WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Seeing hints of good things occurring sooner rather than later on the op. As always, time will tell. The euro will tell in about an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 12Z GEFS thru DAY 8...I found the GFS OP for late next week intriguing... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 the latter part of next week is pretty interesting on the gfs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, UniversesBelowNormal said: You got to worry about these over-extended -PNA Winter's... (I said once that 90% of the world population doesn't see snow) When is the neg NAO coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 46 minutes ago, yoda said: If only we could get that image at the 72 hour mark instead of at 384... Fyp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro will tell in about an hour Euro is going to do Lucy again only to play the role of Dr No in a few days. Dont do it....dont head towards the light. Eta: this would be the 6th or 7th time this season the LR euro and EPS jumps on board a decent look then sh!ts the bed in a few days. Maybe wont this time but my money is on another tease. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 28 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12Z GEFS thru DAY 8...I found the GFS OP for late next week intriguing... 15 of the 20 members whiff the Mid-Atlantic. I don't think it's that intriguing, more like Charlie Brown getting ready to kick and Lucy holding the football. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 here was the euro temps last night for 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: When is the neg NAO coming? Winter of 2021-2022. See you then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 euro looks very intersesting.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, Ji said: euro looks very intersesting.. compared to same time frame this 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: compared to same time frame this 12z yesterday. Agreed...much further South for the Day 7-8 threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agreed...much further South for the Day 7-8 threat @psuhoffman always says its lights out when PA is snowing before we are. that angle sucks for a front end 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: @psuhoffman always says its lights out when PA is snowing before we are. that angle sucks for a front end Yeah, I'm not sure how that helps us. Instead of a Lake Michigan runner, it's a Lake Erie runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 euro is cold next weekend but the upper air pattern still sucks...it dosnt look like it will last long without blocking smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ji said: @psuhoffman always says its lights out when PA is snowing before we are. that angle sucks for a front end It's really hard to get a "good angle" with the kind of +NAO we are dealing with. What we are really talking about with the "angle" is getting a front running region of WAA precip to the east of the low...instead of the more typical band that you get associated with the strong southerly flow just ahead and north of the low. With a storm taking a NW track that stuff will never do us any good. But to get that projection east of the precip you need to have resistance in the flow. Both cold air resistance to enhance lift...and resistance to ridging in the longwave flow to turn the mid level winds more east and direct them into the cold before it erodes. We don't have any of that resistance, with a raging +NAO. Getting a really nice thump from a NW track storm is a LOT more common and likely when we have some blocking. Getting that in this pattern... yea have fun tracking that again. Our better bet is getting the cold to penetrate further south like the GFS and then praying one of the waves can amplify just enough. But its a rock and a hard place...no amplification and the wave is flat and weak. Amplify and it likely cuts. We need a perfect lucky thread the needle solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agreed...much further South for the Day 7-8 threat Verbatim that is showing waa snows north. Then based on 850s next 24 hours mostly non frozen i95. I know I know....you were showing the trend and yes based on last runs a better overall look. 14 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Yeah, I'm not sure how that helps us. Instead of a Lake Michigan runner, it's a Lake Erie runner. Congrats new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: I thought the Euro op run gave us chances for frozen . Tuesday night is close and day 7 has decent strength high north going in with a CAD signal. I'm fine with a 1-2 or 2-4 " event or front end frozen . March 31st HECS is looming anyway Call it just a blip but as next week is getting closer the looks both at 500 and at the surface are improving across guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I thought the Euro op run gave us chances for frozen . Tuesday night is close and day 7 has decent strength high north going in with a CAD signal. I'm fine with a 1-2 or 2-4 " event or front end frozen . March 31st HECS is looming anyway Pretty abrupt shift towards deeper cold pushing into the east next week. We're def not done seeing more changes. No idea if they will be good or bad but the biggest thorn (the size of a telephone pole) in our side this year has been temps. ANY improvement there should be welcomed with open arms. I don't like the pattern in the high latitudes but I haven't really liked that area since Jan 2016 so... lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Ji said: next week somehow has snuck up on us as our best week of the season to see a winter storm 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not really .Have said for days that this period looks interesting. We just need that boundary in they right place. It would help my confidence if the Euro didn’t look like mid May. 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Best advertised look we have seen in ages out west. Could it be... Real? Could the ++AO be relenting? Only 15 days away! 55 minutes ago, 87storms said: the latter part of next week is pretty interesting on the gfs. 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I thought the Euro op run gave us chances for frozen . Tuesday night is close and day 7 has decent strength high north going in with a CAD signal. I'm fine with a 1-2 or 2-4 " event or front end frozen . March 31st HECS is looming anyway 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Call it just a blip but as next week is getting closer the looks both at 500 and at the surface are improving across guidance. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Says the guy who started a thread for a couple rain showers last weekend...haha! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Says the guy who started a thread for a couple rain showers last weekend...haha! But in my defense I was on massive amounts of drugs prescribed by my Snow Psychiatrist. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 But in my defense I was on massive amounts of drugs prescribed by my Snow Psychiatrist. If we got an inch for every " if this happens it will snow thread you started" we works be at seasonal right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 The 8-14 day outlook still calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation for MD/WV/DE. However, the forecast southeast ridge appears to be less extensive than yesterday as PA and NJ are now forecast to have normal temperature. The whole east coast south of VT/NH/ME was forecast to be above average for this period - yesterday. Hopefully, we can salvage the last week of February and early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 I'm still not clear on the difference between BECS, MECS, and HECS (what amounts constitute each?). But I am going out on a limb and say...if we see anything that can be legit shoveled (that is 5"+) this year...it might just be a foot in the cities. Based on our history, a shocker in the next 8-12 days wouldn't surprise me as much (but then again slightly surprising given this regime) BUT...obviously, we gotta see if the +AO monster will relent just enough, and just long enough...when the precip nears. I'm still holding out hope, lol (but this is probably the most hostile regime to pull this off with...and I know we'll need some good fortune) So essentially...we have 27-year history versus the most hostile +AO we've ever seen in years. Who shall win? We'll find out soon enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm still not clear on the difference between BECS, MECS, and HECS (what amounts constitute each?). But I am going out on a limb and say...if we see anything that can be legit shoveled (that is 5"+) this year...it might just be a foot in the cities. Based on our history, a shocker in the next 8-12 days wouldn't surprise me as much (but then again slightly surprising given this regime) BUT...obviously, we gotta see if the +AO monster will relent just enough, and just long enough...when the precip nears. I'm still holding out hope, lol (but this is probably the most hostile regime to pull this off with...and I know we'll need some good fortune) So essentially...we have 27-year history versus the most hostile +AO we've ever seen. Who shall win? We'll find out soon enough... MECS--February 2014--any storm that falls into the 10-18 inch range MAJOR HECS---18 inches-2 Feet+ the once in a life time storms. HISTORICAL BECS-dosent exist---Noahs Flood(40 days/40 nights) but its all snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 WB 12Z EPS.....Late next week and beyond we will hopefully have some tracking to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm still not clear on the difference between BECS, MECS, and HECS (what amounts constitute each?). But I am going out on a limb and say...if we see anything that can be legit shoveled (that is 5"+) this year...it might just be a foot in the cities. Based on our history, a shocker in the next 8-12 days wouldn't surprise me as much (but then again slightly surprising given this regime) BUT...obviously, we gotta see if the +AO monster will relent just enough, and just long enough...when the precip nears. I'm still holding out hope, lol (but this is probably the most hostile regime to pull this off with...and I know we'll need some good fortune) So essentially...we have 27-year history versus the most hostile +AO we've ever seen. Who shall win? We'll find out soon enough... I'll give a loose definition of these here, others can expand on it as they see fit. Actually, I don't think there's any "technical" definition of these acronyms that are used, they're really just related to the scale of a snow event. So here goes... MECS: Major East Coast Snowstorm...usually refers to a solid moderate event that exceeds warning criteria. You can think of this as your standard 4-8" or 6-10" event (there's also "SECS", Significant East Coast Snowstorm, which is somewhat lesser than a MECS). Examples would be many of the events in 2013-14, March 2015, Jan. 30, 2010. HECS: Historical East Coast Snowstorm...sometimes referred to as a "KU" storm (Kocin-Uccellini, authors of the famed East Coast Snowstorms book). These are...well, historical in nature! Typically covering a wide region with major winter weather. In terms of amounts, I always considered anything more than a foot over a large area, but more typically pushing 20"+. You could get a HECS if there's blizzard conditions but not excessive snow here. Examples would be the "big 3" in 2009-10, PD-II, 1993 Storm of the Century, January 2016, January 1996. BECS: Humorously, this would be a Biblical East Coast Snowstorm. This is kind of mythical, and I suppose would mean getting a ton of snow, end of the world blizzard kind of deal! It's usually an exaggeration, like when one model is giving 30-40" over DC in one of its runs, that sort of thing! The rest of this winter? I certainly wouldn't be hoping for a HECS or BECS of course! But I don't think managing a decent MECS/SECS is totally out of the question sometime by mid-late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm still not clear on the difference between BECS, MECS, and HECS (what amounts constitute each?). But I am going out on a limb and say...if we see anything that can be legit shoveled (that is 5"+) this year...it might just be a foot in the cities. Based on our history, a shocker in the next 8-12 days wouldn't surprise me as much (but then again slightly surprising given this regime) BUT...obviously, we gotta see if the +AO monster will relent just enough, and just long enough...when the precip nears. I'm still holding out hope, lol (but this is probably the most hostile regime to pull this off with...and I know we'll need some good fortune) So essentially...we have 27-year history versus the most hostile +AO we've ever seen. Who shall win? We'll find out soon enough... Even when my Cowboys went 1-16 (whatever year that was), it was still a huge win for me since that one win was vs. Redskins! Made my entire season worth it. So I feel like this winter is playing out the same way. We just need 1 damn win. We can do this! F the raging +AO!! PS - new Hysteria Brewing DIPA out today...and it’s great! Hence my goofy post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ji said: MECS--February 2014--any storm that falls into the 10-18 inch range MAJOR HECS---18 inches-2 Feet+ the once in a life time storms. HISTORICAL BECS-dosent exist---Noahs Flood(40 days/40 nights) but its all snow I'd revise that to say the every 6-7 year snowstorms (or at least it has been...for again, 27 years, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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