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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz
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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

No yawn for our ORH county , Berks, Greens,friends

It trending that way though. Some of that QPF is snow/sleet so the ZR component is going to be less impactful. We really want to see those 2-2.5 QPF runs return if we’re talking high end. 

It could still be pretty treacherous. Like a quarter to half inch of ice. But we’ll see. Might be less if that QPF hole keeps expanding. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It trending that way though. Some of that QPF is snow/sleet so the ZR component is going to be less impactful. We really want to see those 2-2.5 QPF runs return if we’re talking high end. 

It could still be pretty treacherous. Like a quarter to half inch of ice. But we’ll see. Might be less if that QPF hole keeps expanding. 

When was 2.5 qpf on the board? 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

00z to 12z 2/4 had a few runs of 2-2.5 on various model guidance.

I have found best to use EPS until 24 hours out. Those inflated numbers rarely work out. Qpf being the worst forecasts. Best qpf to me always was Pike south with another max in the deformation axis in NNE

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It trending that way though. Some of that QPF is snow/sleet so the ZR component is going to be less impactful. We really want to see those 2-2.5 QPF runs return if we’re talking high end. 

It could still be pretty treacherous. Like a quarter to half inch of ice. But we’ll see. Might be less if that QPF hole keeps expanding. 

Exactly.

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah forgive me ...I only bother with the granular free sources out there - I don't think the Euro is nearly prophetic enough to charge for that area of ECMWFs corp, when I can get to the same sort of predictive skill using sources that really are free, combined with experience and intelligence ..but that's just me.   

Anyway, if that's true, those are impressive depths.  The 12z run yesterday began looking more coalesced with the total evolution of this event.  Less like wave one and two and three ..and whatever, and more like the first wave was really just the arm of a warm boundary S and overrunning getting going out ahead because of the fast flow stretching and exciting that perhaps ahead of typology for leading lows... Then, the main thrust aloft careens off Jersey with that tube of insane 130 kt 500mb jet core tunneling it's way S of the Cape and we get a bomb-esque and all that.   

Seems the 00z is really just continuing along that theme. 

Use pivotalwx. It's free and full res. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I expect plenty of sarcastic anger in here over the next 36-48 hours.  

Haters gon hate. 

;) I completely get it.

Freak's theme song?

 

Meanwhile I have a WWA for 4-8 inches with some mix too.  Guess Saturday will be a driveway clearing day here.

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29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah forgive me ...I only bother with the granular free sources out there - I don't think the Euro is nearly prophetic enough to charge for that area of ECMWFs corp, when I can get to the same sort of predictive skill using sources that really are free, combined with experience and intelligence ..but that's just me.   

Anyway, if that's true, those are impressive depths.  The 12z run yesterday began looking more coalesced with the total evolution of this event.  Less like wave one and two and three ..and whatever, and more like the first wave was really just the arm of a warm boundary S and overrunning getting going out ahead because of the fast flow stretching and exciting that perhaps ahead of typology for leading lows... Then, the main thrust aloft careens off Jersey with that tube of insane 130 kt 500mb jet core tunneling it's way S of the Cape and we get a bomb-esque and all that.   

Seems the 00z is really just continuing along that theme. 

Go to pivotal weather . Free. Hi Res Euro grids and Ukmet temps, mid levels, basically full ukie model details (free)

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32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Weather.us is free Tip, we keep telling you and the 10 dollars a month if you skip your Starbucks latte twice pays for weathermodels.com That way we don't have to correct your assumptive posts constantly, intelligence aside

Not sure why the adversarial and/or denigration is really necessary - 

But, you don't correct me.  You don't possess the necessary education, nor acumen, despite all protestations you purport - you don't.  And unfortunately for you and your weird problems with acceptance of others ... I am good at this shit.  Sorry - deal 

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure why the adversarial and/or denigration is really necessary - 

But, you don't correct me.  You don't possess the necessary education, nor acumen, despite all protestations you purport - you don't.  And unfortunately for you and your weird problems with acceptance of others ... I am good at this shit.  Sorry - deal 

Don't understand why you insist on posting assumptions when free access is available.  Perhaps you may have missed the 40 or 50 posts with pivotal or weather.us maps over the last year. I have a bachelor's degree in Environmental Science with graduate level courses.  Just because you can throw up a bunch of verbiage doesn't make you better educated.  If you are so damn smart why aren't you in the Met field as a star? Come off your high horse. 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I was just messaging how I like the possibility for Friday to trend better for SNE. 

The nam sort of fits Into that . The high is building in and this has been trending progressive and slightly colder and nam 850’s need 1 tick or so S for many to see a warning event in N SNE

Those soundings are snowy for many

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35 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Use pivotalwx. It's free and full res. 

On a personnel note between us Canadians I wish they would carry Canadian coverage if you know what I mean, my area is barely on the map with Halifax barely off the map.  Well at least tidbits carries SE Canadian coverage while the rest of Canada does not get any coverage, but being dedicated to tropical weather I can see why only SE Canada gets any attention.  However I tend to find myself a little disappointed with the lack of real weather coverage in that regard.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The NAM also had 170kts at 500mb off the east coast. That's absurd. Not sure if that's correct, but that has to be uncharted territory.

Yeah ...I'm not so sure the 'idea' is wrong though... We've been doing similarly all season in this gradient saturation when/where excessive velocities are being modeled just beneath those "pressed" right quadrants of jet maxes.. I mean, even way out in advance of the exit regions of those S/W mechanics, the 'over-ridge' arcs are boasting 70kts at times! Really is quite remarkable. I started noticing double flag wind pips back in Dec and thought the same thing ..not sure that is correct. But multiple guidance sources were displaying those, then. Then, we start getting all these ground-based speed records being set by commercial airliners flying west to east trajectories ...and well, at least we know things are fast, huh -  

Might be interesting to revisit and see if that verifies ?  

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