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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Waiting? He’s been getting crushed the past several seasons...with like 50” in that Mar 17 fluff bomb lol. 

Yeah... weren’t record depths set either last year or the year before? He’s done fine. Don’t believe the hype.

Glad to see we don’t have to deal with any icing here 

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32 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

My guess is theres a decent tuck at least along the 495 corridor, whether its 33F or 30F remains to be seen. Regradless, qpf may limit big ice

right... we'll be straight proven right about the colder solutions down to a bone chilling 33.8 F

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, yeah...they get a lot of snow. But those true 12-18 (with higher jacks) deformation/fronto bombs are not that common. Further east definitely gets more of those...esp recently. 

So I get the excitement of those. 

Yeah we get plenty of snowfall, but 12"+ events are much more common in SNE.  

I've been hoping for double digits, so anything 10" or greater in this will more than satisfy that itch.  I could still see more mixing than expected or lower ratios bringing 8" of the densest white material ever... but I just like a nice frozen QPF bomb.  We don't do those frozen heavy precip events like SNE does.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s insane, but believable wherever that occurs because the dynamics with this are really impressive.

I love that the mesoscale banding and low level frontogenesis forcing look to be nearly stationary over the northern Champlain Valley (MBY, which is the only thing that really matters) sometime during the day on Friday.  The moisture transport from that jet looks absolutely fantastic.  Could be fun.

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1 minute ago, das said:

I love that the mesoscale banding and low level frontogenesis forcing look to be nearly stationary over the northern Champlain Valley (MBY, which is the only thing that really matters) sometime during the day on Friday.  The moisture transport from that jet looks absolutely fantastic.  Could be fun.

We need more posters like yourself, ha.  You are in Charlotte, right?  

The Champlain Valley looks to take a crosshair on this one too.  Northerly surface drain leading to Champlain Valley Convergence under the mid-level lift could be fun.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That it is with wave 1.

well ...I dunno, the 'wave' identity is getting a bit entropy - it's starting to just look like an extended warm frontal arm with the light snow axis lifted up and stalled near your neck of the woods... back through northern NH/VT... While much of interior SNE lulls for 12 hours. 

Appears the main thrust is a rather potent deepening that looks like it's about to bomb on the mid-Atl to ACK transit - so perhaps similar to the 12z if like 25 to 50 mile S.  We'll see where this goes... I guess there's "some" sort of wave 1 identity but it's really more like squirting out meso circulations rather than a bona fide 'wave 1'

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

well ...I dunno, the 'wave' identity is getting a bit entropy - it's starting to just look like an extended warm frontal arm with the snow axis up hear your neck of the woods... back through northern NH/VT... While much of interior SNE lulls for 12 hours. 

Appears the main thrust is a rather potent deepening that looks like it's about to bomb on the mid-Atl to ACK transit - so perhaps similar to the 12z if like 25 to 50 mile S

Second parts going to be a little more amped then the 12z run, Can already see it @H5

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

So much for the 12z snow. Tossed.

That was tossed when it came out. Lol. No other model supported it. 

The main interest for me on this is whether siggy icing happens inland. The snow aspect is garbage. Front end thump looks weak sauce. Prob sleet contaminated anyway. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was tossed when it came out. Lol. No other model supported it. 

The main interest for me on this is whether siggy icing happens inland. The snow aspect is garbage. Front end thump looks weak sauce. Prob sleet contaminated anyway. 

No matter the track, that looks nasty for Dave verbatim. 

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That was crap here, That SLP tracked further west right over SE MA this run.

The Friday stuff has a PF to Rangeley look when examining the midlevels. It’s trying to collapse SE pretty fast late in the game but I think by the time it does it’s mostly scraps. Maybe a few inches in your ‘hood at the end of it can do it quick enough. 

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