WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 This doesn’t produce, I’m never starting another thread. Mods please pin. Thanks 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Well, this Sunday thing is looking a little interesting, although I'd like to see colder air in place. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, this Sunday thing is looking a little interesting, although I'd like to see colder air in place. At some point something HAS to trend our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: At some point something HAS to trend our way. Warmth never has a problem trending I do like this vort though. The little vort that could Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Warmth never has a problem trending I do like this vort though. The little vort that could I guess weak is good. A 1015 low. Its like a very weak high that's confused about who it is and decides to identify as a low pressure. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, this Sunday thing is looking a little interesting, although I'd like to see colder air in place. It's a decent shortwave close enough to the previous cold front to possibly turn into something. It's the only thing I'm interested though. Other than the timing on that one shortwave all the others are trailing too far behind what limited cold air we have to work with. I don't disagree with winterwxluvr with precip > cold because that's how we often score in a crappy setup. However, this year is 100% on the shoulders of literally no cold air when it counts. There's a concurrent string of examples since late Dec. One or more of those should have dropped AT LEAST 1-3/2-4 before mixing out. I'm not buying anything the ops are showing with these progressive waves. It's a terrible pattern to have a good airmass and we're too far south. If every single shortwave trends norther/wetter/warmer I will not be surprised at all. I'm totally expecting it to break that way and you probably feel the exact same way. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: At some point something HAS to trend our way. You're not from around here, are you? 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's a decent shortwave close enough to the previous cold front to possibly turn into something. It's the only thing I'm interested though. Other than the timing on that one shortwave all the others are trailing too far behind what limited cold air we have to work with. I don't disagree with winterwxluvr with precip > cold because that's how we often score in a crappy setup. However, this year is 100% on the shoulders of literally no cold air when it counts. There's a concurrent string of examples since late Dec. One or more of those should have dropped AT LEAST 1-3/2-4 before mixing out. I'm not buying anything the ops are showing with these progressive waves. It's a terrible pattern to have a good airmass and we're too far south. If every single shortwave trends norther/wetter/warmer I will not be surprised at all. I'm totally expecting it to break that way and you probably feel the exact same way. Yeah I am forced to agree. My theory applies to years with normal temps. The sauna that we’ve lived in since November makes my precip first theory look like looney tunes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 23 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, this Sunday thing is looking a little interesting, although I'd like to see colder air in place. I thought we were looking ahead to the midweek system following this potential due to better hp placement? Either way, the window is almost upon us. Buckle up....we are either off to the races or on a destination for a trainwreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah I am forced to agree. My theory applies to years with normal temps. The sauna that we’ve lived in since November makes my precip first theory look like looney tunes. Location matters. If I lived in your area or along the MD line I would think differently. In my yard (and 90% of this sub's) the only way to really have good chances is to have both cold and precip together. We get some warm storms sometimes like Feb 2006 and many others. But to have a good season it can't be +6 for 3 months. LOL. Maybe +1-2 and even that causes heartbreak more than high fives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a decent shortwave close enough to the previous cold front to possibly turn into something. It's the only thing I'm interested though. Other than the timing on that one shortwave all the others are trailing too far behind what limited cold air we have to work with. I don't disagree with winterwxluvr with precip > cold because that's how we often score in a crappy setup. However, this year is 100% on the shoulders of literally no cold air when it counts. There's a concurrent string of examples since late Dec. One or more of those should have dropped AT LEAST 1-3/2-4 before mixing out. I'm not buying anything the ops are showing with these progressive waves. It's a terrible pattern to have a good airmass and we're too far south. If every single shortwave trends norther/wetter/warmer I will not be surprised at all. I'm totally expecting it to break that way and you probably feel the exact same way. You know it, brotha. We just can't win this year. Good post though and I'm with you on this being the only thing even remotely interesting. After this, I think we are in for another long period of warm/wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 GFS WB 12Z for Saturday Night/Sunday am; GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 WB 12Z Canadian/Canadian Ens. This weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: You know it, brotha. We just can't win this year. Good post though and I'm with you on this being the only thing even remotely interesting. After this, I think we are in for another long period of warm/wet. Been a frustrating year to be it really lightly... I made peace with it a few weeks ago. No sense expecting a different outcome with the same type of setups over and over and over... Things can still easily change in Feb. It would be extremely unlikely for a -PNA to park for an entire month. It's usually more of a weekly cycle. 2 week -PNA followed by a 2 week flip. All the years I lived in CO it was really common to have 1-2 week storm cycles followed by 1-2 weeks of bluebird beauty. Couple the EPO and PNA ridges and we'll suddenly have deeper cold and better odds. I don't care what models say... a -PNA combined with a strongly + AO/NAO is one of the worst tele patterns to get snowfall here. Even flukes have an uphill battle. I won't start feeling better about Feb until the troughs quit dropping in the west. Of course it would be nice to have some AO/NAO help instead of both indexes being record breaking hostile. LOL. There are hints of that maybe backing down but it's always d10+. I'm 100% done with d10+. It's been fools gold start to finish so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I thought we were looking ahead to the midweek system following this potential due to better hp placement? Either way, the window is almost upon us. Buckle up....we are either off to the races or on a destination for a trainwreck. I know that's where my head is at atm! Maybe I oughta be more cynical given the pattern, but...I wouldn't sleep on the following storm either! Still a long ways out, but...if we score anything in this awful pattern, wouldn't a potential setup like that be the way to do it? Again, it's easier to lean with the seasonal trend, but I don't recall seeing this look this year (of course, we gotta see if the general idea can stick on the guidance until at least Wednesday first, lol But maybe it's a tiny window...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 It’s interesting that the last snow we had, the only real snow we’ve had, came with the MJO in almost the exact same spot that it’s forecast to be in this weekend. And almost the same magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 WB 12Z EURO brings spotty freezing rain to MD PA border Wed. night. (slightly colder than 0Z.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Well, Euro trended to a weak passing shower for Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, Euro trended to a weak passing shower for Sunday. Yup....next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, Euro trended to a weak passing shower for Sunday. It still has the shortwave at least. It's a subtle shortwave so jumps towards stronger and weaker will prob continue all week as long as it doesn't become a digital phantom. Euro would have been more of a bummer if there was no shortwave at all. That's kinda where we are with this one. Is it real or is it just fantasy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 No worries. UKIE is a much more robust system than it was 12 hours ago. Thought the same of the gfs. This has to be the one. No need in analysis. It HAS to be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It still has the shortwave at least. It's a subtle shortwave so jumps towards stronger and weaker will prob continue all week as long as it doesn't become a digital phantom. Euro would have been more of a bummer if there was no shortwave at all. That's kinda where we are with this one. Is it real or is it just fantasy? Ahhh, Queen. Just dont reference “another one bites the dust” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 It’s the system at about 180 hours that looks intriguing to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 its not going to snow until every last one of us has finally given up on winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It still has the shortwave at least. It's a subtle shortwave so jumps towards stronger and weaker will prob continue all week as long as it doesn't become a digital phantom. Euro would have been more of a bummer if there was no shortwave at all. That's kinda where we are with this one. Is it real or is it just fantasy? congrats on your banana high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ji said: its not going to snow until every last one of us has finally given up on winter. Nah, next 7 days are gonna deliver. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 @Ji lol. D6-10 is dead to me on all ops. D10+ on all ens is dead to me too. Models have been nothing short of abysmal beyond those ranges. The only valuable data you can extract in those ranges is whatever you see is unlikely to be remotely correct. The shortwave this coming weekend is the only thing I'm interested in and I'm barely interested for now... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 36 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, Euro trended to a weak passing shower for Sunday. Many have moved past the next 2 weeks and are tracking PD. C'mon Randy, you know how we roll in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji lol. D6-10 is dead to me on all ops. D10+ on all ens is dead to me too. Models have been nothing short of abysmal beyond those ranges. The only valuable data you can extract in those ranges is whatever you see is unlikely to be remotely correct. The shortwave this coming weekend is the only thing I'm interested in and I'm barely interested for now... well when there is nothing to track and virtually no hope..you hang to anything. In all seriousness...this Valentines day period has been interesting for a couple of days. Gfs keeps off and on showing something and the EPS snow ensembles seem to increase snow during that period. Will it work out? Probably no? Am i tracking it? Not heavily but what else am i going to track? our +7 AO and NAO lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 28 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I actually thought the op Euro run gives us numerous chances thru day 10 . I didn't mind the run . You are more north but to me, it just looked like numerous rain chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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