ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: How is the ICON, west too? I didn’t bother looking at it. I almost never do. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Modfan2 said: How is the ICON, west too? Came about a half a county south of 12z on the snow maps with the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Everyone go to NNE this weekend so the whining can stop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: 60-72h RGEM cooled quite a bit from 12z. Prob the only colder trend I’ve seen all day...and it’s clown range RGEM. That’s very comforting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 We can’t even do cold Rainers anymore. BOX talking humid Round 2 (Thursday night into Friday): Soaking rain with potential downpours and localized flooding. There may even be a rumble of thunder. After a mild & muggy start, falling temperatures through the day. M 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: We can’t even do cold Rainers anymore. BOX talking humid Round 2 (Thursday night into Friday): Soaking rain with potential downpours and localized flooding. There may even be a rumble of thunder. After a mild & muggy start, falling temperatures through the day. M I would enjoy a 96 style cutter. It’s been boring AF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I would enjoy a 96 style cutter. It’s been boring AF. I’d just like to understand why this isn’t shearing like you guys thought yesterday it would. Something is going on this winter that models and people just aren’t seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 At least 11/12 there wasn’t much to track. Just closed the shades easily without a second peek. This winter has been a constant opening and closing of the shades on practically a daily basis peeking frantically...to no avail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: At least 11/12 there wasn’t much to track. Just closed the shades easily without a second peek. This winter has been a constant opening and closing of the shades on practically a daily basis peeking frantically...to no avail. So true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d just like to understand why this isn’t shearing like you guys thought yesterday it would. Something is going on this winter that models and people just aren’t seeing I really think there’s a correlation to seasonal snowfall and people’s opinion of how the models are doing. The models weren’t great in 2015 with a lot of late changes (favorable to E.NE) and grossly under-estimated a couple of those storms... but no one was complaining about them then. The problem right now is folks are grasping onto low probability day 5 progs and it just builds into the frustration. The models are the same tools we’ve been using for years. We’ve all shoveled an enormous amount of Day 5 snowfall over the past 5 years. There were like 2-3 years there where I’d be in the jackpot at day 5 only to see another 12+ hit in SNE at game time. I thought the models were terrible then, ha. When mythical snow that hasn’t fallen gets taken away, we blame the models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Kevin I think we all mentioned that the setup was tenuous. I even said yesterday that I wasn’t sure if it would be progressive given the overall H5 look. It still could be more progressive, I don’t know......but right now I’m not sure I would favor it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I really think there’s a correlation to seasonal snowfall and people’s opinion of how the models are doing. The models weren’t great in 2015 with a lot of late changes (favorable to E.NE) and grossly under-estimated a couple of those storms... but no one was complaining about them then. The problem right now is folks are grasping onto low probability day 5 progs and it just builds into the frustration. The models are the same tools we’ve been using for years. We’ve all shoveled an enormous amount of Day 5 snowfall over the past 5 years. There were like 2-3 years there where I’d be in the jackpot at day 5 only to see another 12+ hit in SNE at game time. I thought the models were terrible then, ha. When mythical snow that hasn’t fallen gets taken away, we blame the models. I get what you’re saying but, to me, it’s more so about good patterns on typically strong mid to long range models vaporizing before us which has increased/added the anxiety on each short to mid range event trending more unfavorably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin I think we all mentioned that the setup was tenuous. I even said yesterday that I wasn’t sure if it would be progressive given the overall H5 look. It still could be more progressive, I don’t know......but right now I’m not sure I would favor it. This year you have to favor warmest and not snowy outcomes. What can go wrong does and outperforms itself. My point is there’s something globally/ atmosphericically this winter that all of us and modeling has missed or is missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: This year you have to favor warmest and not snowy outcomes. What can go wrong does and outperforms itself. My point is there’s so globally/ atmosphericically this winter that all of us and modeling has missed or is missing. Tippy and his beloved Hadley Cell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Tippy and his beloved Hadley Cell. That probably does have some disturbing validity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 18z euro came in a little less amped. Not a massive change from 12z but another one or two like that and we’re looking pretty darned wintry again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro came in a little less amped. Not a massive change from 12z but another one or two like that and we’re looking pretty darned wintry again. The majority of this in Kevs hood is frozen sans a tenth or 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro came in a little less amped. Not a massive change from 12z but another one or two like that and we’re looking pretty darned wintry again. Ever the optimist. Or a couple ticks the other way and we’re saying congrats PF and Dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This year you have to favor warmest and not snowy outcomes. What can go wrong does and outperforms itself. My point is there’s something globally/ atmosphericically this winter that all of us and modeling has missed or is missing. What have they/we missed though? Like missed as in we shouldn't even be entertaining thoughts of wintry weather and the models should never even show those day 5 solutions? It's a winter with a mean western trough and good southeast ridging. Occasionally we get a some confluence to the north that helps New England but by and far it's not a good overall pattern for deep winter in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The majority of this in Kevs hood is frozen sans a tenth or 2 The problem is round 2 which BOX had mild n muggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The majority of this in Kevs hood is frozen sans a tenth or 2 EURO gives him his ice storm with a good half inch of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d just like to understand why this isn’t shearing like you guys thought yesterday it would. Something is going on this winter that models and people just aren’t seeing You need to read Tip’s posts all the way through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 59 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Tippy and his beloved Hadley Cell. Although a lot of it is above my knowledge Tip’s posts are pretty informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What have they/we missed though? Like missed as in we shouldn't even be entertaining thoughts of wintry weather and the models should never even show those day 5 solutions? It's a winter with a mean western trough and good southeast ridging. Occasionally we get a some confluence to the north that helps New England but by and far it's not a good overall pattern for deep winter in the east. Yeah. It’s already a tricky setup when you have a western trough. Sometimes it’s oriented such that you cash in with SWFE, and sometimes it’s more of a deep trough that ejects enough s/w energy for cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/02/first-call-two-part-storm-system.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: At least 11/12 there wasn’t much to track. Just closed the shades easily without a second peek. This winter has been a constant opening and closing of the shades on practically a daily basis peeking frantically...to no avail. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 24 minutes ago, powderfreak said: EURO gives him his ice storm with a good half inch of ZR. If the Euro had gotten one storm correct all winter, I’d be somewhat excited. 2 correct and I’d be hyping. Alas, I’m just going to bed sad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 thats pretty snowy down to the coast of CT/RI/extreme SE MA. i'm not convinced we even see a dusting down here before mix/liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 37 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ever the optimist. Or a couple ticks the other way and we’re saying congrats PF and Dryslot. I didn’t say I believed that’s what would happen. Just that it gets a lot more interesting if it does. If it trends the other way and goes warmer, it merely goes from meh to total snoozer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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