showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, 87storms said: lol based off of some of the other conversations i've read all winter, i think i'm being real tame. also, i'm just speaking facts...or at least i try to. the funny part is i never even said man made climate change...i just said global warming and then someone assumed i was indicating it's all man made. fact of the matter is that it's been warmer the last couple years. that was my point and that it might take time to break that type of a pattern. The one thing I have learned is that these are two topics that better left off these boards. Seen some pretty nasty dustups over the years. Kind of ruins the enjoyment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, showmethesnow said: The one thing I have learned is that these are two topics that better left off these boards. Seen some pretty nasty dustups over the years. Kind of ruins the enjoyment. oh trust me, i'm too much of a veteran at this point to get into keyboard warrior mma lol. i wasn't even trying to spark that type of a debate. i was legit stating facts that (1) it's been warmer the last couple years and (2) the right (which by the way, many of my family members are) are very, very stuck in their ways/mindsets. (2) can be taken as a zinger, but it's really not. just speaking truths from my own experiences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 capital weather gang i think severely busted on summer and now they are going to bust severely on winter. In other words, like the rest of us..they have no idea what they are doing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I'll tell you what happens...in Jackson Hole... Still not too late...couple flights left to Idaho Falls.... And keep in mind these are 10-1 ratios...JH will probably be closer to 15-1 in town and 20-1 on the mountain...if not higher than that. I know that you’re probably joking, but just in case, I just read an article a few days ago about how Jackson Hole is severely overcrowded as a result of the Ikon pass. No parking and super long lines for the trams. It would still be cool to go just for the record snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Flood Watch! Yay! https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lwx&wwa=flood watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 23 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Flood Watch! Yay! https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lwx&wwa=flood watch i haven't paid attention to the water table, but it might be needed. ground seemed fairly dry when i went biking the other day...more so than in recent weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I think I'm gonna crack open a WWS and pore over the guidance in anticipation of the coming deluge. Flood watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 30 minutes ago, 87storms said: i haven't paid attention to the water table, but it might be needed. ground seemed fairly dry when i went biking the other day...more so than in recent weeks. It's pretty much recharged here over the past few months since the drought. Easy to tell by the ditches and in the areas with heavy soil- water table breaks the surface and just ponds there until Spring. If the forecasted 2-3" materializes it will be pretty wet around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 10 years ago today..."Snowmageddon" began (Feb. 5-6, 2010)!! Here's a photo from early morning on the 6th that I took: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: We have to get that boundary 150 miles south It would be easier to just move 150 miles north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: It would be easier to just move 150 miles north. True lol. There’s only three places I would consider moving. State College, Maine, or a western state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: True lol. There’s only three places I would consider moving. State College, Maine, or a western state. Those are all good. I would also seriously consider Nova Scotia or New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 4 hours ago, Baltimorewx said: But then back to snow and a heavy dump Hope my flight gets out of here tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Those are all good. I would also seriously consider Nova Scotia or New Brunswick. Pretty sure I couldn’t leave the country. But now that you brought it up, I’ve always thought Newfoundland probably has some cool weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: On a serious note, I actually ran the numbers a few years ago in a purely statistical analysis (no pattern or actual forecasts just from the numbers) and there is no predictive value for snowfall from one year to the next. The illusion that we are more likely to get snow after bad years is perception and confirmation bias. Yes...going into or looking back at any period LONG runs of anomalously good or bad snowfall is unlikely simply because getting an anomaly to happen multiple times in a row is unlikely. But once one year is over...regardless of the outcome, the odds of getting more or less snowfall the following year is not changed at all. Think of it like a coin toss. The odds of getting 5 heads in a row is about 3%. So before starting the process the odds of 5 heads is very very low. BUT...once you have flipped 4 heads in a row the odds of getting that 5th is still 50/50. The odds of that last flip is NOT affected by the first 4. Snowfall is like that. Now that is purely from a statistical analysis. There are some multi year patterns like the NAO that can stack the odds of multiple years, but even those things only move the needle a little bit as you can get a -NAO year in the midst of a long term +NAO cycle...or you can get a year like 2014 with a lot of snow without a -NAO. But right now its impossible to predict patterns next year anyways. Enso/NAO/PDO...all could go in any direction by next year. NAO is definitely in a + cycle but the fact we are near solar minimum would increase the chances of a long term phase flip sometime soon... I am pretty sure you were just making a half joking post but I wanted to post this since I actually ran the numbers a while ago and there is absolutely no truth to the "were due" index either good or bad. I 100% agree. I can't really argue it because you nailed it. This was something I was going to say during our climo argument but just never really got to it. Plus you kind of tossed in the "atmospheric memory" stuff which made me doubt myself. That being said, stats still have meaning, and the odds of getting a year with less than the .6 inches we have here in Delaware (assuming we don't get anymore snow), and having it be back to back, has to got to be astronomically low. Could it happen? Sure. Aliens could also technically show up at my house too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: It's pretty much recharged here over the past few months since the drought. Easy to tell by the ditches and in the areas with heavy soil- water table breaks the surface and just ponds there until Spring. If the forecasted 2-3" materializes it will be pretty wet around here. Hmm, yea I guess I just expected it to be more damp/muddy, though a flood watch also implies the ground is already saturated so maybe it was just drier at the surface where I was biking (northern moco). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 31 minutes ago, 87storms said: Hmm, yea I guess I just expected it to be more damp/muddy, though a flood watch also implies the ground is already saturated so maybe it was just drier at the surface where I was biking (northern moco). Well it's somewhat different up there with more elevation and a better drained red clay/rocky soil. Over here the upland and lowland(poorly drained) soils are not separated much in elevation. Thus the generally high water table. eta- Speaking of the upper eastern shore. The lower shore, although even flatter, has much less heavy clay, is more sandy, and drains better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Since people are posting snow pics, this one is from Feb 3 2014 my kid is not that little anymore 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Well it's somewhat different up there with more elevation and a better drained red clay/rocky soil. Over here the upland and lowland(poorly drained) soils are not separated much in elevation. Thus the generally high water table. eta- Speaking of the upper eastern shore. The lower shore, although even flatter, has much less heavy clay, is more sandy, and drains better. It's a mud pit in many areas of moco. The strip between the sidewalk and road in front of my house is a mess. My favorite mountain bike trails have been a mess since early Jan. Frozen ground fixes that quickly but what the hell is frozen ground? Haven't seen that since early Dec... It's going to take a looong time to dry out after the next 3 days. It's actually kinda depressing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's a mud pit in many areas of moco. The strip between the sidewalk and road in front of my house is a mess. My favorite mountain bike trails have been a mess since early Jan. Frozen ground fixes that quickly but what the hell is frozen ground? Haven't seen that since early Dec... Yeah frozen soil has been sparse. Love it, but man hard to come by this year. I take a stroll in my yard and my shoes come off and stay out on the deck for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: That's an awesome pic. Your house could be used for post cards. Beautiful house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: That's an awesome pic. Your house could be used for post cards. Beautiful house. Thanks. It might be for sale soon. Seriously. Any takers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Thanks. It might be for sale soon. Seriously. Any takers? It's a lovely house but I don't want to lose the extra 3" of snow per year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Happy anniversary! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a mud pit in many areas of moco. The strip between the sidewalk and road in front of my house is a mess. My favorite mountain bike trails have been a mess since early Jan. Frozen ground fixes that quickly but what the hell is frozen ground? Haven't seen that since early Dec... It's going to take a looong time to dry out after the next 3 days. It's actually kinda depressing. schaeffer was actually closed monday due to wet/muddy conditions (which was annoying), so i went to black hill west and truth be told, it was fairly dry lol. sounds like i might have just lucked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: It's a lovely house but I don't want to lose the extra 3" of snow per year Is that the mean or median? Ground truth reality - most winters you probably could count on a 66% reduction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Thanks. It might be for sale soon. Seriously. Any takers? I’ll offer 20,000, a weatherbell subscription and a Justin Berk snow stick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: I’ll offer 20,000, a weatherbell subscription and a Justin Berk snow stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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