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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz
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I dunno ...I still think it is possible for a NAM -like correction to score the coup here. 

There's reasons for that. But there are reasons to go against too ... I just don't think it's a slam dunk toss because there's some equal weighting - I'll see when the Euro comes out. 

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We had a great storm in November but this will end up being the storm of the season up in N Vermont if the GFS pans out.   But the NaM and euro not so much. 
I will give the GFS credit for being Generally consistent for the better part of 5 days  on this one.  

In any case , Looks like a 2 parter, extended duration event. These days   I only post when there’s potential for something memorable , so I guess I am cautiously optimistic ?   

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop but this keeps trending wetter and wetter.  

Pretty much all the models from the GFS/GGEM/ICON/EURO have 1.75” or more QPF frozen.  

Maybe it does go 12-18”.

Congrats man. You’ve been waiting for one of these for a while. You have plenty of wiggle room....so unless you get married to 18+, you won’t be disappointed. 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop but this keeps trending wetter and wetter.  

Pretty much all the models from the GFS/GGEM/ICON/EURO have 1.75” or more QPF frozen.  GFS and GGEM are 2”+.

Maybe it does go 12-18”.

Dude you’re locked and loaded. We jelly LOL. But enjoy it man.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Waiting? He’s been getting crushed the past several seasons...with like 50” in that Mar 17 fluff bomb lol. 

March ‘17 was great there but that was the last one that really deformed up in N VT?....unless I’m not remembering one from last winter or ‘17-‘18. SNE has had a few since then including Jan ‘18, Mar ‘18 and the 4-6 hour snowbomb over E Ma/RI last year.

 Last year was SWFEs for PF...lots of 6-10 inchers and of course the upslope fluffers. But cmon man, you know as well as I those don’t match those 12-18 (maybe higher) deformation/fronto storms. 

Ill say that your area has def been screwed for a while versus further east in SNE. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

March ‘17 was great there but that was the last one that really deformed up in N VT?....unless I’m not remembering one from last winter or ‘17-‘18. SNE has had a few since then including Jan ‘18, Mar ‘18 and the 4-6 hour snowbomb over E Ma/RI last year.

 Last year was SWFEs for PF...lots of 6-10 inchers and of course the upslope fluffers. But cmon man, you know as well as I those don’t match those 12-18 (maybe higher) deformation/fronto storms. 

Ill say that your area has def been screwed for a while versus further east in SNE. 

I mean if there is one zone that should be routinely crushed, is his. Plus he was shafted earlier this decade...so he’s making up for lost times recently.

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27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is what you dream about. 

Each run as you get closer the EURO keeps ramping it up.  

Up to about 1.75-2” QPF now.  

1E06ABB6-0707-4A2C-A500-7D1ABA47DBC9.thumb.png.ed557134052e3728ca060d0755f798a4.png

Wow 

if this play out those fantasy run from the GFS that caught my attention over The Weekend will be essentially dead on. 
 

great to be in the lolli zone 

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I mean if there is one zone that should be routinely crushed, is his. Plus he was shafted earlier this decade...so he’s making up for lost times recently.

I mean, yeah...they get a lot of snow. But those true 12-18 (with higher jacks) deformation/fronto bombs are not that common. Further east definitely gets more of those...esp recently. 

So I get the excitement of those. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I mean if there is one zone that should be routinely crushed, is his. Plus he was shafted earlier this decade...so he’s making up for lost times recently.

Correlating data from my site, Mansfield at PF’s ~3,000’ plot should be averaging roughly three storm cycles per season with >24”, two per season with >30”, one per season >36”, one per season >40”, and a cycle of >48” about every other season.  I’m not sure if he’s even had a >24” storm cycle yet this season?  I think he’s probably due based on the statistics.

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