February Banter 2020

[George BM]

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Happy February to all!!  Let's keep this thread clean and on topic, sticking only to model discussions and anything relevant to that or to climatology.  Mods, please move any banter over to the main medium range thread where it belongs...thanks!! 

[psuhoffman]

I have a dusting of snow on my lawn from last night. I’ll call that a win. 

[mappy]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I have a dusting of snow on my lawn from last night. I’ll call that a win. 

Nice man! 

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have a dusting of snow on my lawn from last night. I’ll call that a win. 

Thought I did here as well. Then I went out and looked and it was nothing more then one of the heavier frosts I had ever seen. I am sure there is a correlation between heavy frost and coming snow. Like the Fog correlation presented by someone earlier in the season? Am I right?

[RDM]

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Happy February to all!!  Let's keep this thread clean and on topic, sticking only to model discussions and anything relevant to that or to climatology.  Mods, please move any banter over to the main medium range thread where it belongs...thanks!! 

Noted sarcasm on target.  Dunno what happened in the main thread the last few days.  The sad outlook for sn hardly justifies filling it it up with what's akin to banter.  The banter of repeated postings of percentage maps and other "stuff" such as ski trips as a thin attempt to put lipstick on a pig overshadows the occasional learning opportunity from the posts that are worthwhile.  

Realize the outlook is bleak, but if there's nothing to report, we gotta preserve at least some minimal standards...  When you see there's 30+ unread posts in the medium range and get hope there may be something new worthwhile, it's a real letdown when you read through them only to discover the majority of the posts should be here...  Give the mods a break please.

[ers-wxman1]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Happy last month of met winter, weenies!

Time to bust out the shorts and tank tops. You’ll have to go to Mount Washington to find meaningful snow in that pattern.

[aldie 22]

I'm on the edge of my seat waiting to hear how the good looks won't pan out

[WinterWxLuvr]

20 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm on the edge of my seat waiting to hear how the good looks won't pan out

Today was the day. We will look back on this and realize it to be so.

[Stormfly]

14 hours ago, George BM said:

The reality of the matter is, it will be triple digit heat at midnight and all that will just dissipate into a few gusty thundershowers by the time it reaches 95.

2012 was a fluke for sure.

If you really want to see BIG storms and not move, the best best is move the mountains. 

Imagine if the Appalachians weren't there at all and it was flat from the coast all the way to the Rockies.  Now I think we'd see some weather, right?

Thing is with severe, even with decent lines, it's never a perfect line where everyone gets nailed.  The 2012 Derecho was like that here.  Lots of lightning but the real activity was to our south.  And not far away either.

Our best (lightning) seems from cells that just happen to score a hit right overhead.  Otherwise it seems to just fizzle out before reaching us.  Maybe it's that Columbia Gas pipeline!

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I just can’t resist when a mention of that storm comes up. Just got through reading and watching some video on it. We call it the storm of the century but it may well have been the storm of the millennium.

Watched the lead in to that storm for about a week on the Weather Channel. Came oh so close to buying plane tickets back to visit my mother in Catonsville. But work and the thought of spending big bucks on last minute plane tickets stopped me. In hindsight I wish I had. The dynamics of the storm is very likely a once in a lifetime event. One thing that disappointed me though was seeing a good chunk of the DC/Balt metro turn over to ice for an extended period of time. Think about the only other storm that I missed that comes close on regret is the 82 storm when I was in college down at Georgia Tech.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 hours ago, RDM said:

Noted sarcasm on target.  Dunno what happened in the main thread the last few days.  The sad outlook for sn hardly justifies filling it it up with what's akin to banter.  The banter of repeated postings of percentage maps and other "stuff" such as ski trips as a thin attempt to put lipstick on a pig overshadows the occasional learning opportunity from the posts that are worthwhile.  

Realize the outlook is bleak, but if there's nothing to report, we gotta preserve at least some minimal standards...  When you see there's 30+ unread posts in the medium range and get hope there may be something new worthwhile, it's a real letdown when you read through them only to discover the majority of the posts should be here...  Give the mods a break please.

Yup, sarcasm and snark fully intended on my post up there!  Thanks for appreciating it!  But yeah, it is annoying to see a bunch of new posts in the model/long range thread only to realize 99% of them are banter-like complaining.  There definitely is no putting lipstick on the pig that is our current winter situation!  Can we at least make bacon from that pig (mmmm, baaaacon!)?? 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Happy last month of met winter, weenies!

 

Nice change to your avatar there!  Buying yourself some nice Cubans with all the cash you've made on the new Panic Room suites, ballroom, casino, and bar, I see??

[George BM]

5 hours ago, Zanclidae said:

The reality of the matter is, it will be triple digit heat at midnight and all that will just dissipate into a few gusty thundershowers by the time it reaches 95.

2012 was a fluke for sure.

If you really want to see BIG storms and not move, the best best is move the mountains. 

Imagine if the Appalachians weren't there at all and it was flat from the coast all the way to the Rockies.  Now I think we'd see some weather, right?

Thing is with severe, even with decent lines, it's never a perfect line where everyone gets nailed.  The 2012 Derecho was like that here.  Lots of lightning but the real activity was to our south.  And not far away either.

Our best (lightning) seems from cells that just happen to score a hit right overhead.  Otherwise it seems to just fizzle out before reaching us.  Maybe it's that Columbia Gas pipeline!

In any other case of severe potential that we’ve had in recent years around here I too would be cautious about jumping all in on a severe threat in these parts. But today is different… very different.

I very highly doubt that this line of storms will fizzle out or even weaken much at all as they move in. In fact, they may very well do the opposite.

Yes, legit severe is DEFINITELY extremely hard to get in these parts. But we are into the low/mid 90’s with dewpoints into the mid 70’s everywhere now. There is already a confirmed large tornado with the southern supercell, the northern Montgomery county supercell already has signs of strong rotation. Also, based on the 20z mesoscale analysis mid-level lapse rates are around 7.5C/km yielding MLCAPE of 4000+ J/kg everywhere.

The biggest thing for me to note is that low-level lapse rates are steep (near 9C/km) now. The main line of storms approaching from the west is steamrolling it east at around 65mph and is moving perpendicular to the flow. Now with those steep low-level lapse rates that I just mentioned downdraft winds will easily be mixed down to the surface. So, a lot of areas should see max wind gusts of at least 65mph. BUT… with decent downdraft CAPE as well (1000-1300+ J/kg) coupled with the very strong to extreme instability and high PW values (1.75”+) we could see strong downbursts bring down much stronger wind gusts on a more local basis.

Now as for the line of storms holding together through our region, effective bulk shear is strong for this time of year (around 50kts). This will allow the storms to remain very well organized and perhaps even strengthen a bit as the get east of the mountains and into the highest CAPE. Low-level shear is very decent for the time of year as well (effective SRH of 150-300m2/s2) hence the tornadic supercells developing ahead of the main line of storms. A few QLCS tornadoes are also possible with the main line.

This is the best that I’ve felt about a severe threat in these parts in a long time… perhaps even “ever”.

I just very glad that we finally seem like we’re going to score a bigly areawide severe event. Even work has brought @WxWatcher007 back to DC for this one.

However, RIP this afternoon's and evening's rush hour though. 

 

BTW, Here's the new 2000z Convective Outlook from NWS George BM headquarters:

2000z update

Mid-Atlantic region:

A few supercells have developed within the last hour or so affecting the WV panhandle, northern/central VA and northern MD. These storms could become tornadic with a strong tornado not out of the question given the 150-300m2/s2 effective SRH with very large hail and severe winds also a threat with these storms. The main line of storms associated with the severe MCS/derecho now stretch from PA through western MD and eastern WV and is now moving over the mountains and into northern and western VA and is moving east at around 55kts. This line may further strengthen as it moves east of the mountains into an airmass with MLCAPE of 4000+J/kg, 1000-1200+J/kg DCAPE and effective bulk-shear of around 50kts. Widespread severe winds w/ some significantly severe gusts, severe hail and a few QLCS tornadoes will be the main threat with these storms through the afternoon and evening hours before they all move out into the Atlantic by 2z.

Tornado: 10% (Enhanced)

Wind: 45% hatched (Moderate)

Hail: 30% hatched (Enhanced)

 

The threat for this upcoming Saturday also looks very decent for our standards especially near the MD/PA border. What a fun week of severe weather tracking.

[RevWarReenactor]

The guidance was so bad the only place for it to go was to get better....but is this another tease?

I think someone is going to get blasted with this gradient pattern, probable not here, but wherever it is, is where I am headed.

[Stormfly]

I just want to see legit thundersnow!  Only witnessed it once in my lifetime.  Sure there have been boomers, sky lighting up and rumbles while snowing.

But when you experience true zero vis  from snow and lightning with near instantaneous thunder, it's quite the shocker.

Only thing better would be a lightning wrapped snownado!

[RDM]

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yup, sarcasm and snark fully intended on my post up there!  Thanks for appreciating it!  But yeah, it is annoying to see a bunch of new posts in the model/long range thread only to realize 99% of them are banter-like complaining.  There definitely is no putting lipstick on the pig that is our current winter situation!  Can we at least make bacon from that pig (mmmm, baaaacon!)?? 

ROTFLMAO - Yup, no matter how much shellack you put on a turd, it still stinks to high heaven.  

Speaking of bacon, if you've never been to Vienna, Austria it's interesting to note they have a particular affinity for bacon.  Way back when the Suleiman laid siege to Vienna the Austrians developed a slick way of testing for internal spies.  At every planning meeting they had everyone eat some bacon as a test.  To this day, Vienna strongly resents what the Ottomans did on multiple occasions (they were especially brutal sieges) and bacon is a relished delicacy with very special meaning.  

[CAPE]

Yep. About right.

[Bob Chill]

54 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

@Bob Chill . I know u lived in Colorado for a while . I'm thinking of booking a 3 or 4 night trip in a couple weeks in Vail. Do you know of any particular hotels in that area that you recommend are decent and won't break the bank . A bar in hotel is a must and a jacuzzi would be nice .Any guidance would be great .

This is just imho... Vail is actually a crappy place for being a weenie. Views suck until you get up near the top of the gondola. Vail also sits right on I70 and that detracts from the rockies experience. Lastly, Vail village is only at 8k feet. Seems high but it isnt. The valley doesn't get nearly as much snow as the upper elevations. I was never impressed with Vail as a whole. My season pass allowed 10 days a year skiing and I usually used them up just cuz but I always found the skiing at A Basin, Breckenridge, and Keystone to be better on average. 

Here's my best advice... Consider staying in Breck, Silverthorne, Frisco, or Dillon (all 4 are within 90 minutes from the airport. Incredible views of the 10 Mile and/or Gore ranges and Continental divide. Breck is a really fun town with exactly the party atmoshpere you're prob looking for and massive views in all directions. 9,600' elevation at the base and that makes a big difference in snow totals compared to the vail valley. If budget is a high priority then stay in Silverthorne/Frisco/Dillon. Dillon will have the best panoramic views but only slightly more than the others. 

One thing that you have to do when driving from the airport is to take hwy 6 over loveland pass and skip the tunnel. Adds 30 mins to the trip unless you spend an hour at the parking area at the top of the pass.... because the alpine environment (12k'+) and views of the divide are truly mind blowing. I used to take the pass on trips to or from Denver every time. It's an addicting place and you will never forget it.

If you go then make sure you take pictures and post them here. I'll stare at them daily and can name almost every peak. If you plan on driving around then do a loop over Hoosier and Freemont pass. It takes less than 2 hours and there are an insane number of amazing views. You'll see the highest peak in CO (mt elbert) as well as at least 12 other 14k'+ peaks during the loop. 

One last thing... there's a snowmobile rental operation near the top of Freemont pass. It's not just a guided trip. You get to rip all over the place. No speed limits... open areas you can do 50-60mph. Colorado is pretty lenient on liability stuff. You get hurt and it's all on you so snowmobile ops don't limit you beyond staying out of avalanche zones...

[Bob Chill]

39 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

@Bob Chillwow! I so appreciate you taking the time . This is a huge help. I got lots to look into.   Your A ok with me . I don't care what Ji says about ya

No prob man. Extracting all the memories for my post put me in a really good mood. Feb/Mar are the 2 snowiest months. 4 day window is tight. Odds favor an event during that time. Eiether way there will be at least 3' on the ground in most places above 9500'. Loveland will have 10'+ snow walls in some places. Skiers and snowboarders build gap jumps over the highway. Lol

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I absolutely love Colorado. Such a gorgeous state. The west is magnificent.

Yup....heading out there soon. Maybe next weekend. Might try Aspen this time. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

@Bob Chill . I know u lived in Colorado for a while . I'm thinking of booking a 3 or 4 night trip in a couple weeks in Vail. Do you know of any particular hotels in that area that you recommend are decent and won't break the bank . A bar in hotel is a must and a jacuzzi would be nice .Any guidance would be great .

Ive been to CO about 20 times. Have family in Denver and go skiing there a lot. I agree with everything Bob said. If you do decide on Vail, I often stay in Avon which is 15 minutes up 70 from Vail and has some nice hotels for much less. Beaver Creek resort is also right there. Are you going to ski/board?  

[nj2va]

I’m ready for 70s in March. Let’s do it. 

[MillvilleWx]

If anyone wants to see snow soon, you might be able to come visit my area or the central panhandle. Looks like something appetizing could be brewing for late-Tuesday into Wednesday. Pretty stoked.


.

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

I’m ready for 70s in March. Let’s do it. 

We ARE getting 70s NOW! LOLZ

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

No prob man. Extracting all the memories for my post put me in a really good mood. Feb/Mar are the 2 snowiest months. 4 day window is tight. Odds favor an event during that time. Eiether way there will be at least 3' on the ground in most places above 9500'. Loveland will have 10'+ snow walls in some places. Skiers and snowboarders build gap jumps over the highway. Lol

Man I have GOT to go see that! I'll dig so damn much snow, I'll build em a hell of a gap jump!

[Stormfly]

90s in March then!

Anyone remember March 01, 1980?  Nice six inch snowstorm...

Then exactly a week later we were in the upper 70s, only snow remaining was the usual (snow) mountains in the shopping center lots.  Some areas had severe, we got marble sized hail and a brief 50mph gust before it was all over.

[George BM]

4 hours ago, Zanclidae said:

90s in March then!

Anyone remember March 01, 1980?  Nice six inch snowstorm...

Then exactly a week later we were in the upper 70s, only snow remaining was the usual (snow) mountains in the shopping center lots.  Some areas had severe, we got marble sized hail and a brief 50mph gust before it was all over.

Neat. Was this at the same place that you lived during "The Spooky Scary Goose Whiteout" nearly 5 years later?

[wxdude64]

11 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

@Bob Chill . I know u lived in Colorado for a while . I'm thinking of booking a 3 or 4 night trip in a couple weeks in Vail. Do you know of any particular hotels in that area that you recommend are decent and won't break the bank . A bar in hotel is a must and a jacuzzi would be nice .Any guidance would be great .

I'll second Bob's picks. I go there 30-40 days a year now. It is an awesome (but sadly crowded) place. DEFINITELY do the snowmobiling, I highly recommend!! Stay in Dillion or Silverthorne, places are cheaper than Breck. You can get around in a car, but traffic in ski season isn't fun. They have free buses that run 6am-11pm county wide. Most run on a 15 or 30 minute schedule if you don't wish to drive. The pass over 6 is as he describes, beautiful. Copper can be a pain to get to, they are right off 70 and I have seen both off lanes backed up onto 70 with people trying to get in during the AM. Keystone and Breck  have a nice mix of runs, if you are a good skier Abasin can provide some fun and challenging runs. 

[aldie 22]

The rat on PA just said spring starts on Monday