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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz
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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was tossed when it came out. Lol. No other model supported it. 

The main interest for me on this is whether siggy icing happens inland. The snow aspect is garbage. Front end thump looks weak sauce. Prob sleet contaminated anyway. 

I was just going to commiserate how you can almost sense the models are trying to weasel out of doing even that much - I mean...I don't care much for icing above general aesthetic nature of the aftermath under blue sky and sun prism romanticism and shit but ...  I could almost see us getting 1.2" of snow, a lull with meaningless freezing drizzle, then ...nothing happens when the low opens up a faux warm sector over a cold low level that is an odd situation with no lift over top. and we get nothing... 

Notice the 54 hour insult to injury...with wind gusts to 48 mph imparting a flash freeze and one snow flake per minute under street lamps.   that's how your run a sore-butting -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just going to commiserate how you can almost sense the models are trying to weasel out of doing even that much - I mean...I don't care much for icing above general aesthetic nature of the aftermath under blue sky and sun prism romanticism and shit but ...  I could almost see us getting 1.2" of snow, a lull with meaningless freezing drizzle, then ...nothing happens when the low opens up a faux warm sector over a cold low level that is a odd situation with no lift over top. and we get nothing... 

Notice the 54 hour insult to injury...with wind gusts to 48 mph imparting a flash freeze and one snow flake per minute under street lamps.   that's how your run a sore-butting -

Yeah I could see us getting dryslotted for like 18 straight hours while freezing drizzle over the interior and that really heavy qpf stays around the south coast of SNE. That’s been a possibility. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Friday stuff has a PF to Rangeley look when examining the midlevels. It’s trying to collapse SE pretty fast late in the game but I think by the time it does it’s mostly scraps. Maybe a few inches in your ‘hood at the end of it can do it quick enough. 

A few crumbs on that run, I don't need a coastal hugger track here, It was better when it was off of ACK in the eastern GOM, I'm not going to sweat the Nam were still 36hrs+ out for wave 2 and it has moved around some, But im heading to that Rangeley area Saturday so its all good if they get slammed.

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 At this point I have no idea where I stand for school and work schedules etc. 

 Pretty much planning on a two hour school delay but need to account for maybe taking a day off from work if I wake up and there was a snow blitz. 

Yup   3 districts I need to think about for myself, my wife, and daughter.  Hopefully we all have the same thing, whatever the outcome.

 

I did postpone ski club due to rain

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro was real close to pinging even near Stowe. Something to watch, but not like it will knock accumulations back much. 

Oh we definitely ping.  Freezing drizzle and ZR too.  It’s real dry in the snow growth zone tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.... I could see .25-.5” QPF as mix here on the edge of the mid level dry slot.  I bet it mixes to Canada in light returns.

I think we get 12 hours of mixed, pellets, grains, ZR, etc between the better periods of lift.

The craziest part is even taking that out the models have another 1-1.5” QPF.  

 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Oh we definitely ping.  Freezing drizzle and ZR too.  It’s real dry in the snow growth zone tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.... I could see .25-.5” QPF as mix here on the edge of the mid level dry slot.

The craziest part is even taking that out the models have another 1-1.5” QPF.  

 

Soundings were epic Friday aftn there. Some of the models had intense forcing with the low in CT. In fact almost a MAUL look there. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Soundings were epic Friday aftn there. Some of the models had intense forcing with the low in CT. In fact almost a MAUL look there. 

Yeah that’s the time to make hay.  

I think in a general sense it’s 2-4” tomorrow morning, then 12 hours of light mixed precip, followed by 6-12” on Friday....mainly in like 6 hours. 

Call it 8-16” with some mix sandwiched in.

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh we definitely ping.  Freezing drizzle and ZR too.  It’s real dry in the snow growth zone tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.... I could see .25-.5” QPF as mix here on the edge of the mid level dry slot.  I bet it mixes to Canada in light returns.

I think we get 12 hours of mixed, pellets, grains, ZR, etc between the better periods of lift.

The craziest part is even taking that out the models have another 1-1.5” QPF.  

 

Hard sell on .50” of non snow for you. Enjoy your 12+

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21 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hard sell on .50” of non snow for you. Enjoy your 12+

Hopefully!  You know the drill though, gotta think of all scenarios.

The 18z GFS had 0.5” QPF as mixed and 1.5” as snow... total of 2.0” QPF.  So we could see a good mixed period for sure.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

We need more posters like yourself, ha.  You are in Charlotte, right?  

The Champlain Valley looks to take a crosshair on this one too.  Northerly surface drain leading to Champlain Valley Convergence under the mid-level lift could be fun.

Yup, in Charlotte, which I've learned is really pronounced "shalahtt".  While I've learned to love that northerly drain (puts a good east coast CAD to shame), the reverse southerly fire hose is equally impressive when it gets going.

Looks like BTV saw the latest runs and upped the ante.  10-18'' in the WSW now.  Nice.  Work keeps getting in the way of me geeking out...

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lots of downers in here

Blizz what’s going on in here , nobody likes an icer

I don’t think anyone is really being a downer, just being honest. Big ice looks incredibly localized, if it’s going to happen at all. Looks like a lot of rain for SNE and a mixed bag at best in CNE.

This season has beaten the bag out of people. As far as snow goes, everyone knows where this threat is when PF is handwringing over 12” or 24”. If I was most folks, I’d hope the “thump” tonight has a few surprises 

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