Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 18z gefs follows the EPS d10+ and is pretty weenieish. Now both globals show promise. We've been waiting for PD3 for 17 years. Can't rule it out yet. I also thought the gefs looked much better than 12z for the weekend deal. Westminster death band now showing. Too bad psu is going to miss this event. I suppose 2-3' in Jackson is a little better than our 2-3" so maybe he doesnt care 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 On 2/4/2020 at 11:01 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: There's a chance? Expand i assume if the model is correct...it would go to phase 8 and 1 at a high amplitude but that has failed us also all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 the most important 18z euro run in euro history is tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 On 2/4/2020 at 11:48 PM, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs follows the EPS d10+ and is pretty weenieish. Now both globals show promise. We've been waiting for PD3 for 17 years. Can't rule it out yet. I also thought the gefs looked much better than 12z for the weekend deal. Westminster death band now showing. Too bad psu is going to miss this event. I suppose 2-3' in Jackson is a little better than our 2-3" so maybe he doesnt care Expand You said 3-6” earlier lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 On 2/4/2020 at 11:53 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: You said 3-6” earlier lol Expand Yea, if everything works right. If I had to guess right now I'd say 1-3" west of 95. There's potential for 3-6 or even more but we are who we think we are. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB 18z GEFS. Best probability map thru Day 16 in forever. Highest mean also. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 18Z GEFS thru Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/4/2020 at 11:58 PM, Weather Will said: WB 18z GEFS. Best probability map thru Day 16 in forever. Highest mean also. Expand That’s different...its going to be a razor edge between places that get dumped and places that are mostly spring the next few weeks. Some guidance suggesting we could right on that line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/4/2020 at 11:58 PM, Bob Chill said: Yea, if everything works right. If I had to guess right now I'd say 1-3" west of 95. There's potential for 3-6 or even more but we are who we think we are. Expand "And we let them off the hook" Dennis Green 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 12:03 AM, Chris78 said: "And we let them off the hook" Dennis Green Expand Instead of "playoffs? PLAYOFFS?" "Snow? SNOW?!!??!!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 12:02 AM, psuhoffman said: That’s different...its going to be a razor edge between places that get dumped and places that are mostly spring the next few weeks. Some guidance suggesting we could right on that line. Expand We somehow manage to get lucky and get that battle zone just to our south and it could be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 12:04 AM, yoda said: Instead of "playoffs? PLAYOFFS?" "Snow? SNOW?!!??!!"SNOW?! We’re just hoping to get some flurries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 WB 18z EURO....here comes Dr. No...much weaker surface reflection at end of run compared to 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/4/2020 at 11:48 PM, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs follows the EPS d10+ and is pretty weenieish. Now both globals show promise. We've been waiting for PD3 for 17 years. Can't rule it out yet. I also thought the gefs looked much better than 12z for the weekend deal. Westminster death band now showing. Too bad psu is going to miss this event. I suppose 2-3' in Jackson is a little better than our 2-3" so maybe he doesnt care Expand OMG. PD2 was in 2003!!! I remember it well because I was pregnant and sick most of that week. It sucked, but it helped that FCPS closed all week and I saved up for maternity leave! That 16 1/2 year old baby is getting her license this week! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 12:17 AM, Weather Will said: WB 18z EURO....here comes Dr. No...much weaker surface reflection so far Expand Could be simply slowing it down. I think that would be a good thing. Seems to me the euro was quicker than most of the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/4/2020 at 11:53 PM, Ji said: the most important 18z euro run in euro history is tonight Expand This wasn't funny in 2004 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 WB 18z v. 12Z EURO at 12z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 12:25 AM, leesburg 04 said: This wasn't funny in 2004There was no 18z Euro in 2004. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 12:25 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Could be simply slowing it down. I think that would be a good thing. Seems to me the euro was quicker than most of the other guidance. Expand Hope that is correct....waiting for EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 12:25 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Could be simply slowing it down. I think that would be a good thing. Seems to me the euro was quicker than most of the other guidance. Expand Shortwave is flatter with a bit more confluence above us. Extrapolation wouldn't be fun but it doesn't really matter yet. We still in the praying the shortwave doesn't go poof mode. I doubt we get full consensus until inside of 72 hours. Flow is ripping across the US. Impossible for ops to get fine details right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 12:41 AM, Bob Chill said: Shortwave is flatter with a bit more confluence above us. Extrapolation wouldn't be fun but it doesn't really matter yet. We still in the praying the shortwave doesn't go poof mode. I doubt we get full consensus until inside of 72 hours. Flow is ripping across the US. Impossible for ops to get fine details right Expand Hi Bob. Can you make any sense out of this tweet from Dr. Butler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 12:25 AM, anotherman said: There was no 18z Euro in 2004. Expand 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 12:48 AM, Mr. Kevin said: Hi Bob. Can you make any sense out of this tweet from Dr. Butler? Expand I don't track strat stuff and don't know enough about the topic to explain anything. The correlation between the strat and troposphere is really difficult because it only matters sometimes and not others. The only indicator i use for the strat is that if people are talking about it often it means winter is going terribly wrong. 100% accuracy with that indicator. When there is no hope in modeland for the troposphere some people focus on the strat while smoking the hopium pipe. Lol. Nah, that's mean because there are a number of amazing weatherheads who really know their stuff. After the last 5 years Judah Cohen is no longer one of them. Lol. Ok, that was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 12:59 AM, Bob Chill said: I don't track strat stuff and don't know enough about the topic to explain anything. The correlation between the strat and troposphere is really difficult because it only matters sometimes and not others. The only indicator i use for the strat is that if people are talking about it often it means winter is going terribly wrong. 100% accuracy with that indicator. When there is no hope in modeland for the troposphere some people focus on the strat while smoking the hopium pipe. Lol. Nah, that's mean because there are a number of amazing weatherheads who really know their stuff. After the last 5 years Judah Cohen is no longer one of them. Lol. Ok, that was funny. Doesn’t it mean that it’s possible the +AO is synced with the strat warming and maybe it will snap back and allow more favorable conditions late in winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 WB 18Z EPS weak sauce. Hopefully, just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 WB 18z EPS individual members....not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 1:11 AM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EPS weak sauce. Hopefully, just a blip. Expand On 2/5/2020 at 1:11 AM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EPS weak sauce. Hopefully, just a blip. Expand Still there not sweating run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 Well, Ji called down the thunder ... and he got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Let the rug pull commence! Been that kind of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 CMC hasn’t shown anything for 2 runs in a row now. It’s the second best model. Definitely a red flag. Still plenty of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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