LP08 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I have a hard time believing it being rain when a 1030+ cold hp is nosing down the 2 days before. It hits at night and the mids appear fine. Haven't looked at 800mb temp yet. This looks like bread and butter small event more than rain with the vort pass and slp track. If that stays the same things will look better over the coming days I normally would too but everything so far shows rain (especially for us near 95). Our high slides off and the cold isn’t necessarily “cold” leading in. Like you’ve been saying, any true deep cold airmass is hard to find this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 With nothing to stop the High from sliding off on approach, those south winds as it approaches really destroys the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Looks like surface temp problems, as outlined by @LP08. 850's are a NW wind with temps well below freezing. And yeah, we're analyzing temperatures 6 days out. So what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Looks like surface temp problems, as outlined by @LP08. 850's are a NW wind with temps well below freezing. And yeah, we're analyzing temperatures 6 days out. So what? Maybe I’m just in a pessimistic mood with how the season has gone. Let’s keep the Vort pass and let the chips fall where they may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: I normally would too but everything so far shows rain (especially for us near 95). Our high slides off and the cold isn’t necessarily “cold” leading in. Like you’ve been saying, any true deep cold airmass is hard to find this year. Yea... looked at soundings. Southerly flow from the deck to 800mbs. Ground might be a little muddy after 5" of rain so we need heavy rates to overcome the quagmire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB 0z EURO for weekend... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB 0z EPS for weekend. Still only weak support. You can do the math since I get so much grief for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB 0z EPS 3 inch or more prob map thru Day 15. Best it has looked in awhile. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB 6Z 12K NAM gives significant icing overnight Wed,. To NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB 6Z GFS trending toward EURO for weekend which is good! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 @Weather Will Actually, if you keep posting the money WB maps (when there is something interesting to track), I will cancel my subscription. I'll even start a special thread for it. Always nice to shed some unnecessary expenses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: @Weather Will Actually, if you keep posting the money WB maps (when there is something interesting to track), I will cancel my subscription. I'll even start a special thread for it. Always nice to shed some unnecessary expenses. I don’t see any prohibition as long as it is not for commercial use. I would presume moderators would tell me if it was inappropriate or WB would send me a nastigram. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Damn that 00z euro looking sexy! lollies of 6 inches on the eastern shore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Damn that 00z euro looking sexy! lollies of 6 inches on the eastern shore Anyone have a map pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Damn that 00z euro looking sexy! lollies of 6 inches on the eastern shore In this regime the north trend is real. Fear it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB 6Z GEFS for weekend....increasing chance of snow. Let’s hope it holds or increases more through today’s runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: In this regime the north trend is real. Fear it. I fear temps and rates. Mostly temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Mordecai said: Anyone have a map pic? I did...see above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Sadly a real fear this winter.. trending north like the previous 9.9x10^3 storms have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Too add to the maps...a nice uptick on the EPS for Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 There was a lot to like with the latest Euro run for our Sunday system compared to the GFS as well as the last few runs of the Euro as well. What we are seeing is energy dropping down from the Pacific NW with one stream to the north as well as another stream under cutting it. The northern stream is dropping into the southern portion in the middle of the country and then moving eastward picking up surface low pressure and driving it into the east. Now where and when we see the phasing between these streams will be important for where we see the track of the storm as well as rain/mix/snow for our region. Now if we do a comparison between the current Euro and the GFS (previous Euros were similar) the difference maker is how far south the flow they are embedded in can drop south behind the lead trough. If you compare both models you will see that the Euro drops substantially farther south then what we are seeing on the GFS. This is important as this farther south solution would favor seeing low pressure development and track farther to the south in a more favorable position for us in the east. Now what is causing this more suppressed flow in the west/central portion of the CONUS is what we see occur with the leading trough in the east. What we saw on the latest Euro is that we saw a more significant initial drop of that feature through Texas and the Gulf states which dragged the flow farther south on it's backside. Moving forward a day and a half we can see the results. Directly below we have the GFS and we see that the shortwave/energy has picked up the forming low in the Tennessee valley and driven it into West Virginia. It then tracks it through our region and off the coast. Not a great look for us as it would tend to drive warm air through our region as the low moves to our west. Another thing I want to add is that we are also seeing a quicker phasing of those two streams on the GFS. This quicker phasing is also allowing for the 500's to attract the surface low quicker (In fact the low is captured over WV at this time) pulling the forming low northward as well. So between the farther north initial low development and the subsequent capture we are seeing a much farther north solution then what we see on the second map below the EPS. (***Now the look below is very perilous despite what may be showing up on the snow maps. The only saving grace is it washes out the low after capture so the southerly flow gets weakened. There are so many ways that this look could go wrong vs. right that I would not feel comfortable with our chances for anything somewhat meaningful if this is what we see at showtime.) But look at what we are seeing on the Euro. We are seeing the low forming in the deep south and then moving through OBX and then OTS. Now this look is a good one for our region, in particularly for our southern regions where the heavier precip will be confined, if only the temps can cooperate. One other thing I will note. Look at how we are seeing the energy curling and its location and where we see the low pressure. That is a very favorable look with just some minor adjustments to potentially capture the surface low in a favorable locale for strengthening it and drawing it up the coast somewhat to get the northern portions of the region into the better precip total. This is the look I hope to see as there is some good upside potential with no where near the perils presented on the GFS. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 WB 6z EPS Control...(Mean is not as good.) for the weekend. Only about 20-25% of individual members on Board.....stay tuned. We are still 4.5 days out. That means 70-75% chance of another disaster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I will take 3" inches of snow and enjoy every bit of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, mappy said: I will take 3" inches of snow and enjoy every bit of it. Yeah 3 inches in this winter sounds pretty great right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I will take 3" inches of snow and enjoy every bit of it. Someone needs to fire up the bus. Wait. Should we be in “storm mode”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Man all models showing a ton of moisture no matter the type...I get the feeling this thing will produce somewhere close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Paging Wonderdog. We are in the blue. 2 inch line. all aboard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 We need to get our priorities in order here. So much focus on a piddly snow tv system this weekend which probably wont pan out and not enough focus on Day 10+ What could possibly go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We need to get our priorities in order here. So much focus on a piddly snow tv system this weekend which probably wont pan out and not enough focus on Day 10+ What could possibly go wrong? Nothing will go wrong. The gods have started to smile on us and there’s no turning back. I haven’t really looked at anything today but I thought that system about a week out had promise 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Nothing will go wrong. The gods have started to smile on us and there’s no turning back. I haven’t really looked at anything today but I thought that system about a week out had promise I like your optimism, and if right, your sacrifice won’t go unnoticed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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