CAPE Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 47 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I hope my 5:59 am posting met your needs. As currently depicted on both the GFS and the Euro there really isn't much upside to possible snow. Even if we would end up with the separation we would need the farther N track of the SW and very little dig probably argues for 1-2 inches at best. Still time to see the changes we need but I am not overly optimistic at this point. I was never enthused about that trailing wave, given how flat and progressive the flow is at that time, and it being right on the heels of the big event. Not surprised at all to see early AM runs all but kill it. Could come back though, as until the stronger wave(s) get out of the way, the spacing and potential for a bit more dig will be difficult for guidance to resolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I feel bad for Ji...he hasn't been able to feed his FB hens any corn all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I was never enthused about that trailing wave, given how flat and progressive the flow is at that time, and it being right on the heels of the big event. Not surprised at all to see early AM runs all but kill it. Could come back though, as until the stronger wave(s) get out of the way, the spacing and potential for a but more dig will be difficult for guidance to resolve. That SW had a good look days ago that showed promise but it continues to degrade as we near in time. Still have 3 1/2-4 days to get things right so I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 14 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Guess who issued his first ever Blizzard Warning in the NWS? hehehehe your tweet yesterday made me smile 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 8 hours ago, Cobalt said: I think people believe that this allows kids to be influenced by the hard hits and contact nature of the sport, but honestly in my experience it deterred me from wanting to play contact football. I was an avid fan when I was real young (still am). Was told by my dad that after Redskins losses I'd go up to my room to cry, until I got to the age where I just accepted Sunday losses as a fact of life. Honestly, I've heard from many that allowing their kid to watch a sport and get attached to a team will teach them a lesson about being let down by something they can't control. Pretty sure this doesn't apply for Pats fans though. I played rec football for 1 year....broke my arm. Stuck to baseball after that lol. So I get it...but there are a LOT of kids who make football "their sport". I watched football when i was a young kid, but I really got into it at about aged 11-12. The Ravens won the first SB when I was 13, so that really spiked it for me. I do think there are some life lessons to be learned from football, it is the ultimate team sport imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Per Ian on twitter, DCA has not had a single high 32 or below so far this "winter". Has a chance to match '97-'98 if they finish off with no highs freezing or below. Course, that was a super nino year - unsettling to have this problem in an ENSO neutral season... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Welp, I was holding put hope for a PD weekend miracle, but.....if that is no longer possible...guess I gotta start grieving the winter (and the 3-4 year trend. What a way for it to end if that does indeed happen). And I'm already fearing for next year if we either get this same pattern, or even worse draw a la nina. Man if that happens next year, that's gonna be another gut punch. If we repeat this ENSO state for another year...that'll be another. This is absolutely the worst that could ever happen...and I am straight up depressed. I'll move on eventually...but just seeing the futility of this winter play out in real time makes it difficult because you're constantly reminded how bad it is...and it seriously dampens the days. Hard to get excited about things...winter ain't winter...it's just awful. Every morning I wake up to more bad news about the winter and it starts the day off terribly. Snow=some happiness (during JF in particular...) I can't move (for many reasons) and cannot make a trip, so I'm stuck. I don't care if I'm ranting...I've got every reason to, atm...I just want this month to be over already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On the plus side of things, it can't really get any worse. Next winter is guaranteed to be better. Only need an inch of snow to beat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said: On the plus side of things, it can't really get any worse. Next winter is guaranteed to be better. Only need an inch of snow to beat it. Nothing is guaranteed. Ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: On the plus side of things, it can't really get any worse. Next winter is guaranteed to be better. Only need an inch of snow to beat it. DUDE>>>> don't tempt the snow gods...they are viscous unmerciful beasts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 15 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: On the plus side of things, it can't really get any worse. Next winter is guaranteed to be better. Only need an inch of snow to beat it. Historically it usually takes one rebuilding season to get out of dumpster fires like this one (the exception to this was 01/02 though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: On the plus side of things, it can't really get any worse. Next winter is guaranteed to be better. Only need an inch of snow to beat it. On a serious note, I actually ran the numbers a few years ago in a purely statistical analysis (no pattern or actual forecasts just from the numbers) and there is no predictive value for snowfall from one year to the next. The illusion that we are more likely to get snow after bad years is perception and confirmation bias. Yes...going into or looking back at any period LONG runs of anomalously good or bad snowfall is unlikely simply because getting an anomaly to happen multiple times in a row is unlikely. But once one year is over...regardless of the outcome, the odds of getting more or less snowfall the following year is not changed at all. Think of it like a coin toss. The odds of getting 5 heads in a row is about 3%. So before starting the process the odds of 5 heads is very very low. BUT...once you have flipped 4 heads in a row the odds of getting that 5th is still 50/50. The odds of that last flip is NOT affected by the first 4. Snowfall is like that. Now that is purely from a statistical analysis. There are some multi year patterns like the NAO that can stack the odds of multiple years, but even those things only move the needle a little bit as you can get a -NAO year in the midst of a long term +NAO cycle...or you can get a year like 2014 with a lot of snow without a -NAO. But right now its impossible to predict patterns next year anyways. Enso/NAO/PDO...all could go in any direction by next year. NAO is definitely in a + cycle but the fact we are near solar minimum would increase the chances of a long term phase flip sometime soon... I am pretty sure you were just making a half joking post but I wanted to post this since I actually ran the numbers a while ago and there is absolutely no truth to the "were due" index either good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 @psuhoffman after living in md for 40 of the last 50 years I've learned loud and clear that every single year has fair and even odds of a disaster except mod ninos. Otoh- I've learned that good years are pretty rare and should be cherished no matter what. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 We are more of a good storm town than a good winter town...snow rarely sticks and stays, cold is often fleeting, we rain more than we snow...it's who we are and have always been. The simple fact that we can get a foot of snow heck 2' sometimes...3 even if you live in the right place gives some a false hope that it is normal. So my area gets 70" one year then the next 3 a total of 30" so 100" in 4 years sound awesome...average 25" per year...hmmm but but but we got 70"!!! anyway...hope it snows soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman after living in md for 40 of the last 50 years I've learned loud and clear that every single year has fair and even odds of a disaster except mod ninos. Otoh- I've learned that good years are pretty rare and should be cherished no matter what. I feel incredibly lucky to have had that one really good 4 day period of "winter" up here from that fluke early January. That was incredibly lucky really...had a window of like 2 seconds as a transient ridge traversed the PNA domain on its way to blowtorching us a few days later and I scored on a perfectly timed wave. If that is all there is I am at peace with the world. I've moved on with my life...still keeping an eye on things for another such fluke...but its apparent that the PV from hell is intent on taking a huge dump all over this entire winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 18 hours ago, snowmagnet said: You can’t show that here. Completely inappropriate! So...it's not for kids. Right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I'm going to predict it now....28" snowstorm on March 11th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I’ve tried to remain hopeful but I’m pretty much resigned to the fact that if we get a decent snow, and that’s a big if, that it’s gonna come in late Feb early March and it’s gonna be one of those deals where it’s 75 three days later. This winter is almost at a point where it can’t be saved from a failing grade. Not there yet but getting very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ve tried to remain hopeful but I’m pretty much resigned to the fact that if we get a decent snow, and that’s a big if, that it’s gonna come in late Feb early March and it’s gonna be one of those deals where it’s 75 three days later. This winter is almost at a point where it can’t be saved from a failing grade. Not there yet but getting very close. If we somehow manage a big fluke event like that, I hope it's pure cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I'm up in Albany for work today then have to head over to Syracuse for more meetings tomorrow. Even up here the snow will flip to rain tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Even if this winter sucks we still have Bowie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 49 minutes ago, nj2va said: I'm up in Albany for work today then have to head over to Syracuse for more meetings tomorrow. Even up here the snow will flip to rain tomorrow morning. But then back to snow and a heavy dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Even if this winter sucks we still have Bowie We don't. He died a few years back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 27 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: We don't. He died a few years back... Still have Prince tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Still have Prince tho Been hunting for tickets for one of his shows but I haven't had much luck so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Been hunting for tickets for one of his shows but I haven't had much luck so far. He is touring with Bowie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 i'll never understand the purpose of arguing against man made climate change. at the very least, we'll have a cleaner planet. not saying i'm mr. green, but it's always concerning to me when there's people that simply don't even want to believe it could possibly exist. anyway... how about that dog and pony show last night??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: i'll never understand the purpose of arguing against man made climate change. at the very least, we'll have a cleaner planet. not saying i'm mr. green, but it's always concerning to me when there's people that simply don't even want to believe it could possibly exist. anyway... how about that dog and pony show last night??? And now we are going to try to get a conversation started in politics? You are batting 2 for 2 today. It's bad enough that people are primed to go off with the crappy winter we have had but now you want to throw a.... Pretty much asking for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And now we are going to try to get a conversation started in politics? You are batting 2 for 2 today. It's bad enough that people are primed to go off with the crappy winter we have had but now you want to throw a.... Pretty much asking for... lol based off of some of the other conversations i've read all winter, i think i'm being real tame. also, i'm just speaking facts...or at least i try to. the funny part is i never even said man made climate change...i just said global warming and then someone assumed i was indicating it's all man made. fact of the matter is that it's been warmer the last couple years. that was my point and that it might take time to break that type of a pattern. trust me, i'd much rather talk about sports and weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 ...also, i actually still wouldn't be surprised if we break this type of a pattern with a legitimate snowstorm. there have been cold shots, just few and far between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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