ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 06z NAM trended back south with part 2 but doesn’t look like other 06z guidance moved much....so tossed for now. If the GFS verified, that would be low impact for just about anyone south of dendrite to Mitch....very little QPF on that model. Even other guidance has lessened the QPF though nothing like the GFS. That really heavy stuff stays on the south coast or just offshore so the risk for big time icing is diminishing if that is the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Gfs is still parakeets and bengal tigers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Euro still pretty chilly at surface, but always seems to be too cool at least aloft with these a few days out as it comes NW. it had the monumental fail a few weeks ago in Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 It also is less on front end like gfs. So looks like it got that wrong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 BTV has maps out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 6z EURO ticked a bit cooler up here. What a shellacking on Friday. Hard to hate this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Oof at that 00z Euro run. Keeps ramping up QPF. Friday’s wave is real juicy. The mid level frontogenisis should have someone up here just getting destroyed. That run was a healthy 12-18” for a fairly wide swath. For you and a wide swath where no one else lives or cares about (except skiers). The other 90% of the board are fully prepped for another round of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 6z EURO ticked a bit cooler up here. What a shellacking on Friday. Hard to hate this look. We’re all at the edge of our seats awaiting parking lot pics. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It also is less on front end like gfs. So looks like it got that wrong too. What did it get wrong? The storm hasn't happened yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 This thread is slowly morphing into powder freak talking to himself while everyone else gets soaking rains. Congrats PF seems appropriate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like utility poles are coming down in ORH. God i hope so. Hubby and I huddled close together at the basement wood stove while branch bombs carpet the ground outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We’re all at the edge of our seats awaiting parking lot pics. I expect plenty of sarcastic anger in here over the next 36-48 hours. Haters gon hate. I completely get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: What did it get wrong? The storm hasn't happened yet Is that you Jimmy? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I will be in the Eustis/Rangeley area Saturday, Giddy up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 So what's up with the 3k NAM 958 at the NJ coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: I will be in the Eustis/Rangeley area Saturday, Giddy up. Where men are men and women are as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: So what's up with the 3k NAM 958 at the NJ coast lol Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 20 minutes ago, Whineminster said: God i hope so. Hubby and I huddled close together at the basement wood stove while branch bombs carpet the ground outside. QPF is further south now which may mitigate the really big ice threat over interior MA/S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: I will be in the Eustis/Rangeley area Saturday, Giddy up. Polar Blast weekend, it will be busy. And this is just what they needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 19 minutes ago, dryslot said: I will be in the Eustis/Rangeley area Saturday, Giddy up. Right on the 6-8" line. Maybe our little elevation will help. Congrats to the County as they rack up some more white gold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Sometimes it seems like the climate belt's already shifted and this is like what the north Phillie weather dorks used brow beat over back a quarter century ago. I mean, we get 27 DP air richly introduced into the region and a damming source - we shouldn't be dealing with lows cutting through ALB ( GFS ) Hard to say if that tact is just an artifice of the GFS. I can host some reasoning that sounds scientific and Meteorologically clad but ..it could also be proven science fiction in this scenario too. It's been a recurrent theme this winter, veracious theoretical application proves ...not veracious - seemingly by an agency. Muah hahahaha Anyway, frustration aside, this really does look like even the Euro is too far NW ... and the low should be squeezed S. of interior SNE. It may just be that we are back to what we were musing about two or three days ago .. how this is a now-cast opportunity. I used the adjective 'nightmare' before ..but I don't think the stakes are high enough for that. The implication difference ( sensibly ) may not matter.. If the low goes west, there will be a triple point. If the low stays south because of BL forcing, either way, 850 mb roasts the 0 C isotherm to central NE as a destiny it would seem...and that probably extends ZR in either scenario a considerable distance N. The GFS' QPF void - I wonder - if is partially a mechanical feed-back from it's bad BL thermodynamics. It seems to go out of the way to organize the low into a primary structure ... by somehow avoiding/negating BL forcing altogether. That's what the voiding in there is about..It's about quasi-splitting the QPF field around the cyclone model when its cyclone is over North Adams Massachusetts - its particular rendition of that model has a bizarre BL that's it own physics are responsible for. Hence... 'feed-back' But that could be science fiction. I know what I just said is plausible... Either way, that null region was hinted by some other guidance' up to these recent runs, too to maybe not something to ignore. Plus... storm track climo is moving W-N everywhere all over the hemisphere as is proven in a host of papers I can refer folks too..and this season's correction behavior seems to either be coincidentally doing that anyway, or, is a expressing it.. So maybe we just need even more BL forcing than our experiences lend us to believing we need these days to keep lows from blithely modeling their way through veritable mountain ranges like that... jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 QPF is essentially cut in half....yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sometimes it seems like the climate belt's already shifted and this is like what the north Phillie weather dorks used brow beat over back a quarter century ago. I mean, we get 27 DP air richly introduced into the region and a damming source - we shouldn't be dealing with lows cutting through ALB ( GFS ) Hard to say if that tact is just an artifice of the GFS. I can host some reasoning that sounds scientific and Meteorologically clad but ..it could also be proven science fiction in this scenario too. It's been a recurrent theme this winter, veracious theoretical application proves ...not veracious - seemingly by an agency. Muah hahahaha Anyway, frustration aside, this really does look like even the Euro is too far NW ... and the low should be squeeze S. of interior SNE. It may just be that we are back to what we were musing about two or three days ago .. how this is a now-cast opportunity. I used the adjective 'nightmare' before ..but I don't think the stakes are high enough for that. The implication difference ( sensibly ) may not matter.. If the low goes west, there will be a triple point. If the low stays south because of BL forcing, either way, 850 mb roasts the 0 C isotherm to central NE as a destiny it would seem...and that probably extends ZR in either scenario a considerable distance N. The GFS' QPF void - I wonder - if is partially a mechanical feed-back from it's bad BL thermodynamics. It seems to go out of the way to organize the low into a primary structure ... by somehow avoiding/negating BL forcing altogether. That's what the voiding in there is about..It's about quasi-splitting the QPF field around the cyclone model when its cyclone is over North Adams Massachusetts - its particular rendition of that model has a bizarre BL that's it own physics are responsible for. Hence... 'feed-back' But that could be science fiction. I know what I just said is plausible... Either way, that null region was hinted by some other guidance' up to these recent runs, too to maybe not something to ignore. Plus... storm track climo is moving W-N everywhere all over the hemisphere as is proven in a host of papers I can refer folks too..and this season's correction behavior seems to either be coincidentally doing that anyway, or, is a expressing it.. So maybe we just need even more BL forcing than our experiences lend us to believing we need these days to keep lows from blithely modeling their way through veritable mountain ranges like that... jesus Euro has a 972 over my head transferred to 970 in the Gulf of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: QPF is essentially cut in half....yawn. 1.5 to 1.7 seems like that was pretty much as advertised in EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 18 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Right on the 6-8" line. Maybe our little elevation will help. Congrats to the County as they rack up some more white gold Wolfie is heading there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: For you and a wide swath where no one else lives or cares about (except skiers). The other 90% of the board are fully prepped for another round of meh. I VERY much care.. and will be visiting the land of PF this weekend. Driving up from DC starting 6:30pm Thursday night after work. Thinking first wave is starting to clear out by then. Looking at timing, hoping to be past Boston by midnight-ish. Can’t tell exactly but looks like my biggest trouble will be once turning to snow Connecticut rt 91 heading into VT. Dont hate.. par tic i PATE!! Everyone in the forum should come to Stowe. Screw work. Go Euro- ukie combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro has a 972 over my head transferred to 970 in the Gulf of Maine Yeah forgive me ...I only bother with the granular free sources out there - I don't think the Euro is nearly prophetic enough to charge for that area of ECMWFs corp, when I can get to the same sort of predictive skill using sources that really are free, combined with experience and intelligence ..but that's just me. Anyway, if that's true, those are impressive depths. The 12z run yesterday began looking more coalesced with the total evolution of this event. Less like wave one and two and three ..and whatever, and more like the first wave was really just the arm of a warm boundary S and overrunning getting going out ahead because of the fast flow stretching and exciting that perhaps ahead of typology for leading lows... Then, the main thrust aloft careens off Jersey with that tube of insane 130 kt 500mb jet core tunneling it's way S of the Cape and we get a bomb-esque and all that. Seems the 00z is really just continuing along that theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 1.5 to 1.7 seems like that was pretty much as advertised in EPS Just saw the Euro chart that was posted....regardless...yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah forgive me ...I only bother with the granular free sources out there - I don't think the Euro is nearly prophetic enough to charge for that area of ECMWFs corp, when I can get to the same sort of predictive skill using sources that really are free, combined with experience and intelligence ..but that's just me. Anyway, if that's true, those are impressive depths. The 12z run yesterday began looking more coalesced with the total evolution of this event. Less like wave one and two and three ..and whatever, and more like the first wave was really just the arm of a warm boundary S and overrunning getting going out ahead because of the fast flow stretching and exciting that perhaps ahead of typology for leading lows... Then, the main thrust aloft careens off Jersey with that tube of insane 130 kt 500mb jet core tunneling it's way S of the Cape and we get a bomb-esque and all that. Seems the 00z is really just continuing along that theme. Weather.us is free Tip, we keep telling you and the 10 dollars a month if you skip your Starbucks latte twice pays for weathermodels.com That way we don't have to correct your assumptive posts constantly, intelligence aside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just saw the Euro chart that was posted....regardless...yawn. No yawn for our ORH county , Berks, Greens,friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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