dryslot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 The 12z Nam was couple tics colder this run too from the 06z run, So that will help folks further south as it looked to have a better cold press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Theres that 3k NAM with its 958 again with heavy snow over New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: It is . I don’t believe it was that much of a shift . It’s just we are at the point where a slight shift south gets more of us in the decent banding and colder columns It could waffle north and warmer too. I guess the one good thing is that the whole thing is weak and more or less a frontal boundary before the real good dynamics ignite rapid cyclogenesis and move the low north. So if it is weak, you can push that boundary south. On the other hand it could come close to the SNE coast and make this rather uninteresting for many. I'd pay attention north of the pike and NW of 495 for now, but verbatim that is some ice into 128 I think. Just not sure the NAM is correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 19 minutes ago, weathafella said: I talked to my daughter up in BTV last night. She is stoked for the snow-hoping for a snow day though my thoughts are it has to be pretty intense (18+?) for that to happen in northern VT. I think you’d mentioned she’s at UVM? For UVM specifically to call an official snow day/winter weather day closing it typically has to be something very impactful – it’s probably a once-a-decade sort of occurrence. Since a majority of the students can simply walk to class from their dorms or downtown, the travel isn’t a big issue, and the equipment is on hand to handle most storms. It’s more common for individual classes to be cancelled if professors that live out of town can’t get it due to travel issues. Even without official cancellation though, substantial winter storm days often still feel like snow days because people will trim their schedules for travel reasons, and with the ski culture atmosphere around here you’ll find a lot of people prioritizing that and potentially planning their schedule around it. The local primary/secondary schools will certainly call snow days for much less snow, depending on the timing and intensity of the snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ogmios said: On a personnel note between us Canadians I wish they would carry Canadian coverage if you know what I mean, my area is barely on the map with Halifax barely off the map. Well at least tidbits carries SE Canadian coverage while the rest of Canada does not get any coverage, but being dedicated to tropical weather I can see why only SE Canada gets any attention. However I tend to find myself a little disappointed with the lack of real weather coverage in that regard. You're in no mans land on most of the model guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Gravity wave feedback on the 3K NAM for sure, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I won’t be surprised at all at icier looks today . meh. NAM is just slow to catch up. Come tomorrow morning we'll all be in the dumps since it's going to be .25" of ice with some slop snow and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 So forgive me if someone's already mentioned, but the NAM is a snow storm wrt the 2nd half of the main deal Friday, where that does the old collapsing snow/rain line... It could be fascinating along Rt 2, where a potentially extended period of ZR/accretion transitions directly to a snow and increase in wind as that low deepens underneath and we start ramping up a bit more iso. wind response. If there is loading ..that ups the grid implications in those regions - just talking this solution. But, I gotta say, this run overall looks like it corrected smack into my early thoughts and musings about how odd the BL handling looks with these models trying to take the low through a region that "should," given the total synoptic circumstances/evolution, have more resistance in place. This run simply ticks the low track to where it really should. Sorry to say, it's not exactly an unbelievable solution ...out side of west Atlantic Jovian mlv wind maxes that is.. ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 The cold look at the sfc inland definitely makes sense from a meteorological standpoint. When you have mesolows moving off E MA and into the gulf of Maine, you have no mechanism for warming other than latent heat release...but the position of those mesolows will act to drain lower dews to offset the latent heat...the question is which one is stronger. (Usually the mesolows win when they are in that position) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: You're in no mans land on most of the model guidance. Weathermodels.com has excellent Canada maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Weathermodels.com has excellent Canada maps Sure on paywalled, But most look for the freebies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 16 minutes ago, J.Spin said: I think you’d mentioned she’s at UVM? For UVM specifically to call an official snow day/winter weather day closing it typically has to be something very impactful – it’s probably a once-a-decade sort of occurrence. Since a majority of the students can simply walk to class from their dorms or downtown, the travel isn’t a big issue, and the equipment is on hand to handle most storms. It’s more common for individual classes to be cancelled if professors that live out of town can’t get it due to travel issues. Even without official cancellation though, substantial winter storm days often still feel like snow days because people will trim their schedules for travel reasons, and with the ski culture atmosphere around here you’ll find a lot of people prioritizing that and potentially planning their schedule around it. The local primary/secondary schools will certainly call snow days for much less snow, depending on the timing and intensity of the snowfall. Thanks! Yes she’s at UVM. I told her pretty much what you described-plan on snow but no snow day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 SO at 54 hours ... the NAM: *IF* the evolution taking place in this chart below is correct, and you are icing west of I-95/N of the Pike in SNE at this period in time ... you are ending that way, or snow - particularly considering the other physical processes going on in total with this thing... That's your fate - question is ..is this correct. Hint, I think it is more so than not given the nearer termed BL conditioning/pre we are setting up leading in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 oh wait..I'm not savvy ... are we not supposed to repost P-weather products? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 30 minutes ago, Ogmios said: On a personnel note between us Canadians I wish they would carry Canadian coverage if you know what I mean, my area is barely on the map with Halifax barely off the map. Well at least tidbits carries SE Canadian coverage while the rest of Canada does not get any coverage, but being dedicated to tropical weather I can see why only SE Canada gets any attention. However I tend to find myself a little disappointed with the lack of real weather coverage in that regard. Yeah pivotalwx is tougher for atlantic canada. But they have western, central, and eastern canada domains for gfs, gdps, and rdps. They dont have ecwmf ukmet or nam32 data for eastern canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Sure on paywalled, But most look for the freebies. I would think 10 bucks a month for a Canadian looking for better weather resources would be manageable for most. 33 cents a day and you can cancel after winter. IDK as a hobbyist it is worth it. I think weather.us has great Canada maps too and its free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I would think 10 bucks a month for a Canadian looking for better weather resources would be manageable for most. 33 cents a day and you can cancel after winter. IDK as a hobbyist it is worth it. I think weather.us has great Canada maps too and its free We have pros here that don't or won't pay, And i think many hobbyist fall in that category, I'm probably one of the exceptions as i pay for 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I would think 10 bucks a month for a Canadian looking for better weather resources would be manageable for most. 33 cents a day and you can cancel after winter. IDK as a hobbyist it is worth it. I think weather.us has great Canada maps too and its free We dont get the fancy pivotalwx sounding coverage though. At least I thought that's why he was referring to given I mentioned pivotalwx to tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: SO at 54 hours ... the NAM: *IF* the evolution taking place in this chart below is correct, and you are icing west of I-95/N of the Pike in SNE at this period in time ... you are ending that way, or snow - particularly considering the other physical processes going on in total with this thing... That's your fate - question is ..is this correct. Hint, I think it is more so than not given the nearer termed BL conditioning/pre we are setting up leading in. You're good. They're all free and watermarked. They're trying to support themselves via donations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 The NAM couldn't be more different from 6z with the forcing tomorrow morning. It's like Mr. Magoo throwing darts every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: We dont get the fancy pivotalwx sounding coverage though. At least I thought that's why he was referring to given I mentioned pivotalwx to tip. True but there is so much. I mean unless you are a pro needing more you can pretty much get exact outputs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: True but there is so much. I mean unless you are a pro you can pretty much get exact outputs Yeah the only thing that annoys me about those is you often miss the warm nose between 850 and 700. I think I mentioned that pivotalwx soundings have 800. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Yeah the only thing that annoys me about those is you often miss the warm nose between 850 and 700. I think I mentioned that pivotalwx soundings have 800. Composite qpf maps on weather.us account for 800 from what I read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: We have pros here that don't or won't pay, And i think many hobbyist fall in that category, I'm probably one of the exceptions as i pay for 3. I pay for wxbell and f5, formerly Eurowx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: You're good. They're all free and watermarked. They're trying to support themselves via donations. Maybe he will figure out the regional maps next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Composite qpf maps on weather.us account for 800 from what I read Ahh well that's good. Sometimes those clown maps can be too snowy because they're including ice pellets or because they aren't referencing those warmer layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 That run is close to pinging here even for most of the front end. Bump that H8 warm nose up another 1-2C and it's very little snow until the end when we flip back to snow toward the end of part 2. Gotta get at least a few inches of pure snow down before we get bead blasted or else I'm not going to be able to blow the sleet well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I pay for wxbell and f5, formerly Eurowx SV and Weathermodels.com, But i donate to Patron (Pivotal) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 YYT looks like a disaster it's already hard to get around. Glad I'm in BUF until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSwx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Weathermodels.com has excellent Canada maps Well if I can’t get snow or ice at least I’ll get a boat load of rain and 60 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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