showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Can we please keep the Climate Change Debate in the appropriate location? https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/ 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 hour ago, 87storms said: true, but the "consistently running warmer" part is where i'm mostly getting at. the last 2 years have been on average warmer and it only takes a few degrees to ruin any real snow chances here since we're already a fringe state. however, i agree that the pattern can flip on a dime and it's difficult to really draw that correlation. long story short, might be a mix of both. and yea, i've mostly giving up on having global warming conversations with the right. i'll trust the people who research this topic for a living lol. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 36 minutes ago, Sevenstripebass said: Whoa whoa whoa whoa..... @87stormsdude, look at what you’re saying. You are taking 2 years of little snow and saying it’s global warming. And you say that’s why you don’t argue with people who think differently... after saying the pst 2 years seals a climate shift to less snow.... I’m sorry but that’s ridiculous. What do you think 2 years of human time is in earth time? I’d say it is 1/1,000,000th of a blink of an eye, maybe less. I lost my old username but had to make another because of how depressing this is to read this year. I’ve been following along every thread since 2012. The references to climate change, global warming, the works all over not much snow is enough to make me sick to my stomach. This area is so prone to feast or famine and has been for forever. A user earlier today was upset over a run and is blaming climate change for his lost snow. Wouldn’t all this climate change crap go to banter? Bob chill has it right. Reporting stations are in UHIs all over the country and population expansion accounts for a large chunk of temp rises. news flash: since the last ice age, climate has def been changing, sea levels have been rising. Climate change did not take away your digital snow. Grab your nearest Kleenex box instead of whining about climate change for your no snow. Many people forget, down here in Richmond, we received 13 inches from a snowstorm December 10,2018...( just last winter). This region is known for its boom or bust snowfalls. It has been and always will be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 i was about to pull the plug on winter but this is the best EPS run in a long time...actually shows maybe a softening of AO and gets rid of the SE ridge of course its all in the D11-15 where nothing ever escapes that window 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ji said: i was about to pull the plug on winter but this is the best EPS run in a long time...actually shows maybe a softening of AO and gets rid of the SE ridge of course its all in the D11-15 where nothing ever escapes that window Not so much of a softening of the AO as much as more of a displacement southward of the PV towards Hudson Bay. That is one way I mentioned a while ago that I can see suppressing the flow in the east somewhat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 Wasn’t the PV parking over Hudson Bay the way we got that cold Feb back in 14 or 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ji said: i was about to pull the plug on winter but this is the best EPS run in a long time...actually shows maybe a softening of AO and gets rid of the SE ridge of course its all in the D11-15 where nothing ever escapes that window That's why I'm not gonna close the blinds on the winter until we get past PD weekend...I guess I'm (somewhat foolishly) still holding out hope for that time period, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 31 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Many people forget, down here in Richmond, we received 13 inches from a snowstorm December 10,2018...( just last winter). This region is known for its boom or bust snowfalls. It has been and always will be. Yeah that storm kinda broke our hearts up here...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Not so much of a softening of the AO as much as more of a displacement southward of the PV towards Hudson Bay. That is one way I mentioned a while ago that I can see suppressing the flow in the east somewhat. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 53 minutes ago, Ji said: Thank you! I need something hopeful to get me through the month. It is freaking cold outside. I’m so sick of 35 and rain. It’s hard to believe we can’t manage something frozen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Sevenstripebass said: Whoa whoa whoa whoa..... @87stormsdude, look at what you’re saying. You are taking 2 years of little snow and saying it’s global warming. And you say that’s why you don’t argue with people who think differently... after saying the pst 2 years seals a climate shift to less snow.... I’m sorry but that’s ridiculous. What do you think 2 years of human time is in earth time? I’d say it is 1/1,000,000th of a blink of an eye, maybe less. I lost my old username but had to make another because of how depressing this is to read this year. I’ve been following along every thread since 2012. The references to climate change, global warming, the works all over not much snow is enough to make me sick to my stomach. This area is so prone to feast or famine and has been for forever. A user earlier today was upset over a run and is blaming climate change for his lost snow. Wouldn’t all this climate change crap go to banter? Bob chill has it right. Reporting stations are in UHIs all over the country and population expansion accounts for a large chunk of temp rises. news flash: since the last ice age, climate has def been changing, sea levels have been rising. Climate change did not take away your digital snow. Grab your nearest Kleenex box instead of whining about climate change for your no snow. Oceanic heat content, 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb temperatures aren't affected by UHI. They've been rising in tandem with surface observations. The Arctic is unaffected by UHI and their temps have been skyrocketing. Although, since UHI and population expansion are also 'man-made', even your Heartland Institute talking points acknowledge anthropogenic climate change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: UKIE went from the top image to the bottom in one run. Can’t make this stuff up lol What a science!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: What a science!!! What a post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: Climo maps are back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Climo maps are back?Climo means 20 to 25 inches for us per year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Summary of everything 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Let's do it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 We have to get that boundary 150 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Let's do it! I respect your perseverance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Let's do it! You pass through a time machine? And that storm failed btw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What a post Yes we know you have appointed yourself the Big Dog here with every 8 paragraph post. Over the last almost 20 years we’ve had a number claim stake for a few years Models are a fraud. They waste taxpayers money trying to solve a riddle they cant No money should be spend on anything past 3 days maybe 5. The reason-models can’t do it. Maybe 10% of the time they stick with a hit and it happens. Otherwise it’s show all sorts of outcomes in the 5-15 day and at 4 per days that’s 20-60 outcomes. Guess what, one will be right so present that to Feds as your success come Federsl funding renewal time. My enjoyment comes from making observations doing the event and following things from 3 days in. I derive no satisfaction from endlessly changing example of possible weather, I want to forecast as to most probable outcome. Models can’t do that and have not tightened things up in last 20 years do let’s tryanother route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: My enjoyment comes from making observations doing the event and following things from 3 days in. I derive no satisfaction from endlessly changing example of possible weather, I want to forecast as to most probable outcome. Models can’t do that and have not tightened things up in last 20 years do let’s tryanother route. Then why are you in the medium/long range discussion thread? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Yes we know you have appointed yourself the Big Dog here with every 8 paragraph post. Over the last almost 20 years we’ve had a number claim stake for a few years Models are a fraud. They waste taxpayers money trying to solve a riddle they cant No money should be spend on anything past 3 days maybe 5. The reason-models can’t do it. Maybe 10% of the time they stick with a hit and it happens. Otherwise it’s show all sorts of outcomes in the 5-15 day and at 4 per days that’s 20-60 outcomes. Guess what, one will be right so present that to Feds as your success come Federsl funding renewal time. My enjoyment comes from making observations doing the event and following things from 3 days in. I derive no satisfaction from endlessly changing example of possible weather, I want to forecast as to most probable outcome. Models can’t do that and have not tightened things up in last 20 years do let’s tryanother route. Models aren’t a fraud. We’ve known for a week that there was going to be a storm tomorrow and Friday. Doubt we could accurately know that without them. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 48 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, Yeoman said: Climo maps are back? Climo means 20 to 25 inches for us per year Right, so 3-4 inches within a 15 day window during our snowiest month.. ie, climo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 It's an op run but the 18z gfs shows something similar to what the eps was showing with a displacement of the pv south/hudson bay. Actually has legit cold here starting around Sunday, Feb 16. Interesting to see if the GEFS starts to hint at this moving over the next couple of days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: My enjoyment comes from making observations doing the event and following things from 3 days in. Seems your enjoyment is mostly complaining about how everyone else analyzes weather. No one is stopping you from talking about it however you want. So instead of repeatedly whining about how everyone else does things why don’t you simply lead by example...discuss the long range however you want. No one is stopping you. But 90% of your posts in here are just complaints 2. If you only want to discuss things inside 3 days you are in the wrong thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Yes we know you have appointed yourself the Big Dog here with every 8 paragraph post. Over the last almost 20 years we’ve had a number claim stake for a few years Models are a fraud. They waste taxpayers money trying to solve a riddle they cant No money should be spend on anything past 3 days maybe 5. The reason-models can’t do it. Maybe 10% of the time they stick with a hit and it happens. Otherwise it’s show all sorts of outcomes in the 5-15 day and at 4 per days that’s 20-60 outcomes. Guess what, one will be right so present that to Feds as your success come Federsl funding renewal time. My enjoyment comes from making observations doing the event and following things from 3 days in. I derive no satisfaction from endlessly changing example of possible weather, I want to forecast as to most probable outcome. Models can’t do that and have not tightened things up in last 20 years do let’s tryanother route. I think you’re a fraud. You’re literally expecting a computer to model a chaotic global atmosphere perfectly. Can you just stop, Jesus. If you don’t want to discuss long range weather and the models, then don’t come on the forum. Some of the best snowstorms were sniffed out more than 5 days out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plow'n Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I blame Russia. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 hours ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Many people forget, down here in Richmond, we received 13 inches from a snowstorm December 10,2018...( just last winter). This region is known for its boom or bust snowfalls. It has been and always will be. I don’t know why I visit here to read this everyday. Especially in Richmond. Maybe we’ll pull an April 1915... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 @Ji check out the meteo for moco (jyo is prob better). Looks just like Jackson Hole!!.... in late May.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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