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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

They aren’t though.  Folks are just latching on to the scenarios they want and then get disappointed.  

Like I’m not going to say they are terrible because two runs of the GFS gave me 2 feet at day 5.  You have to throw out the outliers.  

When was the last time the NYC suburbs saw a significant icestorm?  You’d have to see 3 days of runs like that to even entertain that idea.

All the models have been awful though, even the Euro has been bad with storms this winter. 

I do completely agree with you though to think of climo/setups when considering likely outcomes  more than what models are spitting out

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

They aren’t though.  Folks are just latching on to the scenarios they want and then get disappointed.  

Like I’m not going to say they are terrible because two runs of the GFS gave me 2 feet at day 5.  You have to throw out the outliers.  

When was the last time the NYC suburbs saw a significant icestorm?  You’d have to see 3 days of runs like that to even entertain that idea.

1953?

12z GFS changed a nice hit to muckymess all the way to Moosehead.  D5 storms have been adept at slip-sliding away.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS word? I’m assuming it rained into Mained since there was no mention?

Looked a bit further NW with the Friday wave than the EURO op.  Got a mix just north of here then back to snow. 

Cut snowfall by about 1" everywhere in New England on the mean. 

Real nice follow up wave at Day 6-7 for SNE lol. 

 

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Yeah ...this seasonal trend/persistent modeling correction behavior is really something...  One aspect I'm noticing is that the ridge in the west ... or what ridging is west, is really more situated partially lapsed over the west coast/ E Pac in the means.  

That's too far west. Almost like a west-based +PNA, so the PNAP pattern over the U.S. is skewed out of sync just enough.  The natural R wave length argument is actually west... so these east mid range modeling tendencies may be what's really wrong all along. If that's the case ..this is probably a 40 F winter.

I've postulated that with fast flow, that does allow for some 'stretching' in the west-to-east coordinate, and that may be what the models are doing in the mid/extended range, but not sure. I'm not sure why it's right around 60 to 84 hours out ( or 96..etc), right abouts in there we get these corrections back NW.  Thing is... one storm did to this to us in the relaxed period that lasted some 10 days earlier this month too - .  

 

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31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looked a bit further NW with the Friday wave than the EURO op.  Got a mix just north of here then back to snow. 

Cut snowfall by about 1" everywhere in New England on the mean. 

Real nice follow up wave at Day 6-7 for SNE lol. 

 

When Will doesn’t comment, its generally bad news 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When I’m home in AM I can look.. but this job I’m appointment to appointment all day. I stay over if in Maine or VT. Company car . Still have truck too

Look at the plus-you see snow cover!  I’ll jealous of my daughter in northern VT.

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Can I root for the later starting of whatever will fall that the NAM has for Thursday morning please?

Grandparents are taking their granddaughter (And her parents) to Disney and our flight leaves at 7:50 am out of Logan.

Seems flights should be OK regardless of what falls, but I'd rather not deal with a slushy drive to KBOS at 5:30 am...

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