I saw but I am still Meh about the over all look that would probably favor something cutting to our west. Indiv ensemble members for the most part look like they support that idea (cutting west) though there are a few with somewhat suppressed solutions to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 On 2/7/2020 at 7:43 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Or the 3” probability map. I must have fallen from 20% to 10% Expand Here is the one inch prob map through the period of interest. Looking good! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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