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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz
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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

With another 1.5 to 2 qpf for Stowe on 18z models. Heavy heavy

It’ll be interesting for sure.  

Whatever happens, the models are all showing 1.0+” QPF in 12-hrs tomorrow.  

Scalping sleet followed by pounding snow?  I’m not sure I remember the models so adamant for days on an axis of ridiculous precip.  

12-hour QPF...not storm total to go.

A9FFA879-3E84-4FFE-80A5-AA62732391FC.thumb.png.24ded841de17cc348c60b687294a7736.png

AB53109A-5574-44E0-B8A3-9B601DECD87B.thumb.png.a35d952e602e1faa2202e83b62d0c9a3.png

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’ll be interesting for sure.  

Whatever happens, the models are all showing 1.0+” QPF in 12-hrs tomorrow.  

Scalping sleet followed by pounding snow?  I’m not sure I remember the models so adamant for days on an axis of ridiculous precip.  

12-hour QPF...not storm total to go.

A9FFA879-3E84-4FFE-80A5-AA62732391FC.thumb.png.24ded841de17cc348c60b687294a7736.png

AB53109A-5574-44E0-B8A3-9B601DECD87B.thumb.png.a35d952e602e1faa2202e83b62d0c9a3.png

There is tremendous forcing. 60kts of mid level flow converging and deforming over your fanny. That looks like sleet (maybe very heavy UP for a time) going to a blizzard with falling temps. Wish we were there. 

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2 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

3K NAM has a 930mb low SE of the cape. Toss that model as far as you can for this event...

C8FFEFF1-6DE7-4D2E-BED1-E00C13F4427E.png

The difference between the NAM3km and the NAM12km/32km at 500hPa is pretty extreme. By now, you'd expect some consistency or at least a realistic simulation (from the NAM3km). I definitely agree with you... Toss the NAM3km.

nam3km_z500_vort_us_24.png

namconus_z500_vort_us_24.png

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53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I actually remember you posting about that event.  Hopefully you grab some ice tonight too.  

Big NW winds after the ice that night took down a few . There was about .4 -.5 ice. Our hilltop is good for a few micro climate ice events a year. This ones perfect example . No ice under 800 feet 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

Since we (sne) can't do most winter wx right this season...snow, ice, rain/flooding...maybe we can maximize our wind damage? Friday looks like a pretty damaging day, esp. SE.

I created this so the chat/obs wouldn't get lost in a sea of NNE snow prance, maple syrup tap, snowmobiling posts

I doubt they will make it up to SNH? Maybe advisory? 

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21 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

The difference between the NAM3km and the NAM12km/32km at 500hPa is pretty extreme. By now, you'd expect some consistency or at least a realistic simulation (from the NAM3km). I definitely agree with you... Toss the NAM3km.

nam3km_z500_vort_us_24.png

namconus_z500_vort_us_24.png

Yup. I've only been looking at the 12k for this system since yesterday for the NAM products. This thread from Jack Sillin yesterday is a good read on how the 3K is handling this system erroneously.

 

GA and SC getting hammered right now as well, those are some FFW covering huge areas tonight.

 

IMG_9107.PNG

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26.9F  (High for the day)

Light snow grains and freezing drizzle.

Just went outside and everything is coated with a thin layer of ice.  Don't know how tomorrow will play out.  I expect freezing rain transitioning to snow.  Evergreens already have snow on them from last nights 3.75" so I assume freezing rain mixing in with the snow will add to load.  Then to finish it off with a few inches of snow and wind will make for an interesting evening.  I got extra gas for the generator and heat by wood so I should be all set.  Maybe this will not be a big deal but its not too often a 970mb low passes close by.

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