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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz
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Just now, powderfreak said:

My gut says it’s more diffuse and a bit further north.  It’s pretty crazy to have a 970s low cutting right through New England in early February.

Yeah initially the thrust might be to the west with the heavy snow, heavy precip for you maybe sleet as that happens… But then as that moves back east you should really rack up good for several hours.

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Steady frzra our there currently 

from BTV....more frzra AND more snow , insane  

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1238 AM EST Friday...The forecast remains quite
challenging tonight and had to make several changes based on the
latest model guidance and observations. Thermal profiles on
both the global and high resolution members show a +5 to +7
degree warm nose pretty much anywhere east of the St. Lawrence
Valley. Because of this, freezing rain was added to the grids
through the overnight hours with up to a tenth of an inch of
freezing rain possible before the freezing rain changes over to
snow during the early morning hours. As it stands, it looks like
freezing rain will change over to snow between 14Z and 15Z for
Burlington, 17Z to 18Z for Montpelier and after 18Z for far
southern Vermont. Freezing rain amounts across southern Vermont
have been increased to 0.25 to 0.40 inches in response the delay
in precipitation changing over to snow this afternoon. Actually
ended up bumping up snowfall totals across northern New York and
northern Vermont based on the latest guidance. More information
to follow in the routine update between 3 and 4 AM.
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Today's 3-5 (yesterday's late forecast) is now 1-3, and my guess is a tenth or 2 of zr, 1/2" IP, then a windblown dusting and good-bye.  A warned event that might not even reach advisory criteria.  Maybe about the 10th power outage since the equinox thanks to the NW gales - can't recall a cold season with even 3 in our 21+ years here.

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Anddddd we snow :) 
coming down at a good clip already , juicy  flakes 

 

from BTV they were on it 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 610 AM EST Friday...It`s finally the moment we have been
waiting for over the past several days as the warm nose is
beginning to decay and cold air is beginning to spill into
northern New York. We have seen the boundary between snow and
freezing rain advance about 30-40 miles over the past two hours
and it`s just a matter of time until this line works into
northern and central Vermont.

 

 

 

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