February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Some schools around here were delayed...from cold rain. 

Some schools here are closed (including our daughter’s and pretty much every one bordering our town).  I have a delayed opening

[HoarfrostHubb]

14 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Rt 2, 140, 31, 12, 2A.....all horrible on my ride in.  Heavy thick sleet.  Little less down here in FIT than at my house. 

Can’t wait for that commute

[Mips]

1.5'"  in the early stages of crusty.  

Somethings still falling but too light to ID as snow flakes.   Wimpy sleet.

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Wave 2 keeps ticking further NW ea model run, It can stop anytime now.

Ice baby, ice!

[gonegalt]

4"-8" tidday means great sledding on the river. Already snowing. Tomorrow is another story with copious (I love that word) snows all day.

I like winter so much, I moved there!

 

[Whineminster]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ZR and 29 here but rising steadily. 

So the ice threat is all done? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Some schools here are closed (including our daughter’s and pretty much every one bordering our town).  I have a delayed opening

Who provides these schools with the forecasts..DIT?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Who provides these schools with the forecasts..DIT?

Around here delays were warranted due to road conditions but the cancellations are baffling.  Oh' well, I'll stay home with the kid and get some housework done.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Who provides these schools with the forecasts..DIT?

The roads are a mess from what friends are telling me.   Large area towns with long empty roads and small DPWs.   Takes them a while to salt.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The roads are a mess from what friends are telling me.   Large area towns with long empty roads and small DPWs.   Takes them a while to salt.  

I was referencing my area more so as there is no reason for delays here but I’m asking you because you would know where schools get their forecasts from. Privately or from the NWS?

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I was referencing my area more so as there is no reason for delays here but I’m asking you because you would know where schools get their forecasts from. Privately or from the NWS?

Ours uses the DPW and doesn’t really use a forecasting service. The DPW does though. Not sure who they use though. 

[toller65]

Already approaching max 2-day GYX 10% probability forecast total for PWM of 4"

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[HimoorWx]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

0.6.  Now with rain.  The winter of SNE’s discontent....

Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this sun of York;
And all the clouds that lour'd upon our house
In the deep bosom of the ocean buried.

[Whineminster]

44 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Can’t wait for that commute

lol.  I'm on all those roads for very short distances, like a mile each. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

25 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ours uses the DPW and doesn’t really use a forecasting service. The DPW does though. Not sure who they use though. 

 

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

He has to be right, there is a big snowflake over NE!

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

A red cold front. Sounds like our fronts this year. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's interesting that this system spent about two or three cycles where it adjusted SE across all guidance, in a lead time range where no other system this year has been able to exhibit that behavior in guidance'  They've all started going back NW earlier on - but of course still too late to have saved the hopefuls from their own expectation monsters.   

Anyway, it's like in a creepy sense of it, the models knew we were onto the seasonal trend and came up with a way to taunt by introducing that SE faux attempt, anyway.   haha.  

Seriously, I do still think there is a potential here to not see that surface low actually do what these guidance' are showing by slicing from ~ White Plains NY to PSM like that.  Here's the rub ...if these eye-roller/tossed NAM solutions show some genius there by squeezing a surface low ...oblonging it around the interior BL resistance ( not an altogether poorly theorized conjecture by that particular guidance regardless of the court of public opinion btw ), it may not mean 30 F icing anyway.  The mechanics may in fact decouple from the lower 3K of this thing and glide over the top of 35 F air ... It's a matter of density/viscosity in cyclonic inhibition and can happen anywhere in the temperature spectrum.  

My guess on the way this winter season seems to be 'spooky action at a distance' running out of it's way to personally violate the bums of anyone that dare's the impertinent dream of wonder and fun... my guess is that we will prove that the low does not go that far NW, while simultaneously "freezing" at 33.1 F 

But, the flow is fast ... and the GGEM is lining up two winter storms thru D10 ..roughly 3 day periodicity.  The Euro's got 'em too, but it doesn't have the cold in the lower troposphere and thus it's lower mean polar boundary is situated N and warm sectors/threatens those.  The GFS splits the difference.   Neither of these models have really blown us away this season for 'special insight' beyond short ranges so the take away from proving their fallibility is that ( imho ) the GGEM has just as much f'n right to be correct as the others.  Bottom line ...things to watch for so not a boring pattern beyond whatever really happens from this.  

I also think the wind potential in this event isn't getting nearly the coverage it needs.   Whether this low does do the less theoretically reconciled White Plains to PSM transit -vs- being blobbed around the BL resistance in the interior... in either scenario, the arriving motion of the total system offsets the PGF response associated with the deepening low pressure, such that we subtract the rapid storm motion from the velocity of the wind as an index finger rule. But, that has to be added back on the back side when the low pulls rapidly away toward later Friday. And it would be worse during those add-back times, because the low will have deepened more... ( Euro was 968mb at PSM I believe!) The 06z NAM shows a single interval pulse to 36 kts at Logan from the WSW ... There's a pretty whopper isallobaric wind potential here where restoring exceeds the PGF and we may get a problem where ever there is an ice load say southern VT/NH ... 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Some schools around here were delayed...from cold rain. 

LOL.   CT is so ridiculous with this stuff. CT DOT was riming I-95 last night  (For 38 and rain)  Silly waste of money

[tamarack]

At 6:30 cleared 1.5" of 20:1 fluff from the board, had really pretty sparkling dendrites floating down at 5 AM.  No issues with the commute to Augusta, where it's been light/very light SN, maybe 1/2" in the 2 hours since getting here.

[amarshall]

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL.   CT is so ridiculous with this stuff. CT DOT was riming I-95 last night  (For 38 and rain)  Silly waste of money

DOTs are use it or lose it for their budgets next year.   They'll be out sanding and salting like the hammers of hell for any minor event from here on out. 

[amarshall]

1 hour ago, toller65 said:

Already approaching max 2-day GYX 10% probability forecast total for PWM of 4"

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 

Great news for ski areas. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, amarshall said:

DOTs are use it or lose it for their budgets next year.   They'll be out sanding and salting like the hammers of hell for any minor event from here on out. 

Yes, They have to use it, Waste of money or not or you get your budget cut then screwed the next winter if its a bad one and you run out of product before it ends.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I saw some RAP runs that take the low thru MPV VT lol, that would be the last lol to screw PF 

[Sugarloaf1989]

31F here with freezing drizzle.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

At least it looks Wintry for a day.

1.5” snow/sleet and about .05” ice.

light FZRA 31.5

 

[Organizing Low]

1.5 inches here on the front end
 not much to write home about  as first part underperforms  The 3-5 forecast 

though the model trends were  all over it

 

time for some sleep  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Something fairly obvious ..tho I wasn't giving it enough consideration and probably should feel a little silly ... 

If you look at WPC's current sfc product found here:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif 

... the surface high pressure is receding due-east.  That does mean the BL resistance is reducing in time. 

Yeah, I was was tacitly aware of this... but, looking at this and then factoring in the incredible wind max anomaly blasing off the MA .. maybe should have given it more respect. I mean the left exit region of that super-jet does partially clip roughly NYC-to BOS and points SE with incredible 100 to 130 kt wind at 500 mb ...etc.. 

This thing has just failed to thread the needle for us. That's the rub - you don't got much wiggle room with darts at mid range guidance/lead times. It could certainly have all situated just 100 mile E in whole-scale synopsis, but ...that's just the breaks.  The western ridge is ultimatley too far west...it's probably just a function of anomalous jet level velocities everywhere, that this flow is 'stretched' enough to bring this thing along it's total deep layer positioning at all.. Because technically the more typical r-wave length argument should have run this thing up through Buffalo. But then again ...150 kt wind maxes that are huge in also volumetric atmospheric mass transport...are not that common at 500 mb either so.. .we get what we get given the limitation integrating - 

Frankly I don't see how system behavior will be different going forward ... we need a pattern change.   Period. 

 

[wxmanmitch]

2.0" of sleety snow that is now crusted over, 26.7° F. Expecting at least a moderate icing event here over the next 24+ hours. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The meso models didn't exactly move in the right direction to get those bigger snow totals in NNE.  I wonder if GYX dials back their maps a bit this afternoon?