February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

57 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

But I thought last night it said 80-90 percent for more than 3 inches of snow? Oh, so those snow maps ARE worthless?

My recollection is that the 80-90% was a one run GEFS forecast for the entire 16 day period.  I never saw a probability map under 5 days showing those percentages.  I don't think that either EPS or GEFS ever had a high percentage for 3 inches or more for this weekend's event.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Teleconnections people! The AO is raging positive. It's not snowing here. Ignore the models. Either the PNA needs to go positive or we need to see some serious movement in the AO to have a chance. Blinds are closed until that happens despite what these fake snow maps might tell you.

I mostly agree with this...its why I have stepped back (along with a busy schedule) quite a bit from tracking unless something makes it into short range.  It seems obvious, as expected, that the raging +AO/NAO is going to continue through most if not all of February.  I am starting to have serious doubts about any improvement in March either...in both 2017 and 2018, for example, there were a lot of hints and indications the NAO would flip a long time before it actually did.  I see nothing to indicate a weakening PV right now.  

However, we can sometimes get SOME snow in a +AO/NAO regime.  There are some truths...one being a big storm is highly highly highly unlikely... but something like what this weekend advertised is actually realistic and how we CAN get some snow in a bad regime with luck.  A weak progressive shortwave timed up well within the larger longwave pattern.  Anything too amplified will cut way north of us.  So we are left rooting for these weak discreet systems that can time themselves up just right in the short windows of opportunity we get behind those larger waves when the boundary might clear south of us for a couple days.  We scored a 2-4" snow in Feb 2017 during a similarly suck pattern from that kind of thing.  We almost got a snow that way in Feb 2018 similarly but it ended up trending just north of us at the last minute.   Those things are always long shots from distance because they have to be the goldilocks vort.  Just strong enough to create the lift we need...not too strong to lift north of us...timed up perfectly after a wave that pressed the front south... and from range any one of those factors is likely to be just a little off and so the storm goes poof.  But something else like that could pop up inside 72 hours.  Or this wave comes back.  Who knows...but we are left searching for this type of thing because any major longwave feature that can be seen well from range is very likely to end up a cutter in this pattern.  

You are right...the odds of hitting any any specific threat are very low...but I don't think people were silly to be tracking this weekend.  Had it made it to Today as a legit threat I would have started to give in some cred.  It wasn't a good bet because of the delicate nature but it was the exact type of thing we need to get lucky in this god awful pattern.  

[jewell2188]

If it were March 31 today where would this winter rank in terms of lack of snowfall?!?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

If it were March 31 today where would this winter rank in terms of lack of snowfall?!?

For my location, worst since 1973..but there is a good chance I will eek out a few more inches up here and pass 2002.  That would still make it the worst winter by far in the 14 years I've been up here.  

[Bob Chill]

Just can't get past the "might go poof" range dammit. I don't consider these types of disasters to be rug pulls though. Need to survive 72hrs out for that. At least this winter has been letting us off the hook early instead of kicking us in the kidneys and punching us in the throat. Still feels the same tho... I'll be back next time something looks reasonable. Whenever that is. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just can't get past the "might go poof" range dammit. I don't consider these types of disasters to be rug pulls though. Need to survive 72hrs out for that. At least this winter has been letting us off the hook early instead of kicking us in the kidneys and punching us in the throat. Still feels the same tho... I'll be back next time something looks reasonable. Whenever that is. 

probably when the AO isnt +5 

[RevWarReenactor]

Don in the NYC thread said that since 1950, when we had the positive NAO/AO/and negative PNA, the most NYC ever got was 2 inches.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

probably when the AO isnt +5 

I'm rooting for a +5 AO at the same time the mjo is +4sd in P6 just to see what happens... at the beach

[North Balti Zen]

28 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

If it were March 31 today where would this winter rank in terms of lack of snowfall?!?

Pssst, there's a whole thread on that. Check out the historic futility thread.

[aldie 22]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm rooting for a +5 AO at the same time the mjo is +4sd in P6 just to see what happens... at the beach

we become Australia at that point

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Too soon man too soon

Yeah seriously though.....it was funny for a nanosecond, but then cold because of the reality over there...

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Too soon man too soon

Oops. Deleting... posted on a whim with no intention of poking fun at a disaster. I'm not that guy and apologize

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm rooting for a +5 AO at the same time the mjo is +4sd in P6 just to see what happens... at the beach

I'll tell you what happens...in Jackson Hole...

Still not too late...couple flights left to Idaho Falls....

And keep in mind these are 10-1 ratios...JH will probably be closer to 15-1 in town and 20-1 on the mountain...if not higher than that.   

[showmethesnow]

Yes I am going to be that guy. NAM doesn't look too hateful leading into Saturday night. But enough of Fantasy and back to reality. GFS still looks pretty much dead in the water.

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Yes I am going to be that guy. NAM doesn't look too hateful leading into Saturday night. But enough of Fantasy and back to reality. GFS still looks pretty much dead in the water.

At least we get a couple of seasonally chilly days, before we ramp back up to our next torch period. Gotta take what you can get in a historically abysmal winter.

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

At least we get a couple of seasonally chilly days, before we ramp back up to our next torch period. Gotta take what you can get in a historically abysmal winter.

And we thought last Winter was bad

[ChesterfieldVa80]

At least the Allegheny front in West Virginia looks to do well with upslope/weak wave this weekend. It's the weekend so I'll take my kids so they stop begging me about when it's going to finally snow here.

[87storms]

one thing i've noticed this season as a very novice hobbyist is that the upper level pattern has not been ideal.  we're in need of a good vort pass with the 540 line under us.  i know that's not a requirement especially for an overrunning situation, but the 500 maps just have not had that classic or even decent look which makes sense given the surface temps have also been mostly above normal.

when you sit and think about the pattern we've had for the last 2 years and leading into this winter it really isn't that surprising that we've been pretty much skunked.  this past summer was loaded with 90+ days, so it makes sense that it'll take some time to get back to square one.  on the bright side, this type of a dud winter should increase the chance of next winter not being quite as lame, but mother nature will decide that, not the euro.

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I'll tell you what happens...in Jackson Hole...

Still not too late...couple flights left to Idaho Falls....

And keep in mind these are 10-1 ratios...JH will probably be closer to 15-1 in town and 20-1 on the mountain...if not higher than that.   

324'' for the year so far most ever in JAN 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

one thing i've noticed this season as a very novice hobbyist is that the upper level pattern has not been ideal.  we're in need of a good vort pass with the 540 line under us.  i know that's not a requirement especially for an overrunning situation, but the 500 maps just not have had that classic or even decent look which makes sense given the surface temps have also been mostly above normal.

when you sit and think about the pattern we've had for the last 2 years and leading into this winter it really isn't that surprising that we've been pretty much skunked.  this past summer was loaded with 90+ days, so it makes sense that it'll take some time to get back to square one.  on the bright side, this type of a dud winter should increase the chance of next winter not being quite as lame, but mother nature will decide that, not the euro.

I don't believe summers are indicative of winters. Some of the hottest summers on record are 1995/2002/1978. There's really not much of a correlation outside of DC. DC has been consistently running warmer for a decade mostly due to UHI and terrible reporting station location. Doesn't explain all of it though... it's consistently running warmer because the globe is consistently running warmer. Can't ever deny that until data shows otherwise (unlikely before I'm dead without a massive volcano or meteor strike. I could do without either. lol)

[WinterWxLuvr]

This winter reminds me a lot of 1996-1997. I mentioned that winter earlier this year. Never will forget all that cold dumping into the Rockies and it would not move East. The gfs does that very thing at about 192 hours. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

UKIE went from the top image to the bottom in one run. Can’t make this stuff up lol

 

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't believe summers are indicative of winters. Some of the hottest summers on record are 1995/2002/1978. There's really not much of a correlation outside of DC. DC has been consistently running warmer for a decade mostly due to UHI and terrible reporting station location. Doesn't explain all of it though... it's consistently running warmer because the globe is consistently running warmer. Can't ever deny that until data shows otherwise (unlikely before I'm dead without a massive volcano or meteor strike. I could do without either. lol)

true, but the "consistently running warmer" part is where i'm mostly getting at.  the last 2 years have been on average warmer and it only takes a few degrees to ruin any real snow chances here since we're already a fringe state. however, i agree that the pattern can flip on a dime and it's difficult to really draw that correlation. long story short, might be a mix of both. and yea, i've mostly giving up on having global warming conversations with the right. i'll trust the people who research this topic for a living lol.

[stormtracker]

44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

UKIE went from the top image to the bottom in one run. Can’t make this stuff up lol

 

I hate it here

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hate it here

Move to Michigan

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 hours ago, MD Snow said:

Yup. Given this winter, it's a real long shot. But it's our only shot at this point. Much is stacked against us. There's still a chance and as long as there's a chance, i'll stay interested.  6z GEFS (sucks) seems to be getting us on the right side toward the end of it's run. GEPS seems to get the boundary south of us for a period between Feb 14-18. 

And like that POOF on the boundary pushing thru lol.

[Stormfly]

19 minutes ago, H2O said:

Move to Michigan

Or Whale Cove!

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/ca/whale-cove/62.17,-92.58

[Sevenstripebass]

30 minutes ago, 87storms said:

true, but the "consistently running warmer" part is where i'm mostly getting at.  the last 2 years have been on average warmer and it only takes a few degrees to ruin any real snow chances here since we're already a fringe state. however, i agree that the pattern can flip on a dime and it's difficult to really draw that correlation. long story short, might be a mix of both. and yea, i've mostly giving up on having global warming conversations with the right. i'll trust the people who research this topic for a living lol.

Whoa whoa whoa whoa..... @87stormsdude, look at what you’re saying. You are taking 2 years of little snow and saying it’s global warming. And you say that’s why you don’t argue with people who think differently... after saying the pst 2 years seals a climate shift to less snow.... I’m sorry but that’s ridiculous. 
 

What do you think 2 years of human time is in earth time? I’d say it is 1/1,000,000th of a blink of an eye, maybe less. I lost my old username but had to make another because of how depressing this is to read this year. I’ve been following along every thread since 2012. The references to climate change, global warming, the works all over not much snow is enough to make me sick to my stomach. This area is so prone to feast or famine and has been for forever. A user earlier today was upset over a run and is blaming climate change for his lost snow. Wouldn’t all this climate change crap go to banter? Bob chill has it right. Reporting stations are in UHIs all over the country and population expansion accounts for a large chunk of temp rises. 

news flash: since the last ice age, climate has def been changing, sea levels have been rising. Climate change did not take away your digital snow. Grab your nearest Kleenex box instead of whining about climate change for your no snow. 

[87storms]

2 hours ago, Sevenstripebass said:

Whoa whoa whoa whoa..... @87stormsdude, look at what you’re saying. You are taking 2 years of little snow and saying it’s global warming. And you say that’s why you don’t argue with people who think differently... after saying the pst 2 years seals a climate shift to less snow.... I’m sorry but that’s ridiculous. 
 

What do you think 2 years of human time is in earth time? I’d say it is 1/1,000,000th of a blink of an eye, maybe less. I lost my old username but had to make another because of how depressing this is to read this year. I’ve been following along every thread since 2012. The references to climate change, global warming, the works all over not much snow is enough to make me sick to my stomach. This area is so prone to feast or famine and has been for forever. A user earlier today was upset over a run and is blaming climate change for his lost snow. Wouldn’t all this climate change crap go to banter? Bob chill has it right. Reporting stations are in UHIs all over the country and population expansion accounts for a large chunk of temp rises. 

news flash: since the last ice age, climate has def been changing, sea levels have been rising. Climate change did not take away your digital snow. Grab your nearest Kleenex box instead of whining about climate change for your no snow. 

the other option is to act like we have only one planet to live on, but it sounds like you'd rather just omit the impacts from the industrial revolution on the atmospheric since, you know, it's such a small fraction of earth time.  before commenting on this topic, at least do some research on carbon footprints, etc.  also, no kleenex needed...i actually don't even like the cold (though i do love snow, go figure).  i do, however, have more faith in the people who study this topic for a living and do have concerns on what the longterm impacts of global warming could be.  wish more people would at least entertain the idea that it matters.

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

true, but the "consistently running warmer" part is where i'm mostly getting at.  the last 2 years have been on average warmer and it only takes a few degrees to ruin any real snow chances here since we're already a fringe state. however, i agree that the pattern can flip on a dime and it's difficult to really draw that correlation. long story short, might be a mix of both. and yea, i've mostly giving up on having global warming conversations with the right. i'll trust the people who research this topic for a living lol.

Fewer sun spots will save us